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Meet the New Beto, Same as the Old Beto

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Today’s Public Service Announcement! – The “World’s Fastest Train” has been unveiled in Japan, y’all! Guess what? It is designed to sail along at speeds up to … wait for it… 224 miles per hour! Which is, lessee here…. almost half as fast as the average airliner. Almost. Oh, and it won’t be operational until the year 2030, which is coincidentally the year before Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tells us we’re all going to burn up and die if we don’t get rid of air travel and replace it millions of miles of rail lines.

Dear Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other fans of her appeal to abject nitwits, the Green New Deal: This dog don’t hunt. Just thought I’d remind you. Plus, it’s stupid-looking. Seriously, it looks like something out of a 1960s-era cartoon:

Dubbed the Alfa-X, it is capable of reaching speeds of up to 224 mph and consists of ten carriages. Its sleek silver design is matched by its incredible long and pointed nose which stretches for 72 feet n front of it (pictured)

 

Don’t look now, but Irish Bob O’Rourke is about to “reintroduce” himself again. – But the crucial question is, will the mental teenagers in our fake news media fall in love with their former heartthrob one more time?

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The smart money says ‘no’ – it’s really hard to recreate the magic of that first high school crush. Once the bad breakup occurs, there is rarely any going back.

After Irish Bob let it be known late last week that he plans to “launch” his flagging presidential campaign one more time, I’ve been watching to see which U.S. national publication would be the first to do yet another fawning “profile” of him, complete with nasty comments about Ted Cruz, descriptions of El Paso and/or West Texas as “dusty”, misrepresentations about the origins of the fake nickname he gave to himself, and the required comparisons to some Kennedy or another. Would it be Vanity Fair one more time? Might Rolling Stone jump in again? How about the New York Times or the Washington Post? They’ve all done it before – would they find the waters to be still warm and give their ex-boyfriend another date to the local Pizza Hut?

Uh, no. As it turns out, the O’Rourke campaign apparently was unable to even catch coffee at Starbucks with any of its fake journalist exes, having to resort instead to grabbing a sandwich at Wichy Wich with some reporter from the UK Guardian. And what a soggy sandwich it turns out to be, which is only fitting for such a horrifically-run campaign.

Oh, the piece has the required “dusty” reference contained in literally every profile ever done about Irish Bob, when it describes El Paso as “the dusty, sunbaked border town in Texas where he was born”. The writer even goes so far as to outright lie about the fake nickname, calling O’Rourke “the tall white guy with the funny first name” in the piece’s opening paragraph. My goodness, the piece even makes the jump to include a quote from one of Irish Bob’s teenage flames (no doubt referred to him by the O’Rourke campaign), someone named Maggie Asfahani, who makes her living as – guess what? – a writer!  Because of course she does.

As if it is helpful, Asfahani says she is responsible for the famous photo of Irish Bob wearing a dress in a promo for his punk band, Foss: “I want to put on the record, that is my dress he’s wearing,” she said.

Oh.

Image result for beto in a dress

No doubt the O’Rourke campaign had longed for the standard puff piece that their candidate has become used to receiving from the national U.S. media and Texas-based outlets like the Texas Tribune and Houston Chronicle, but this one does not fit the U.S. media’s cut-n-paste mold. There is no comparison to anyone named Kennedy, and the Guardian’s piece is otherwise a fairly objective recital of O’Rourke’s political history and inconsistencies.

Not the launch – or re-launch – our hero was seeking.

Like everything else Irish Bob has done since losing his Texas senate race against Senator Cruz last November, this “re-introduction” comes too late, and displays nothing more prominently than a singular lack of situational awareness on this part.

In politics, it is crucial for a candidate to strike while the iron is hot, an aspect of the game that Donald Trump understands better than any national figure since Bill Clinton. Last November, the media’s best boyfriend could have made himself into an instant front-runner in the Democrat nomination race by announcing his candidacy the day after his loss.

Yes, doing that would have been ‘too soon’ and ‘presumptuous’ according to the conventional wisdom. But O’Rourke’s image at that time was made by being presumptuous and going against the conventional grain. By dawdling around and waiting to announce his campaign in March, he traded that image for one of being indecisive and unreliable, which is pretty much his life’s history.

And that’s it – he can’t get that back. The opportunity to stand out in the race is now gone – the field is too crowded and the fickle teen-mentality media has moved on to other crushes. If you want a comparison to 2016 and the crowded GOP field that sought the nomination, Irish Bob is this cycle’s Scott Walker, the “hot” candidate who everyone thought at one point would be that year’s BIG DEAL, but never was.

Walker left the 2016 race before it ever actually even got to 2016, ending his dead-broke candidacy in September of 2015, after just two months of debates in which he had utterly failed to make a good impression. Irish Bob is probably too self-absorbed and clueless to make a similarly-fast exit from the stage, but he might as well.

He’s done.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Why Californians Can’t Wait to Get to Texas, Part 6,572

Today’s Campaign Update, Part III
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Two interesting articles today on studies conducted by two different groups shed light on why so many people are leaving Democrat-run California to move to Texas, where no Democrat has won a statewide election in a quarter of a century.

The first study, from the very liberal Brookings Institution, cites Texas as having 3 of the 5 most popular destination cities for Millennial professionals: Dallas, Austin and Houston. The other two cities that round out the top 5 in this analysis are Denver and Seattle. Note the absence of any city from California, even those that reside in the Silicon Valley region of the state.

As reported by the Houston Chronicle, Houston has averaged importing a net 15,000 young adults between the ages of 25 to 34 each of the last five years, while cities like Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, San Diego and Miami have lost between 7,000 and 19,000 each of those years. Of those five largest population-losing cities, only Miami is part of a state that is not a Democrat stronghold, although the city itself certainly is. Of the five cities leading the gainers, only Seattle is part of a predominantly-Democrat state, although Colorado is now leaning in that direction.

With Seattle’s mushrooming homeless issue and a Democrat city government that is now actively encouraging the business community to go elsewhere, it will be very interesting to see the results of the next Brookings study five years from now. Ditto Denver, where Colorado is now going through its first year of a totally-leftist-Democrat-dominated state government, which is going about implementing a whole raft of radical policies, most of which will negatively impact the business community there.

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Houston skyline

 

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Los Angeles skyline

The second very interesting study comes to us from the leftist American Lung Association, and its annual State of the Air report. CNN’s report on that study contains the following very interesting passage:

An increasing number — more than 20.5 million people — lived in counties with year-round particle pollution problems. Topping that list was the Fresno-Madera-Hanford, California, area; followed by Bakersfield, California; Fairbanks, Alaska; Visalia, California; Los Angeles-Long Beach, California; San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, California; the Pittsburgh-New Castle Weirton, Pennsylvania-Ohio-West Virginia area; El Centro, California; the Cleveland-Akron-Canton, Ohio, area; and Medford-Grants Pass, Oregon.

So, 11 of the cities with the worst air pollution happen to be in California, despite decades of mindless radical leftwing policies implemented by Democrat-dominated legislatures and a parade of liberal governors. The CNN report naturally tries to blame it all on Donald Trump – because of course it does – but it ignores the reality that California’s air quality standards have been stricter than those of the EPA for decades now. None of that state’s issues have a damn thing to do with a President who has only been in office for two years.

Note which state does not place a single city on that list: Texas. Which, as mentioned above, has been governed by a purely-Republican state government for 25 years now.

This not a coincidence, folks.

Of course, as I’ve discussed in the past, the problem with all these migrating Californians is that they leave that state to get away from all the high-tax, anti-business policies enacted by Democrats, and then they move to a new state and just keep on voting for more Democrats. Nobody in our fake news media will acknowledge it, but that’s one of the main reasons why Colorado has transitioned from a reliable GOP state to a near-reliable Democrat state over the last 20 years.

That is also why the states of Arizona and Nevada are verging on a similar transition, and it’s why we saw the winning margins of winning GOP candidates in Texas narrow in 2018 as compared to previous election cycles in the 21st century.

So, right now Texas has far more attractive and less polluted cities than California, but as more and more native Californians leave their home state to get to Texas, that will all eventually begin to change.

As a 7th generation native Texan myself, I’d prefer that President Trump build a wall around California than along the Rio Grande, simply to preserve the health of my home state.

God Bless Texas.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Speaking of Political Losers, Heeeeeere’s Beto!

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is an actress. – Everyone should watch this video. Trust me, just watch it. It’ll be the best 23 minutes you invest this week. I’m going to keep this pinned at the top of each piece I post for the next few days in order to maximize its – and her – exposure.

And speaking of political losers. – Sometimes, events just follow the Campaign Update around.  Our focus yesterday morning was on the Democrats’ Ongoing Fascination With Political Losers, and – viola! – this morning, Irish Bob “Beto” O’Rourke is formally announcing his candidacy.

All the girls – and most of the guys – who pose as fake journalists in our fake news media are swooning and cooing sweet nothings they hope will eventually meet their precious Beto’s ears. Fake news hacks from El Paso to Austin to New York City to Washington D.C. are all lining up at the door to their fake editors’ offices, er, cubicles, vying for the glorious assignment of following the jumpy, sweaty, skate-boarding, 46 year-old around the country in the hopes that he will give them a passing glance, maybe one of his crooked smiles, or even – gasp! – repeat their name back to them during an evasive answer to one of their softball questions.

Oh, the glory! What more could a girl – or guy – possibly want amid a miserable life spent faking the news for a living?

The Texas Tribune, an Austin-based digital publication that acted as a pro bono PR firm for Irish Bob’s failed senate campaign last year, led with this paragraph in its story on this morning’s announcement:

“After months of intense speculation, Beto O’Rourke is entering the presidential race Thursday, marking an extraordinary rise from little-known El Paso congressman a few years ago to potentially formidable White House contender.”

Ah, so it’s been an “extraordinary rise”, has it, this progression from little-known congressman to senate race loser to presidential candidate currently pulling 6% in the Democrat preference polls? I suppose we should feel lucky the writer resisted the impulse to use the word “meteoric” instead.

To be fair, Irish Bob has been truly extraordinary at two things thus far:

  • He raised an extraordinary amount of out-of-state money in his senate race against Ted Cruz, ultimately out-spending Cruz by a 3-to-1 margin in a losing effort; and
  • He has attracted an extraordinary amount of free media from the fawning press, possibly more than any politician in U.S. history not named Obama or Clinton.

But maybe even more impressive is how many fake media outlets have chosen to publish pretty much the exact same “profile” of Irish Bob. Hell, Vanity Fair just put another one out there yesterday, complete with a photo spread by Annie Lebovitz.

Every profile of Irish Bob published over the past year reads like the breathless prose of a lovesick college coed, and they’re all structured as if torn from a page of a paint-by-the-numbers book:

  • Beto is “Kennedy-esque. Indeed, if that word does not appear in the story, it is not an official profile;
  • His hometown of El Paso, population of 683,577, is described as “small”, “backwater”, “isolated”, or my favorite, “dusty;”
  • He sweats a lot, and it shows. Swooning fake reporters spend a ton of time admiring Beto’s perspiration;
  • He rides a skateboard;
  • Hey, didja know he used to be in a punk rock band?;
  • The perpetually-jumpy politician with more tics than a stray dog has “nervous energy.” Oh;
  • His eyes are “piercing,” because hey, how else do you describe the eyes of someone who is “Kennedy-esque?” Just be glad they didn’t say “dreamy,” because that’s what they’re all really thinking.

Pablum for the masses, all in an effort to promote the candidacy of a guy whose main accomplishment in life – outside of having an admittedly-lovely family – is having raised $75 million in a senate race that he lost.

The conventional wisdom out there today seems to be that O’Rourke is getting into the race in an effort to become Joe Biden’s running mate in 2020. While I think that vastly underestimates Irish Bob’s massive ego, wouldn’t that outcome be wonderful?

Think about it: How would the rapidly-growing social justice warrior wing of the Democrat support base react if its 2020 convention were to nominate a ticket consisting of two of the most pasty-white men ever born in America outside of Wisconsin? It would be glorious.

So Irish Bob is officially in, and the Democrat fascination with political losers continues. I would say let the fawning fake news media slobbering over “Beto” begin, but as Vanity Fair and the Texas Tribune and many others demonstrate this morning, it began long ago.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Some Stunning New Facts About Texas and its Oil Industry

Today’s Energy Update
(Because Energy Fuels Our Lives)

#GodBlessTexas. – Last week at Shale Magazine, I put up a piece detailing some “Fun Facts” about the state of the oil and gas industry in Texas. That piece began with the following statement:

“Here’s a fun fact: If Texas were an independent country, it would now stand as the 5th-largest oil-producing nation on Planet Earth, behind only the rest of the U.S., Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. According to projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Texas will pass Iraq in this measure of economic might later this year.”

Boy, things sure do escalate quickly in the oil industry. Here we are, barely a week later, and the truth about that little factoid has already changed again, at least if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has its numbers right.  EIA now says that the U.S. averaged 12 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in January, the first time it has ever reached level. The agency further projects that the Permian Basin alone will produce 4 million bopd in March, roughly 1/3rd of total U.S. production.

So, before we get to some new amazing facts about all of this, let’s do a little math.  First, roughly 85% of total Permian Basin production comes from Texas, which in March would come to about 3.4 million bopd. Next, add in EIA’s estimate that the other behemoth Texas shale play, the Eagle Ford, will produce about 1.3 million bopd, and you are at a stunning 4.7 million. Oh, and there’s also all that oil coming out of deep south Texas, east Texas and the Texas panhandle, and all of a sudden you find Texas producing in excess of 5 million bopd.

All of which means that as of today, the great State of Texas, all by itself, would now rank 4th globally in crude oil production if it were an independent country, having now blown past Iraq.  Oh, and if the EIA’s projected trend for Permian production growth holds true, Texas will in all likelihood surpass the rest of the United States in total production at some point in either late 2021 or early 2022, and become the third-largest producer in the world.

But that’s not all.

EIA’s March projection of 4 million bopd coming out of the Permian Basin alone means that single basin, were it to secede from the union, would suddenly rank as the 5th-largest oil producing nation on earth, behind Iraq as well as the other countries mentioned above. The other amazing but little known fact about the Permian is that it ranks as one of the largest natural gas plays on earth, second in the U.S. only to the mammoth Marcellus Shale play in the northeast.

How incredible is that? Look at it this way:  Just a decade ago, the Permian Basin was considered to be a “dead” oil play. Downtown Midland was basically a ghost town, and the only real oil business going on out there was a bunch of small companies buying up old, depleted oil fields and going in to rework the wells in order to squeeze a few more barrels per day out of them.

Today, just 10 year later, it is the focal point of the global oil industry, the driver of booming economies of Texas and New Mexico, the main driver of the country’s burgeoning oil and LNG exports businesses. Because industries like chemicals, plastics, fertilizers and many, many more use petroleum products and natural gas as feedstocks, the Permian is also one of the the major facilitators of our country’s manufacturing renaissance over the last few years.

Stunning. And a real blessing.

God Bless Texas, indeed.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Apache and the Alpine High: Changing the Way the Oilfield Works

Monday Energy Update

(Because Energy Fuels Our Lives)

“My story starts in 1956 when I was one year old, and M. King Hubbard made a prediction about ‘peak oil.’ He said somewhere around 1970 U.S. production would peak at about 10 million barrels per day and then it would fall off over the next 25-30 years to about 4 million bpd, and the U.S. would be completely dependent on foreign oil.”

Steve Keenan is, to put it mildly, a high-energy individual. Apache Corporation’s Senior Vice President for Worldwide Exploration, he is a 40-year veteran of the oil and gas industry, a geoscientist who has seen it all and done most of it. As we start our interview last November, he is seated at his desk at the company’s offices on the western edge of San Antonio, trying to describe to this writer the series of events that led to the discovery of the massive Alpine High resource in the Delaware Basin of far West Texas. As we will soon see, it was a discovery that required a “cradle to grave” kind of approach, and true to form, Keenan was starting his explanation at the cradle.

“That’s important because people really believed what Hubbard was saying,” he continues. “And the amazing thing to me is that he was practically correct — oil did peak at 10 million bpd around 1970, and it did fall and we were disproportionally dependent on imports for a long time. But it didn’t fall in the logistic distribution curve that he predicted.” To emphasize this point, Keenan pulls up a line graph of the last 45 years of U.S. oil production onto his computer display. “If you’ll notice, there are changes in the slope of the curve, and it is those changes in slope that are the story of my career.

“Up until about 2005 the industry was involved in what we used to just call ‘exploration’ but which we now refer to as ‘conventional exploration,’ since we now have exploration in ‘unconventional’ or ‘resource’ plays,” he says, describing the different terms used to differentiate the sand and limestone formations from which almost all oil and gas was extracted during the industry’s first 150 years and the tight sands, coal and shale formations that have produced most of it in the U.S. during the course of the 21st century.

“All these changes in slope are important because what they represent are the introduction of new ideas, really creative and adaptive thinking, so that we could slow or arrest that decline. Or some kind of new engineering capability or new technology that didn’t exist previously. But mainly it was creative thinking.”

He points to a specific spot on the graph. “This is where I come in. I actually first got hired in 1978, after the Arab oil embargo and the discovery at Prudhoe Bay. Like a lot of people my age with my credentials (he has an MS degree, undergrad in geology with a master’s thesis topic pertaining to spectral analysis of seismic signals – most of his contemporary MS colleagues studying Geophysics were writing about the evaluation of gravity or magnetic data) I began my career working in frontier areas where all the big hopes were. The main suspects at that time were in Alaska and California.”

Indeed, the progression of Keenan’s career, which, before coming to Apache Corp. in June 2014 included stops at Cities Service Oil Company, SOHIO Petroleum, BP, Marathon and EOG Resources, reads basically as compendium of some of the largest major oil discoveries of the last 40 years.

As Keenan notes, the early years of his career, spent at Cities Service, were spent exploring for oil on the North Slope of Alaska and in California, where he worked on the huge Milne Point field 35 miles west of Prudhoe Bay, and also on the Point Arguello field in the Pacific Ocean waters offshore California, just north of Santa Barbara.

While working as Regional Project Manager and as Chief Geophysicist at a domestic independent oil company from 1985 through 1997, Keenan gained a wealth of international experience, exploring for oil faraway places like Norway, Oman, Spain, Argentina and Egypt. Keenan moved over to Marathon Oil in 1997, and spent the next five years working on assets in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Angola.

Keenan next moved to become Division Exploration Manager of the South Texas operations for EOG Resources. There, he led the company’s highly-successful development of the Middle Wilcox tight sands assets in South Texas. Then, in 2008, his team made a major new discovery when it drilled, hydraulically fractured and completed the first successful horizontal well in the giant Eagle Ford Shale formation.

Wait, you’re thinking, didn’t Petrohawk drill that first successful Eagle Ford well? That is the common story, and, to be fair, Petrohawk was the first company to publicly announce a successful Eagle Ford completion, in October of 2008.

In 2008, EOG made a strategic decision to add more liquids to its portfolio of assets as the natural gas market in the U.S. began to become over-supplied. Keenan and his team were directed by then-EOG CEO Mark Papa at that time to go find more oil, even though it had been highly successful in drilling for the natural gas in the Wilcox formation for many years by then.

In the summer of that year, Keenan’s team which included current Apache employees Chester Pieprzica, Roberto Alaniz and Navneet Behl, drilled the Tully C. Gardner #94H, a 4,200’ lateral well in Webb County, Texas, which is in the wet gas window of the Eagle Ford Shale, and brought it online in August. So, why does the Petrohawk well continue to get the credit? Because EOG made the strategic decision to not make an announcement of its new discovery.

“At EOG, we decided that there was no value to us in telling people that,” Keenan says with a chuckle. “We convinced our management to move over to Karnes County (to the east) [to start up an expanded leasing program]. We then moved our rig over into Karnes County and drilled what was the first crude oil well in the Eagle Ford Shale.

“If you think about it, what business advantage would we [EOG] have to tell anybody about that first well?” Keenan says, noting that doing so would only serve to bring new competitors into the play area. “When we drilled that first well, we had about 15,000 acres under lease in the Eagle Ford,” he notes. In the coming months, EOG’s acreage position ultimately grew to more than 575,000 acres, and the company became one of the handful of biggest players in the Eagle Ford drilling boom that lasted through 2014, and is now seeing something of a revival today.

Read the Rest at Shalemag.com

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Crude And LNG Export Facilities Work To Solve Bottlenecks Before They Can Start

Several recent big items of positive news relating to exports of oil and LNG along the Texas Gulf Coast might come just in time to help allay fears of new, downstream bottlenecks for production coming out of the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale plays.

The current bottleneck, of course, involves a lack of needed pipeline takeaway capacity for oil and gas coming out of the Permian Basin. But a dozen or more pipeline expansions and new-build projects currently in progress promise to quickly alleviate that situation during the course of 2019 and 2020. The vast majority of takeaway capacity in these projects will be designed to move the production to ports along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, with several of the lines picking up crude and natural gas produced in the Eagle Ford along the way.

This outlook has in recent weeks produced a new concern that, as those new pipelines get filled up with more and more volumes coming out of West and South Texas, new bottlenecks could materialize related to the capacity along the Gulf Coast to refine and export the production. Several recent developments in the Corpus Christi area hold the promise of heading the potential new bottlenecks off before the can form.

Where natural gas is concerned, Cheniere Energy this week was able to load its first shipment of LNG out of its new Corpus Christi LNG terminal . The Maria Energy tanker, which has a capacity of 174,000 cubic meters of LNG, left the terminal with a full load on December 11, the first load of LNG to ever ship out of a Texas-based facility. “Exporting the first commissioning cargo of LNG from Texas demonstrates Cheniere’s ability to deliver projects safely and ahead of schedule, including the first greenfield LNG export facility in the lower 48 states,” Cheniere chief executive Jack Fusco said.

Read the Rest Here

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Swalwell 2020: Nuking Gun Owners For Peace

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Hey, who is Marianne Williamson? –  I honestly have no idea who this person is, but the newsfakers at Politico think it is news that a person named Marianne Williamson is running for the Democrat Party’s presidential nomination in 2020.  According to Politico, she is a “spiritualist” – whatever that means – who ran an independent campaign for a California congressional seat in 2014, and failed. That race was won by Ted Lieu, one of the most despicable Democrats in today’s congress, so maybe we should be wishing she had won instead. She certainly could not be any worse.

Williamson’s main claim to legitimacy in the political arena appears to be that she is a “pal of Oprah Winfrey.”  Given that the two high-profile Democrat candidates Oprah campaigned for this year – Florida’s Andrew Gillum and Georgia’s Stacey Abrams – have been declared loooooooooosers in their gubernatorial races over the last 24 hours, it’s hard to see what value the Oprah seal of approval really has any more.

But hey, in case you’re interested and have actually heard of Marianne Williamson, she’s running. There you go.

Speaking of despicable California congressmen, Eric Swalwell did this on Friday:

Yes, all you gun owners out there, Democrat Rep. Swalwell responded to a guy on Twitter who said that the government would have to kill him to take his guns away by assuring the guy that the government would indeed kill him, with nukes. This promise to nuke gun owners will no doubt play extremely well with the demented Democrat base voters and dramatically enhance Swalwell’s chances in his 2020 presidential run.

Can’t wait to get me one of them “Swalwell 2020:  Nuke ’em for Peace!” bumper stickers.

Holy crap. You seriously cannot make this stuff up.

And since we’re speaking of despicable Democrat politicians… – The aforementioned Oprah acolyte Stacey Abrams “halted” her Georgia gubernatorial run on Friday, but made it clear she would never “concede” the race to the actual winner, Republican Brian Kemp.

In keeping with the Democrat Party’s 25-year campaign to declare every Republican win to be somehow illegitimate, Abrams blamed her loss not on the fact that she received more than 50,000 fewer votes than her opponent, but on “voter suppression”, which is her way of saying all Republicans are racists and she only lost because of their racism, or something. Because of course she did.

No, Texas is not turning blue anytime soon. – We’ve seen a lot of elections “experts”, i.e., liberals in the fake news media, offering sage analyses of the Texas election results and coming up with the conclusion that the state of Texas is going to turn blue as soon as 2020.

Let me assure you, as a 7th generation Texan, that ain’t gonna happen.

Yes, the Democrat Party made gains in Texas in the 2018 elections. The Dems flipped two congressional seats, 2 state senate seats and a dozen seats in the state’s house of representatives. It’s a BLUE WAAAAAAAVE, right?  Um, no, not really.

What those results mean is that the Texas congressional delegation is now 23 Rs and 13 Ds. The Rs will hold a 19-12 edge in the state senate, and 83 of the 150 seats in the state house.

Oh, and here’s the other thing all these “experts” fail to mention:  The Republicans won every statewide election held this year. Every one of them, from the governor’s office all the way down to the land office race. Yes, the winning margins were closer than they have been in the past 5 election cycles, but let’s think about why that happened.

I can explain the majority of it in two words:  Beto O’Rourke. His race against Ted Cruz was the first race on everyone’s ballot this year. O’Rourke, thanks to a flood of money from Hollywood and New York, was able to pour about $80 million into that race, outspending Cruz by a factor of about 3 to 1. Just above the senate race on the ballot was the option to vote straight Republican or straight Democrat tickets.

O’Rourke ran a mostly-positive campaign that excited a lot of voters in Texas. And thousands of those voters, perhaps hundreds of thousands of them, who might have otherwise voted for many Republicans, expressed their excitement for Irish Bob O’Rourke and saved a bunch of time by simply marking the box for the straight Democrat ticket.

There is simply no question that the ability to pour such a gargantuan amount of money into a single statewide race heavily influenced every race down the ballot. If you think the Republicans in Texas are going to get caught flat-footed in the money race again in 2020 or subsequent election cycles, you are going to be highly disappointed when those years come around.

I first started working Texas politics in 1996, two years after George W. Bush had become governor by defeating Ann Richards. At that time, all the “wise people” in Austin, all the analysts and lobbyists and reporters, assured me that this Republican thing was just a temporary aberration and that the Democrats would sweep back into power in the 1998 elections.  Instead, the Rs won every statewide office and took control of the state’s house of representatives and senate.

After that election, all these “wise people” kept assuring me that by 2002 or 2004, the state’s growing community of Hispanic voters would sweep the Democrats back into power. Here it is 2018, and it’s now a quarter of a century since any Dem won a statewide election in Texas.  Why?  Because the Republicans keep getting a higher and higher percentage of Hispanic votes as more and more Hispanics move up into the middle and upper classes of society. Republican candidates in this year’s election also saw a significant gain in their percentage of black voters.

Now, there is no doubt Texas Republicans have some work to do, especially with suburban and rural women, where they saw significant erosion of support in this year’s voting. Some of that is the Beto effect, but you sure can’t blame it all on that.

That is where the narrowing of the GOP majorities in both houses of the legislature could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, because those smaller margins are likely to force Republican leaders to focus on the state’s economic and budget matters in the upcoming legislative session, and leave all the social issues that tend to turn off those women voters on the sidelines.

In any event, any Democrat thinking they can just chalk up Texas’s mass of electoral votes to their party’s candidate for the presidency in 2020 or even in 2024 is just whistling past the graveyard.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Pro Tips for Election Night Results-Watching

The Evening Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

[I will be live-blogging the mid-term election results here starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time Tuesday.  Please join me in the comments section for tons of fun as the results either make me look like the smartest guy on the planet or a damn fool.  Could go either way.]

Some pro tips for Election Night Results-Watching:

  • We may have a very good idea on how the House balance of power will end up fairly early in the evening. – A large number of the “tossup” seats in this election are in closely-divided districts in Florida, Virginia, New York and Pennsylvania, all in the Eastern time zone.  So, by 8 p.m. Central Time, we should have a pretty good idea of what the trend in those districts is, or if there is no trend at all.
  • There aren’t many other key House districts in the Central or Mountain time zones. – Once you get out of the states on the Eastern Seaboard, you only have a handful of key House districts until you get to California, where the Democrats are heavily contesting 10 remaining GOP-held seats.  If the Ds haven’t clinched the majority in the House by the time polls close in California, it’s going to be a long night.  If they have, the state loses its importance in the grand scheme of things, though it will still be interesting to see if Rs like Dana Rohrabacher can hang in there for one more term in office.
  • If the House goes early, the Senate probably will, too. – Here is where Florida is such a key.  The Republicans are going to end up at least 60,000 votes ahead of 2016 in the early voting results.  Trump won Florida by 117,000 votes in 2016, so if you add 60,000 to that, you get a fairly high hill for incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson to climb in his run for re-election against sitting GOP Governor Rick Scott.  If we see Scott losing this race by, say, 5% or more when the early returns come in, then that will likely mean it’s going to be along night for the GOP.  If we see Scott keeping it closer than that in the early returns, that means good news for Republicans is probably going to be coming in all night long.
  • Georgia’s governor’s race is also key. – This race shouldn’t be as close as the polls claim it is.  If the early returns show a neck-and-neck race here, then you can probably expect a pretty late night overall.
  • Don’t be surprised if Irish Bob O’Rourke leads Ted Cruz early in Texas. – The major metro areas in Texas lean Democrat as a whole, and their returns always come in earlier than the rural counties.  Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by ~160,000 votes when the early voting was reported at 7:00 by the Secretary of State’s office.  But then the rural counties started to come in and that more than reversed.  In total, rural Texas went for Trump by more than 1 million votes in 2016.  Expect to see a similar dynamic in this race.
  • Ignore leaked “exit polls.” – At some point around mid-day, one more more major media outlets will report on “leaked” exit poll information showing Democrats well ahead and moving towards their long-coveted “blue wave.”  Ignore those reports.  First of all, these “exit polls” are commissioned by those same damn media outlets, and the “leaks” are designed to depress GOP turnout on Election Day.  They’ve been playing this despicable game since 2000.  The good news is, it never works.
  • It’s Ok to watch CNN. – Aside from the obvious benefits of seeing all the long faces over there if the Republicans have a good night, John King was actually much better and more even-handed at reporting on results and trends than anyone else on Election Night 2016.  Fox News was actually the worst place to be on Election Night 2016, as they focused far more on giving everyone with a contributor contract time to weigh in on stuff they know nothing about than on actually reporting on election results.  Thus, Fox News was among the last to recognize the reality that Trump was actually about to win.
  • Whenever Juan Williams or Shep Smith appear on your TV screen, change channels. – Trust me, it’s better for your blood pressure.
  • Pace yourself on your favorite beverage. – Don’t hit the juice too hard early, because it could be a long night, just like 2016.  And don’t break out the champagne too early like all the Democrats did two years ago – it’ll go flat in just a few hours, and that’s never good.

Personally, I’ll be drinking Tito’s and Topo Chico with a twist of lime and a couple of cubes of sugared ginger root – my own personal Texas Mule recipe.  If Florida goes bad early, that’ll probably start showing up in my updates around 8:30 Central Time.

Be careful out there.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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To Donald Trump, it’s all About America

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Well, of course she did. – Bad comic Amy Schumer – niece of Chuck Schumer – held a press conference in which she announced all the Democrat candidates who she, in her infinite wisdom, wants everyone else to vote for.  Almost as an afterthought, she also announced she was pregnant.  We all have our priorities in life, and these are hers.

America’s Biggest Mistake suddenly reappears on the campaign trail, and boy is it rich. – Barack Hussein Obama – who had mysteriously disappeared from the campaign trail after making a big announcement promising to campaign all over the country back in early September – suddenly materialized before a mediocre audience out in Las Vegas.  There, in a 38-minute TelePrompter speech in which he referred to his own self 92 times, he also had this to say:

No word if he then went on to say “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. If you like your plan, you can keep your plan. Those manufacturing jobs are never coming back. I didn’t know anything about Uranium One.  I found out about Hillary’s private server when everyone else did. Same thing with all that gun-running Eric Holder was doing down in Mexico. You can’t just wave a magic wand and get 3 percent growth…”, but it seems pretty likely.

Why you should be following @GDBlackmon on Twitter, part 5,351 – 

Is that mean-spirited?  Yeah, I guess.  But we put up with waaaayyyyy too much BS in this society, and it’s time to start walking some of it back.

And speaking of walking things back… – The newsfakers at NBCNews continued the steady walking-back of their year-long “Blue Wave!!!!!” fantasy with a Monday article headlined “Republicans Out-pacing Democrats in Early Voting in Key States, NBC News Finds.”  Wow, who knew?

The piece looks at early voting numbers from Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Montana, Indiana and Georgia.  In every state but Nevada, Republican-affiliated voters lead in the preliminary mail-in and early in-person voting totals.  Republicans usually lead in mail-in ballots in most states, but do not normally lead in early in-person voting in some of the states studied.

In this particular analysis, the most crucial states to keep watching are Nevada, where Republican Dean Heller is really the lone GOP incumbent senator in trouble this time around, and in Florida, Montana and Indiana, where it is somewhat unusual for Republicans to be leading in these early totals.  If these leads continue, the Democrat incumbents in those states are in a ton of trouble given that Republicans will dominate the turnout on Election Day itself.

Man, nobody could have seen that one coming…oh, wait…

Monday was another bad day for our favorite Creepy Porn Lawyer. – A judge in California has ordered the Creepy Porn Lawyer to pay $4.85 million that he has owed his law partners for several years while living an extravagant lifestyle.  Other reports indicate that CPL was recently evicted from his Los Angeles law offices in relation to the dispute.  The Daily Beast also reported last week that CPL owes $1.2 million in back taxes to the federal government.  Hey, how come CPL doesn’t have his own GoFundMe account?  Surely all those liberal suckers who gave millions to Stormy Daniels and Christine Ford would pony up for their Creepy Porn hero too?

Oh, hey, and President Donald Trump (I never tire of typing those three blessed words) was in Houston last night! – Boy, was it epic.  You had 19,000 people sitting or standing inside the Toyota Center, and another 19,000 or so watching the event on huge video screens that had been set up outside the arena.  Below is a shot of a portion of the huge crowd that had gathered on the Downtown Houston streets by mid-afternoon:

The President was there stumping on behalf of the guy he used to call “Lyin’ Ted Cruz.”  Before he even left Washington D.C. Monday afternoon, Mr. Trump set the White House fake press corps into a frenzied set of the vapors, telling them as he boarded Marine One that  “He’s not Lyin’ Ted anymore. He’s Beautiful Ted. I call him Texas Ted.”  Much tsk-tsking and tut-tutting immediately materialized on the Twitter accounts of fake journalists all over Washington and New York.

The newsfakers at CNN were further scandalized when the President embraced the fact that he is an American nationalist, saying:

“A globalist is a person that wants the globe to do well, frankly not caring about the country so much. You know, we can’t have that,” Trump said, prompting boos from the crowd.  “You know what I am, I’m a nationalist,” he added, as the crowd erupted in “USA! USA!” chants. “Use that word.”

Millions of Americans in Texas and all over the rest of Flyover Country heard that and said, “Hey, #MeToo!” But of course, the leftwingers in the Democrat Party and our fake news media have spent the last 25 years turning the term “nationalist” into a political cussword, so they’re all in a fury about it this morning.

The Houston Chronicle noted that “Trump acknowledged that he and Cruz ‘had our little difficulties’ and ‘it got nasty’ during the 2016 Republican presidential primary, when Trump called Cruz ‘Lyin’ Ted.’ But he commended Cruz for doing a ‘beautiful job staring down an angry left-wing mob’ during the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh,” all of which is absolutely true, but we can be sure that a bunch of leftist “fact-checkers” in the Texas and national news media will determine it isn’t.  Because that’s what our fake news media does to this President.

In the end, having both America’s Biggest Mistake and President Donald Trump book-ending the political day served as a perfect object lesson about why our country is so blessed to have Trump as Obama’s successor: While Obama’s speech was filled with “I” and “me” and carefully read off of a TelePrompter, Trump’s speech was all about “we”, and largely extemporaneous.

For Obama, everything was always all about him. For Trump, it’s all about America.

What else do we really need to know?

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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