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Beto O’Rourke Must Turn on the Media that Invented Him

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Some free advice for Beto O’Rourke. – I suppose that I should preface this long piece by reminding readers that I have no love for Irish Bob O’Rourke. In fact, what I really hold for him more than anything else is contempt. The substance-devoid empty suit from El Paso finds himself today in a predicament of his own making, a situation in which his once-promising presidential campaign is mired in weak also-ran status in a crowded field that is occupied by more capable and more-clever candidates.

Irish Bob’s situation is compounded by the reality that the elite, northeastern fake news media establishment that literally put the presidential bug in his ear by fawning all over him for the last six months of 2018 has now turned on him because he waited too long to bend the knee and consummate its courtship of him. Since he finally announced his candidacy in March – the fickle nature of the fake media demanded he do so in December, January at the outside – he has been treated as a stepchild, hit by a series of negative stories and given the back of the hand by elitist media outlets angry that he hasn’t shown up on their doorsteps with a bouquet of roses in-hand and tickets to that night’s Knicks game for them.

A friend pointed me to a really good May 15 piece posted by Vanity Fair titled “How the Media Fell Out of Love with Beto O’Rourke,” which interestingly sounds like a title we would use here at the Campaign Update. We’ve certainly come close to it in the past, and written on the same basic theme, albeit in a more sarcastic way.

The Vanity Fair piece is written from an obviously more friendly perspective towards O’Rourke, but chronicles the same basic story we’ve chronicled here. It is very long, but a really good read and I encourage everyone to read it in full.

Here are some outtakes I want to emphasize this morning:

Since announcing his campaign for president in mid-March, just two months ago, O’Rourke has gone from the media darling who almost beat Ted Cruz in Texas to the designated punching bag of the pundit class. Harry Siegel of the Daily Beast called Beto a “manchild” on Twitter, while sharing a lacerating piece from the columnist Margaret Carlson, who wrote about “her unscientific poll asking every woman I see” and the conclusion that O’Rourke, the married father of three who enjoys making Sunday morning pancakes for his family, reminds them of “the worst boyfriend they ever had.”

Oof.

The press commentary swirling around O’Rourke has been like this for months—mockery first, re-tweets second, sober analysis third.

“A presidential campaign is several universes away from a statewide campaign,” said Republican strategist Kevin Madden, a former adviser on both of Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns. “It’s 10 times harder. The scrutiny is just so much greater. Your worst day on Capitol Hill or in the statehouse or on a Senate campaign is three times worse every day on a presidential campaign…You can’t escape the media. You have to have a plan to deal with them.”

O’Rourke is trying to repair the damage this week, stopping by New York greenrooms that’s he’s so far been shunning, making appearances on The Rachel Maddow Show and The View. And as he did during his Senate run, he’s also booked an appearance at a CNN town hall, a format that’s proven to be a ratings and fund-raising bonanza for candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg.

So, those capture the basic theme, which is: 1) The media fell in love with “Beto” last year and made him as a senatorial candidate; 2) Beto tried to mostly ignore them early in his presidential campaign, taking it right to the grassroots instead; 3) The fickle media elitists turned on him in a typically vicious manner; and 4) Beto is now dutifully making the rounds on bended knee.

But it’s probably all too late, if the goal is to have the media elitists go back to loving their former flame. The damage has been done, and it’s hard to rekindle the kind of media love Irish Bob received in 2018. Besides, in 2018 he was running against one of the most media-hated Republican in the nation; now, he’s running against a pack of beloved fellow Democrats. Making the rounds and passing out Knicks tickets probably isn’t gonna undo this damage.

To me, the key for a possible O’Rourke comeback lies in one passage a little over halfway through the piece:

“I guess I still haven’t heard the Ted Kennedy answer from him,” said former South Carolina legislator Boyd Brown, an early O’Rourke supporter in the primary state. Brown was invoking Kennedy’s devastating failure to answer CBS anchor Roger Mudd’s question “Why do you want to be president?” days before his 1980 campaign launch. Still, Brown, who is 32, told me that O’Rourke “personifies” and “embodies” the “views of my generation,” pointing to his climate-change plan as the most ambitious of any Democrat running. But he also bristled at the national press for harping on O’Rourke’s personality and missteps. “Who the hell wants to go on TV and get talked over and lectured by a bunch of D.C. and New York types? I’m old enough to remember when friends of mine in the journalism profession would go out of their way not to show bias. Now it feels like they have cheapened the overall profession because they want a lot of likes and re-tweets on Twitter. Reporters want to be woke on Twitter and get their 15 minutes of fame. It’s devalued journalism.”

You hear that, Irish Bob? Your natural base voters don’t really have any more use for the Margaret Carlsons of the world than I do. They have different reasons for that dislike, but it is there and it is simmering just below the surface, waiting for you or some other candidate in the race to tap into it.

Here’s the thing: O’Rourke is sitting there at 3-5% in the polls, mired in the middle of a field crowded with politicians who are just as craven and ambitious as he is. It is in that millieu that he must find a way to differentiate himself, to stand out in that crowd.

Is he going to get that done by dutifully doing the same lame appearances on all the daytime and late night talk shows and CNN townhalls that everyone else is doing? Is he going to do that by announcing a “Climate Change” plan that wastes one or two trillion dollars more than these 7 rivals, but one or two trillion less than those other 10 to 12 rivals?

The answer is obvious. That’s just spinning your skateboard wheels, waving your arms and failing.

But ask yourself this: Which Democrat candidate right now is loudly criticizing any media outlet other than the standard Democrat bogeyman, Fox News?

There’s your opportunity to stand out. Get out there and talk about how you’re a Texan from Flyover Country, from the heart of our nation, fighting against the elite northeastern media. Talk about how these snarky fake journalists are devaluing their profession in their never-ending grasp for more re-tweets and followers. Talk about how you are suddenly the outsider in this race, fighting for the interests of the little guy against the elite media and your party’s establishment, which want to tilt the playing field in favor of Party regulars like Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, elitists favoring fellow elitists.

In other words, Irish Bob, if you really want to stand out among this crowd of pandering, groveling, hack politicians, you need to start sounding a lot like…wait for it…Donald J. Trump, circa 2015.

Mr. Brown has given you some really sound advice in that Vanity Fair piece, and Mr. Trump has already shown you the way. It may or may not work, but it’s really the only chance you have remaining at this point.

Are you smart enough to take that chance?

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Meet the New Beto, Same as the Old Beto

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Today’s Public Service Announcement! – The “World’s Fastest Train” has been unveiled in Japan, y’all! Guess what? It is designed to sail along at speeds up to … wait for it… 224 miles per hour! Which is, lessee here…. almost half as fast as the average airliner. Almost. Oh, and it won’t be operational until the year 2030, which is coincidentally the year before Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tells us we’re all going to burn up and die if we don’t get rid of air travel and replace it millions of miles of rail lines.

Dear Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other fans of her appeal to abject nitwits, the Green New Deal: This dog don’t hunt. Just thought I’d remind you. Plus, it’s stupid-looking. Seriously, it looks like something out of a 1960s-era cartoon:

Dubbed the Alfa-X, it is capable of reaching speeds of up to 224 mph and consists of ten carriages. Its sleek silver design is matched by its incredible long and pointed nose which stretches for 72 feet n front of it (pictured)

 

Don’t look now, but Irish Bob O’Rourke is about to “reintroduce” himself again. – But the crucial question is, will the mental teenagers in our fake news media fall in love with their former heartthrob one more time?

Image may contain: 1 person, smiling, text

The smart money says ‘no’ – it’s really hard to recreate the magic of that first high school crush. Once the bad breakup occurs, there is rarely any going back.

After Irish Bob let it be known late last week that he plans to “launch” his flagging presidential campaign one more time, I’ve been watching to see which U.S. national publication would be the first to do yet another fawning “profile” of him, complete with nasty comments about Ted Cruz, descriptions of El Paso and/or West Texas as “dusty”, misrepresentations about the origins of the fake nickname he gave to himself, and the required comparisons to some Kennedy or another. Would it be Vanity Fair one more time? Might Rolling Stone jump in again? How about the New York Times or the Washington Post? They’ve all done it before – would they find the waters to be still warm and give their ex-boyfriend another date to the local Pizza Hut?

Uh, no. As it turns out, the O’Rourke campaign apparently was unable to even catch coffee at Starbucks with any of its fake journalist exes, having to resort instead to grabbing a sandwich at Wichy Wich with some reporter from the UK Guardian. And what a soggy sandwich it turns out to be, which is only fitting for such a horrifically-run campaign.

Oh, the piece has the required “dusty” reference contained in literally every profile ever done about Irish Bob, when it describes El Paso as “the dusty, sunbaked border town in Texas where he was born”. The writer even goes so far as to outright lie about the fake nickname, calling O’Rourke “the tall white guy with the funny first name” in the piece’s opening paragraph. My goodness, the piece even makes the jump to include a quote from one of Irish Bob’s teenage flames (no doubt referred to him by the O’Rourke campaign), someone named Maggie Asfahani, who makes her living as – guess what? – a writer!  Because of course she does.

As if it is helpful, Asfahani says she is responsible for the famous photo of Irish Bob wearing a dress in a promo for his punk band, Foss: “I want to put on the record, that is my dress he’s wearing,” she said.

Oh.

Image result for beto in a dress

No doubt the O’Rourke campaign had longed for the standard puff piece that their candidate has become used to receiving from the national U.S. media and Texas-based outlets like the Texas Tribune and Houston Chronicle, but this one does not fit the U.S. media’s cut-n-paste mold. There is no comparison to anyone named Kennedy, and the Guardian’s piece is otherwise a fairly objective recital of O’Rourke’s political history and inconsistencies.

Not the launch – or re-launch – our hero was seeking.

Like everything else Irish Bob has done since losing his Texas senate race against Senator Cruz last November, this “re-introduction” comes too late, and displays nothing more prominently than a singular lack of situational awareness on this part.

In politics, it is crucial for a candidate to strike while the iron is hot, an aspect of the game that Donald Trump understands better than any national figure since Bill Clinton. Last November, the media’s best boyfriend could have made himself into an instant front-runner in the Democrat nomination race by announcing his candidacy the day after his loss.

Yes, doing that would have been ‘too soon’ and ‘presumptuous’ according to the conventional wisdom. But O’Rourke’s image at that time was made by being presumptuous and going against the conventional grain. By dawdling around and waiting to announce his campaign in March, he traded that image for one of being indecisive and unreliable, which is pretty much his life’s history.

And that’s it – he can’t get that back. The opportunity to stand out in the race is now gone – the field is too crowded and the fickle teen-mentality media has moved on to other crushes. If you want a comparison to 2016 and the crowded GOP field that sought the nomination, Irish Bob is this cycle’s Scott Walker, the “hot” candidate who everyone thought at one point would be that year’s BIG DEAL, but never was.

Walker left the 2016 race before it ever actually even got to 2016, ending his dead-broke candidacy in September of 2015, after just two months of debates in which he had utterly failed to make a good impression. Irish Bob is probably too self-absorbed and clueless to make a similarly-fast exit from the stage, but he might as well.

He’s done.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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How March 15, 2019 Turned Out to be the Ides of Beto

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Just don’t call it Jeb!II, ‘cuz that looks funny. – Just days after his 2016 campaign’s Super PAC was hit with a huge fine for taking more than $1.3 million in illegal contributions from Chinese interests, Jeb! Bush was on CNN (because of course he was on CNN) saying that someone (hint, hint) ought to challenge President Donald Trump for the GOP nomination in 2020.

Gosh, who would that be, Jeb!? Why, what Republican out there would have the ability to raise something like, oh, I don’t know, $150 million or so from U.S. and Chinese interests to fritter away in a hopeless effort to challenge a hugely-successful sitting President from his own party?

What prominent Republican is so filled with hubris and lacking in anything substantive to do with the rest of his life that he would be willing to take on the mantle of the rapidly-dying #NeverTrump nitwit faction of the GOP in such a Quixotic quest? Even better, what prominent Republican has a last name that every American voter immediately recognizes thanks to a family legacy of ex-Presidents and his having tossed away $150 million in American and Chinese currency during the 2016 nominating battle?

Hey, I know who that guy is – he’s Jeb! And the great thing is, Jeb! could even promise to name Paul Ryan as his running mate, since Ryan’s got nothing better to do right now, either. That worked out so well for Mitt Romney in 2012, after all. Maybe even call him Paul!, because that worked out so well for Jeb!, didn’t it?

“Jeb!Paul!2020!” The bumper stickers practically name themselves!

Ok, that’s too many exclamation points – time to move on.

Dear Irish Bob: Your window of opportunity was January 1. You missed it. – Back in November, I told you all that I fully expected Robert Francis O’Rourke to be the Democrats’ 2020 nominee for the presidency.  Then, in early February, I warned you that the lanky, fidgety Texan had better fish or cut bait pretty quick, because his window of opportunity was closing.

Here’s an excerpt from that piece:

A month ago I’d have made Irish Bob the odds-on favorite to be the 2020 Democrat nominee because he is the absolutely perfect Democrat candidate:  Completely unqualified; no accomplishments in the private sector of our economy of any note; no real accomplishments in government, either, for that matter; willing to say literally anything to attract votes from depraved and demented Democrat base voters; and he looks good on television. Hell, he even has his fake nickname that leads at least half of all Democrat voters to still think he is Hispanic or something, allowing him to tick off that “Minority” box even though he isn’t one, just like Fauxcahontas has made a habit of doing throughout her adult life in order to get ahead.

Today, I’m telling you that my February piece was overly-optimistic, and our hero’s window of opportunity most likely closed way back in January, maybe even December, before any of the other candidates got into the race.

There was plenty of reason in late November to believe O’Rourke could become the Democrat nominee. Yeah, he’d just lost his senate race to Ted Cruz, but he had made it pretty close thanks to a 3-to-1 spending advantage, and today’s Democrats are all about the moral victory, just fascinated with political losers. He was clearly the favorite of all the young girls in the news media and many of the young men as well, all of whom longed to get the plum assignment of covering his campaign.

He truly had everything going for him, all the political momentum in the world, and then…he decided to take a few months off. He said he had to go “find myself”, and spent weeks wandering around who knows where, live-streaming dental visits, doing interviews with an ever-willing Oprah and “60 Minutes” crew and apparently raising a clinically depressed black Labrador retriever.

December came and went. January came and went. February came and went and then half of March, until there were 11 Democrat candidates in the race, but still no precious Beto for all the local TV news anchors to swoon over. Simply put, by the time Irish Bob finally got around to formally announcing he was going to run, a huge portion of his potential support base that was firmly behind him in late 2018 had already moved on.

Even more devastating for the de facto favored candidate of the news media, many of his potential suitors had grown tired of being stood up for the date, and had even grown bitter. Even worse than that, some of them had even figured out the essence of his schtick, as evidenced by the headline of the piece published yesterday by the very liberal New Republic: “The Profound Emptiness of Beto O’Rourke.”  Ouch.

The leftwing media pushback wasn’t limited to the New Republic – far from it. The lunatics who run Slate beat them to the punch by two full days with an anti-Beto diatribe headlined “Beto 2020 Has No Reason to Exist.” Yikes.

By Friday, the growing awareness in the fake news media of Irish Bob’s essential emptiness as a human being and similarly-growing awareness by the Social Justice Warriors among the Democrat voter base that this guy with the Hispanic-sounding nickname is really just another pasty-faced white guy had the hacks at Politico using the dreaded “B” word:  “Not One Woman Got That Kind of Coverage: Beto Backlash Begins.” Hooboy.

Indeed, the backlash momentum had become so severe by week’s end that not even the news-fakers at CNN could resist getting in on the act:

 

Other leftist media organizations had become so bitter by Irish Bob’s months of dithering that they even assigned reporters to do some actual, real reporting on his dark personal background. That led to this report from Reuters making its way into publication on Friday:

Backstory: How Reuters uncovered Beto O’Rourke’s teenage hacking days – Reuters reporter Joseph Menn exclusively revealed on Friday that Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke belonged to one of the best-known groups of computer hackers as a teenager.

Oh, my.

This was not how it was all supposed to go for our precious Beto, not how it was supposed to go at all.

The fact that Friday was March 15, aka the Ides of March, had many speculating that Gestapo Chief, er, “Special Counsel” Robert Mueller would use the Caesarian symbolism of that date to issue his final report. Well, the long knives of the American Left were certainly out on Friday, but they weren’t coming for President Trump, they were coming for Irish Bob.

March 15, 2019 should forever be remembered as the Ides of Beto, the day it became obvious that the guy who couldn’t win Texas despite an enormous money edge and the entire national news media serving as his campaign’s propaganda operation won’t be able to compete on a national stage, either.

It turns out that window closed way back in January.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

 

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Speaking of Political Losers, Heeeeeere’s Beto!

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is an actress. – Everyone should watch this video. Trust me, just watch it. It’ll be the best 23 minutes you invest this week. I’m going to keep this pinned at the top of each piece I post for the next few days in order to maximize its – and her – exposure.

And speaking of political losers. – Sometimes, events just follow the Campaign Update around.  Our focus yesterday morning was on the Democrats’ Ongoing Fascination With Political Losers, and – viola! – this morning, Irish Bob “Beto” O’Rourke is formally announcing his candidacy.

All the girls – and most of the guys – who pose as fake journalists in our fake news media are swooning and cooing sweet nothings they hope will eventually meet their precious Beto’s ears. Fake news hacks from El Paso to Austin to New York City to Washington D.C. are all lining up at the door to their fake editors’ offices, er, cubicles, vying for the glorious assignment of following the jumpy, sweaty, skate-boarding, 46 year-old around the country in the hopes that he will give them a passing glance, maybe one of his crooked smiles, or even – gasp! – repeat their name back to them during an evasive answer to one of their softball questions.

Oh, the glory! What more could a girl – or guy – possibly want amid a miserable life spent faking the news for a living?

The Texas Tribune, an Austin-based digital publication that acted as a pro bono PR firm for Irish Bob’s failed senate campaign last year, led with this paragraph in its story on this morning’s announcement:

“After months of intense speculation, Beto O’Rourke is entering the presidential race Thursday, marking an extraordinary rise from little-known El Paso congressman a few years ago to potentially formidable White House contender.”

Ah, so it’s been an “extraordinary rise”, has it, this progression from little-known congressman to senate race loser to presidential candidate currently pulling 6% in the Democrat preference polls? I suppose we should feel lucky the writer resisted the impulse to use the word “meteoric” instead.

To be fair, Irish Bob has been truly extraordinary at two things thus far:

  • He raised an extraordinary amount of out-of-state money in his senate race against Ted Cruz, ultimately out-spending Cruz by a 3-to-1 margin in a losing effort; and
  • He has attracted an extraordinary amount of free media from the fawning press, possibly more than any politician in U.S. history not named Obama or Clinton.

But maybe even more impressive is how many fake media outlets have chosen to publish pretty much the exact same “profile” of Irish Bob. Hell, Vanity Fair just put another one out there yesterday, complete with a photo spread by Annie Lebovitz.

Every profile of Irish Bob published over the past year reads like the breathless prose of a lovesick college coed, and they’re all structured as if torn from a page of a paint-by-the-numbers book:

  • Beto is “Kennedy-esque. Indeed, if that word does not appear in the story, it is not an official profile;
  • His hometown of El Paso, population of 683,577, is described as “small”, “backwater”, “isolated”, or my favorite, “dusty;”
  • He sweats a lot, and it shows. Swooning fake reporters spend a ton of time admiring Beto’s perspiration;
  • He rides a skateboard;
  • Hey, didja know he used to be in a punk rock band?;
  • The perpetually-jumpy politician with more tics than a stray dog has “nervous energy.” Oh;
  • His eyes are “piercing,” because hey, how else do you describe the eyes of someone who is “Kennedy-esque?” Just be glad they didn’t say “dreamy,” because that’s what they’re all really thinking.

Pablum for the masses, all in an effort to promote the candidacy of a guy whose main accomplishment in life – outside of having an admittedly-lovely family – is having raised $75 million in a senate race that he lost.

The conventional wisdom out there today seems to be that O’Rourke is getting into the race in an effort to become Joe Biden’s running mate in 2020. While I think that vastly underestimates Irish Bob’s massive ego, wouldn’t that outcome be wonderful?

Think about it: How would the rapidly-growing social justice warrior wing of the Democrat support base react if its 2020 convention were to nominate a ticket consisting of two of the most pasty-white men ever born in America outside of Wisconsin? It would be glorious.

So Irish Bob is officially in, and the Democrat fascination with political losers continues. I would say let the fawning fake news media slobbering over “Beto” begin, but as Vanity Fair and the Texas Tribune and many others demonstrate this morning, it began long ago.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Mueller Bites Into Another Ham Sandwich

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Robert Mueller has a passion for ham. – The Special Counsel’s office nabbed itself another ham sandwich in the dark of night, arresting former Trump adviser (prior to the 2016 election campaign) Roger Stone with CNN’s cameras conveniently present for the festivities. Funny how that works, huh?

The 66 year-old Stone, who is one of the most recognizable people in America at this point and not any sort of flight risk at all, was arrested at his home as FBI agents pounded on his door shouting “FBI! Open the door!” as they would if they were playing Elliot Ness in a Hollywood-produced film. Stone, after opening the door, was naturally taken away in handcuffs.

The arrest of Stone on a variety of process crimes having nothing to do with any “collusion” with anyone from Russia comes after 20 months of a Mueller-led rectal exam into every facet of his life. The obviously-coordinated media event also conveniently comes in the wake of recent releases of transcripts of the congressional testimonies of a series of FBI/DOJ anti-Trump cabal participants like Lisa Page and James Baker which contained revelations of all sorts of violations of law and process committed as part of the efforts to get Trump during 2016 and 2017. You know, actual news that CNN couldn’t be bothered to report.

Timing is everything if you’re a Special Counsel.

Stone was charged with a series of terrible-sounding process crimes like “obstruction of justice” (as if this Mueller and his band of Clinton/Obama shills were engaged in any sort of pursuit of actual “justice”), “witness tampering” and “lying to congress”, all of which sound great when trumpeted by the news-fakers at CNN. But God help him if he ever screwed up on a tax return, because at the end of the day all these other charges will almost certainly fall away and that is what he’ll end up going to jail for.

Just another day in the pursuit of “justice” by the American Gestapo.

And now for something completely different…: Here’s Irish Bob O’Rourke in a Sheep Suit.  No, really, I’m not making this up…

Conservatives like Jim Hanson making fun of Irish Bob over this video are just whistling past the graveyard.  Democrat voters eat this kind of stuff up. In their minds, O’Rourke in a onesie just makes him cool and hip and they’re all out there on Amazon this morning trying to figure out if they can buy one for themselves. And that sheep mask will be all the rage at Millennial Halloween parties this October.

At the end of the day, the release of this little snip of video will get Irish Bob another 5 percent in the Democrat 2020 nomination horse race polls.

He’s a shoe-in, folks.  Just get used to it: Beto-In-A-Sheep-Suit 2020!!!!

Actually, Mitch, you’re wrong. – The news-fakers at The Hill report this morning that GOP senators “Read the Riot Act” to Vice President Mike Pence at a closed-door luncheon yesterday. Led by Mitch McConnell, this group of half a dozen or so establishment unreliables informed the Veep that government shutdowns are “bad strategy”, with McConnell reminding Pence of his “favorite country saying” which is “there is no education in the second kick of a mule.”

Whatever that means.

We hear this nonsense all the time from McConnell and the GOP Squish lobby in the Senate and House. But every time we hear it, it is instructive to review the last time the GOP got blamed for a partial fake shutdown of the government.

That took place in October, 2013, when Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Utah Sen. Mike Lee – two actual, real conservative Republicans – led filibusters of a horrible budget bill to force a shutdown that lasted from October 1 through October 17 before they finally relented and agreed to a compromise.

As we see happening today, Democrats and their coordinating agents in the fake news media reacted to that action by Cruz and Lee with glee, assuring the public that Republicans would pay dearly at the ballot box when the 2014 mid-term congressional elections came around.  Because, that is what D.C. Swamp logic told them would happen, right?  Right.

But what actually did happen in the 2014 mid-term elections?  Why, the GOP base turned out in droves, and Republicans swept to huge gains in both the House and Senate.  In fact, this was the election in which Republicans gained control of the Senate for the first time since 2006, the election that put Cocaine Mitch into the Majority Leader’s role he holds today.

One would think McConnell might actually remember such a red-letter day in his career.

I have been involved in and written about politics for almost 40 years now, and it never ceases to amaze me how so many Republicans are simply incapable of recognizing the single most important lesson the great Ronald Wilson Reagan taught them: Republicans will always be rewarded by voters when they stand on principle and keep their promises, and will always be punished by them when they fail to do so.

In this government shutdown, President Donald Trump is standing on principle and keeping his promose, and he will be rewarded by the voters for doing so in 2020 so long as he does not capitulate.  Republicans who stand with him will also be rewarded. Republicans who do not stand with him will be punished.

It really is that simple.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Swalwell 2020: Nuking Gun Owners For Peace

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Hey, who is Marianne Williamson? –  I honestly have no idea who this person is, but the newsfakers at Politico think it is news that a person named Marianne Williamson is running for the Democrat Party’s presidential nomination in 2020.  According to Politico, she is a “spiritualist” – whatever that means – who ran an independent campaign for a California congressional seat in 2014, and failed. That race was won by Ted Lieu, one of the most despicable Democrats in today’s congress, so maybe we should be wishing she had won instead. She certainly could not be any worse.

Williamson’s main claim to legitimacy in the political arena appears to be that she is a “pal of Oprah Winfrey.”  Given that the two high-profile Democrat candidates Oprah campaigned for this year – Florida’s Andrew Gillum and Georgia’s Stacey Abrams – have been declared loooooooooosers in their gubernatorial races over the last 24 hours, it’s hard to see what value the Oprah seal of approval really has any more.

But hey, in case you’re interested and have actually heard of Marianne Williamson, she’s running. There you go.

Speaking of despicable California congressmen, Eric Swalwell did this on Friday:

Yes, all you gun owners out there, Democrat Rep. Swalwell responded to a guy on Twitter who said that the government would have to kill him to take his guns away by assuring the guy that the government would indeed kill him, with nukes. This promise to nuke gun owners will no doubt play extremely well with the demented Democrat base voters and dramatically enhance Swalwell’s chances in his 2020 presidential run.

Can’t wait to get me one of them “Swalwell 2020:  Nuke ’em for Peace!” bumper stickers.

Holy crap. You seriously cannot make this stuff up.

And since we’re speaking of despicable Democrat politicians… – The aforementioned Oprah acolyte Stacey Abrams “halted” her Georgia gubernatorial run on Friday, but made it clear she would never “concede” the race to the actual winner, Republican Brian Kemp.

In keeping with the Democrat Party’s 25-year campaign to declare every Republican win to be somehow illegitimate, Abrams blamed her loss not on the fact that she received more than 50,000 fewer votes than her opponent, but on “voter suppression”, which is her way of saying all Republicans are racists and she only lost because of their racism, or something. Because of course she did.

No, Texas is not turning blue anytime soon. – We’ve seen a lot of elections “experts”, i.e., liberals in the fake news media, offering sage analyses of the Texas election results and coming up with the conclusion that the state of Texas is going to turn blue as soon as 2020.

Let me assure you, as a 7th generation Texan, that ain’t gonna happen.

Yes, the Democrat Party made gains in Texas in the 2018 elections. The Dems flipped two congressional seats, 2 state senate seats and a dozen seats in the state’s house of representatives. It’s a BLUE WAAAAAAAVE, right?  Um, no, not really.

What those results mean is that the Texas congressional delegation is now 23 Rs and 13 Ds. The Rs will hold a 19-12 edge in the state senate, and 83 of the 150 seats in the state house.

Oh, and here’s the other thing all these “experts” fail to mention:  The Republicans won every statewide election held this year. Every one of them, from the governor’s office all the way down to the land office race. Yes, the winning margins were closer than they have been in the past 5 election cycles, but let’s think about why that happened.

I can explain the majority of it in two words:  Beto O’Rourke. His race against Ted Cruz was the first race on everyone’s ballot this year. O’Rourke, thanks to a flood of money from Hollywood and New York, was able to pour about $80 million into that race, outspending Cruz by a factor of about 3 to 1. Just above the senate race on the ballot was the option to vote straight Republican or straight Democrat tickets.

O’Rourke ran a mostly-positive campaign that excited a lot of voters in Texas. And thousands of those voters, perhaps hundreds of thousands of them, who might have otherwise voted for many Republicans, expressed their excitement for Irish Bob O’Rourke and saved a bunch of time by simply marking the box for the straight Democrat ticket.

There is simply no question that the ability to pour such a gargantuan amount of money into a single statewide race heavily influenced every race down the ballot. If you think the Republicans in Texas are going to get caught flat-footed in the money race again in 2020 or subsequent election cycles, you are going to be highly disappointed when those years come around.

I first started working Texas politics in 1996, two years after George W. Bush had become governor by defeating Ann Richards. At that time, all the “wise people” in Austin, all the analysts and lobbyists and reporters, assured me that this Republican thing was just a temporary aberration and that the Democrats would sweep back into power in the 1998 elections.  Instead, the Rs won every statewide office and took control of the state’s house of representatives and senate.

After that election, all these “wise people” kept assuring me that by 2002 or 2004, the state’s growing community of Hispanic voters would sweep the Democrats back into power. Here it is 2018, and it’s now a quarter of a century since any Dem won a statewide election in Texas.  Why?  Because the Republicans keep getting a higher and higher percentage of Hispanic votes as more and more Hispanics move up into the middle and upper classes of society. Republican candidates in this year’s election also saw a significant gain in their percentage of black voters.

Now, there is no doubt Texas Republicans have some work to do, especially with suburban and rural women, where they saw significant erosion of support in this year’s voting. Some of that is the Beto effect, but you sure can’t blame it all on that.

That is where the narrowing of the GOP majorities in both houses of the legislature could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, because those smaller margins are likely to force Republican leaders to focus on the state’s economic and budget matters in the upcoming legislative session, and leave all the social issues that tend to turn off those women voters on the sidelines.

In any event, any Democrat thinking they can just chalk up Texas’s mass of electoral votes to their party’s candidate for the presidency in 2020 or even in 2024 is just whistling past the graveyard.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

American Political Revolutions Never Come Easy

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

This was never going to be easy. No political revolution ever progresses in a straight line. The American system – the Constitution itself – strongly agitates against rapid, radical political change of any kind.

In the first two years of the Barack Obama Administration, Americans saw rapid, radical political change and rebelled against it, turning the House over to Republicans in 2010 and then the Senate in 2014.  Americans again saw rapid, radical change over the past two years, as President Donald Trump reversed about 90% of the Obama era from the history books, and reacted last night by turning the House back to the Democrats.

This is not only nothing out of the ordinary, it is exactly how the nation’s founders consciously wanted the system to work. No one on either side has to like it, but it is important to recognize this reality of the American system and work to affect change within its confines.

So, just as happened in 2010, we end up with a split decision as the voters basically send a signal to Washington, D.C. to slow down. The country writ large isn’t necessarily opposed to the general direction things have been moving, but just wants to take more time to think about things before they happen.  This isn’t always a productive dynamic within the voting public, but we have no choice but to accept the verdict and move on.

In the House of Representatives, where I was hopeful that the Republicans would be able to retain a small majority, the Democrat gain will end up being around 30 net seats, perhaps a few more.  In the Senate, it’s most likely going to be 55 Republicans vs. 45 Democrats/Commies for the next two years, which is exactly where I had figured we’d end up since January.

The sad part of it all is that we will now get nothing out of the House of Representatives other than hearings and subpoenas and bombastic posturing by clowns like Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff for 24 solid months.  The good part of that is that those clowns and others will no doubt so disgust the voting public with their outrageous behavior that the voters will rebel again in 2020 and turn the House back over to the Republicans.  We can always hope, anyway.

The 55 seat majority in the Senate (which is what it will be whenever someone wakes up and declares McSally and Rosendale the winners in their races) means that Mitch McConnell no longer has to worry about getting Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski’s squish votes on every judicial nominee. And praise the lord, fellow squishes Jeff Flake and Bob Corker will no longer be around because they retired. What a relief that is.

Another blessing is that we Texans won’t have to hear any more nonsense about Beto O’Rourke.  Well, at least until January, that is, when he declares his candidacy for the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination, at which point he becomes the nation’s problem child. But everyone should be grateful to Ted Cruz for at least giving us a two month break.

Speaking of breaks, what is that new noise you are hearing from your radios and television sets this morning? Why, it’s the sound of non-political commercials! Isn’t that a joyful noise? Yes, I hate commercials as much as the next guy, but I have honestly missed them as the commercial breaks have been filled with nothing but negative political ads for the last two months.

In my home state of Texas, Republicans once again won every statewide election – as they have done in every cycle for the past quarter-century – but leaders of the Texas GOP will be waking up this morning with an uneasy feeling. While Governor Greg Abbott and a few other officeholders won their re-elections by the traditional double-digit margins, Cruz only prevailed against his well-funded opponent by 3% and several others, including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, saw their winning edges cut to 5%.

Yes, Irish Bob O’Rourke’s ability to pour $80 million of California/New York money into his race at the top of the ticket had a significant impact in races all the way up and down the ballot. But there is little question that Texas Repubs need to do some real soul-searching and find ways to broaden their appeal, particularly to middle-class suburban women and Hispanics if they want to retain their statewide dominance for the next decade or more.

Some other observations:

  • In conceding his very close loss to Ron DeSantis in Florida’s governor’s race, Democrat Andrew Gillum displayed a high degree of class and dignity that will help sustain him as a force in Florida poltics for years to come. We have not heard the last of this guy.
  • Unfortunately, Democrat Stacey Abrams, the Democrat candidate for Governor in Georgia, can’t summon those same qualities within herself and will keep her state in turmoil despite her obvious defeat.  Sad.
  • Back in Texas, Republican Dan Crenshaw, the Purple Heart veteran who was smeared by the sick people at Saturday Night Live over the weekend, won his race and will serve in the House of Representatives for the next two years.  There is still justice in this world, although you often have to look too hard to find it.
  • It is truly gratifying that Jon Tester, the Democrat slug who smeared Admiral Ronny Jackson, is dying this long, slow political death up there in Montana this morning. Couldn’t happen to a more rotten guy.
  • Nevada is officially a blue state now, and that is frightening. One wonders how long it will take the Democrats to completely screw up the state money printing machine that is Las Vegas. I give it a decade.
  • Scott Walker finally, at long last, lost an election in the blue state of Wisconsin, ending one of the most amazing political success stories of modern times. We haven’t heard the last of Walker.
  • Socialist dimwit Alexandria Ocasio Cortez won her race, and God bless the people of Queens for giving her to us to make fun of for the next two years.
  • Once again, CNN completely outclassed all other TV outlets with its election coverage.  John King is without question, far and away the best election night analyst in the known universe.  While Fox News was having a coffee chat session with a bunch of pundits, King and Wolf Blitzer were taking CNN’s viewers on constant whirlwind, county-by-county, sometimes precinct-by-precinct tours of myriad house, senate and gubernatorial races all over the country.  I won’t turn the channel over to CNN again before 2020, but when Election Night comes around that November, I’ll make an exception.

Finally, as I was wrapping this up, just a few moments ago, President Donald Trump (I never tire of typing those three glorious words) whipped this out to Twitter land:

If you thought the man was going to be intimidated by Speaker San Fran Nan or Bugeyes Adam Schiff, well, think again.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog [Update 9]

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

 

Ok, folks, here we go.

Unlike I did this afternoon, I am going to run the Updates down the page, to keep them from getting mixed up with all the adds.  I will note each update with a number in the title, i.e., I will add “Update 1” to the title with the first update, “Update 2” with the 2nd, etc., so you’ll be able to easily know when something new is there.  I’ll also send out a tweet for those who follow on Twitter.

PLEASE COMMENT – I will be following your comments and responding to as many as I can.

What to look for early:

Kentucky HD 6 and Georgia HD 6 – if the Rs are leading in both these GOP-held districts when the polls close at 7:00 ET, it’s cause for celebration.  If the Ds are ahead, not so much.  Unless you’re a Democrat, of course.

Trump won both of these districts easily in 2016, but the Democrats have spent tons of money trying to turn them both.

Also, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th district.  That’s another the Ds are hoping to turn tonight.

If the Ds are winning in all of these districts, then their probability of taking the House becomes near-certain.  If they are losing them all, then we’re going to have a late night, perhaps early morning before we know where things are going.

Indiana Senate – We will also be seeing first numbers in this race at 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT.  It’s a big one, though not needed for the GOP to retain control in the Senate.  CNN’s already reporting what is most likely the absentee ballots, and Republican Braun is up big over Democrat incumbent Donnelly, but the Rs always lead in the absentee votes in Indiana.

We’ll see.

Back shortly.

UPDATE 9:  DeSantis and Scott are now likely to both win in Florida.  What an amazing turnaround.

Braun has won Indiana.

Blackburn has won Tennessee.

Manchin has won WVA.

Kramer will win North Dakota.

John James is competing strongly in Michigan.

Cruz is 100k votes down but there are still over 100 rural counties who have not reported any votes at all to this point.  Karl Rove says Cruz will win in the end because of that.  I think Rove is right.

Right now, the Ds lead in 31 Red districts, the Rs lead in 5 Blue districts, and Fox News is now projecting the Democrats will gain a majority at the end of the evening.

We’ll see.  I’m not convinced yet.

UPDATE 8:  Barr has won KY 6.  Brat is barely behind know in VY 7.  If Brat can come back, that would be huge.  Still a big fat ZERO votes counted in GA 6.

Both Republicans are still holding on in Florida’s statewide races with 96% of the vote counted, and it appears that the votes still outstanding are pretty evenly split between R and D areas of the state.  Holy cow.

Cruz still a little behind in Texas, but most rural areas are still yet to report.

In Tennessee, the senate race is not close at this point, but will tighten as the night goes along.  But I think Blackburn wins that one.  [Fox just called it for Marsha!]

DeWine now in the lead in the Ohio governor’s race!

Braun still killing it in Indiana!

Kramer’s going to kill Heitcamp!

John James actually leading in the early Michigan returns.

This night is shaping up nicely, folks.  Keep the faith.

 

UPDATE 7:  I continue to be struck how much tonight is like 2016, especially in Florida statewide races.  Here we sit again with 93% of the votes counted, and the races are too close to call.  In 2016, everyone assumed all the outstanding votes were in the Miami/Broward area and Trump would lose.  But it turned out that there were still a bunch of votes sitting uncounted in GOP areas, and in a bunch of GOP-leaning precincts in South Florida.  Trump wins.

Cruz finally takes the lead in Texas, as the early vote returns start to finally come in from rural areas.  He will continue to build that lead as the night goes on.

Right now, I have to say that things are stacking up pretty nicely for the Rs.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

UPDATE 6:  Ok, things are starting to shape up now:

– Cruz is going to win by 8-10 points, based on what we are seeing early.  Cool.

– Both DeSantis and Scott have now moved into leads in their races.  But most of the outstanding votes are in Miami/Broward area.  You have to think the Ds will win, but we thought the same in the 2016 presidential race, too.

– Barr is building his lead in KY 6.

– Bratt is holding on in VA 7.  Most remaining votes are in R areas.

– Braun still killing it in Indiana.

– Still not a damn vote in in GA 6.  Unreal.

– Despicable Donna Shalala has won FL 27, a Democrat pickup.  Ugh.

 

UPDATE 5:  Barr now dead even in KY 6, Brat has fallen behind, though just by a couple thousand votes.  Still nothing on GA 6.  What the hell?

Oops, Barr took the lead with 77% of the vote counted just as I hit “enter” on this update.

DeSantis now within 1.2%, Scott within 1.4% in Florida, as the Panhandle votes finally start coming in.  Still lots of votes outstanding in Miami/Dade, though, too, though.  No way to call those races yet.

Again, it’s 2016 all over again down there.

Braun retaining a strong lead on Donnelly, but he needs it for when Indiana’s larger cities start reporting votes later tonight.

Irish Bob O’Rourke is up early over Ted Cruz, but it’s just Dallas turning in its early vote totals.  No worries, yet.

 

UPDATE 4:  Brat now moving out to a significant lead in VA7.  Barr has pulled within .3% in KY 6, still tons of votes to be counted.

The FL Gov and Sen races are tightening with every update.  Nelson had led by as much as 6% but now up by 2.  Gillum up by just 1.6.

Nothing in from GA 6 yet, unfortunately.

This feels an awful lot like 2016, doesn’t it?  Yes, it does.

 

UPDATE 3:  Brat now actually looking ok in early returns, which are most likely from urban areas.  He’ll be stronger in the suburbs and rural areas.

Braun running much stronger against Donnelly right now in rural areas than expected.  Well ahead of pace so far.

Can’t help noticing that CNN goes to their black anchor person every time there’s an update to be given on the Florida and Georgia governor’s races, both of which feature black candidates for the Ds.  So damn ridiculous.

The encouraging thing about Florida right now is that, even though the Rs trail in the Gov and Sen races, votes are already coming in from Miami/Dade County, which is unusual.

In KY 6, D McGrath is now well ahead of R Barr.  Ugh.  Still early, though, and don’t know where the votes are from yet.

 

UPDATE 2:  Ok, it’s time to say it:  CNN just kicks Fox’s ass on these election night events.  Fox just has a bunch of people sitting around pontificating while CNN is giving us every detail in every county in every state.  I normally never tune in to CNN, but on election nights, man, there’s really no choice here.

 

UPDATE 1:  Bill Nelson is underperforming his 2012 re-election in Florida so far, by about 5%.  That was a very close race, so that again bodes well for the GOP in the Sunshine State.  Most vote in so far are from heavily-Democrat Pinellas County.

 

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Live Blog: Election Day On Twitter – Data, Media Bias, Fun Stuff

The Campaign Update Election Day Preview Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

[Note:  I will be live-blogging election results on a new thread starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time.]

Check in here throughout the afternoon for further updates.

UPDATE @4:20 CT:

Ok, I’m going to close this one down right here.  Will start this evening’s open thread at 6:00 CT sharp – please join me and offer comments and information as you find it.  Thanks.

 

UPDATE @4:10 CT:

The folks at ZeroHedge.com have a really nice piece on when the polls in every state close and what to watch for when they do…

 

UPDATE @3:55 CT:

Not good news for Dean Heller out in Nevada…

UPDATE @3:10 CT:

Michael Newton with some more good early voting data…

 

UPDATE @2:20 CT: 

Nate Silver’s 538.com weighs in with its final “blue wave” prediction…

It’s fair to note that 538 also gave Hillary Clinton better than a 70% chance of winning the presidency on Election Day 2016.

538 also provides this interesting look-back at previous mid-term outcomes…

 

UPDATE @ 2:00 CT:

Final AZ early voting numbers are in, and they look good for McSally…

Michael Newton, who everyone would do well to follow on Twitter, makes a great point here…

Another tweeter everyone would to well to follow, au ng, has final Early Voting numbers from Florida, and again, they are very positive for the GOP…

 

UPDATE @12:30 CT:

Man, nobody would have ever guessed this would happen.  Oh, wait…

What?  Climate Change is not at the top of everyone’s mind today?  How can this be?

UPDATE @12:22 CT:  Trafalgar with some more final polls…

 

 

Noon, CT:  Let’s start with some key data points that have come across the @GDBlackmon Twitter feed today….

The Republican polling firm Trafalgar Group releases its final Florida poll this morning, and it is glorious if accurate:

Trafalgar was also the last firm to poll the Texas senate race…

Man, if this TargetSmart bunch has an accurate means of estimating early vote turnout, this is going to be an epic Red Wave.  TargetSmart, by the way, is a Democrat polling firm…

In Phoenix, Republicans are doing better in every city ward than they did in 2016. Bad news for nutjob Democrat Kyrsten Sinema…

This just happened in the world of media bias…

Ok, this is funny.  And sadly accurate…

 

That is all, for now.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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