Advertisements
Open post

How March 15, 2019 Turned Out to be the Ides of Beto

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Just don’t call it Jeb!II, ‘cuz that looks funny. – Just days after his 2016 campaign’s Super PAC was hit with a huge fine for taking more than $1.3 million in illegal contributions from Chinese interests, Jeb! Bush was on CNN (because of course he was on CNN) saying that someone (hint, hint) ought to challenge President Donald Trump for the GOP nomination in 2020.

Gosh, who would that be, Jeb!? Why, what Republican out there would have the ability to raise something like, oh, I don’t know, $150 million or so from U.S. and Chinese interests to fritter away in a hopeless effort to challenge a hugely-successful sitting President from his own party?

What prominent Republican is so filled with hubris and lacking in anything substantive to do with the rest of his life that he would be willing to take on the mantle of the rapidly-dying #NeverTrump nitwit faction of the GOP in such a Quixotic quest? Even better, what prominent Republican has a last name that every American voter immediately recognizes thanks to a family legacy of ex-Presidents and his having tossed away $150 million in American and Chinese currency during the 2016 nominating battle?

Hey, I know who that guy is – he’s Jeb! And the great thing is, Jeb! could even promise to name Paul Ryan as his running mate, since Ryan’s got nothing better to do right now, either. That worked out so well for Mitt Romney in 2012, after all. Maybe even call him Paul!, because that worked out so well for Jeb!, didn’t it?

“Jeb!Paul!2020!” The bumper stickers practically name themselves!

Ok, that’s too many exclamation points – time to move on.

Dear Irish Bob: Your window of opportunity was January 1. You missed it. – Back in November, I told you all that I fully expected Robert Francis O’Rourke to be the Democrats’ 2020 nominee for the presidency.  Then, in early February, I warned you that the lanky, fidgety Texan had better fish or cut bait pretty quick, because his window of opportunity was closing.

Here’s an excerpt from that piece:

A month ago I’d have made Irish Bob the odds-on favorite to be the 2020 Democrat nominee because he is the absolutely perfect Democrat candidate:  Completely unqualified; no accomplishments in the private sector of our economy of any note; no real accomplishments in government, either, for that matter; willing to say literally anything to attract votes from depraved and demented Democrat base voters; and he looks good on television. Hell, he even has his fake nickname that leads at least half of all Democrat voters to still think he is Hispanic or something, allowing him to tick off that “Minority” box even though he isn’t one, just like Fauxcahontas has made a habit of doing throughout her adult life in order to get ahead.

Today, I’m telling you that my February piece was overly-optimistic, and our hero’s window of opportunity most likely closed way back in January, maybe even December, before any of the other candidates got into the race.

There was plenty of reason in late November to believe O’Rourke could become the Democrat nominee. Yeah, he’d just lost his senate race to Ted Cruz, but he had made it pretty close thanks to a 3-to-1 spending advantage, and today’s Democrats are all about the moral victory, just fascinated with political losers. He was clearly the favorite of all the young girls in the news media and many of the young men as well, all of whom longed to get the plum assignment of covering his campaign.

He truly had everything going for him, all the political momentum in the world, and then…he decided to take a few months off. He said he had to go “find myself”, and spent weeks wandering around who knows where, live-streaming dental visits, doing interviews with an ever-willing Oprah and “60 Minutes” crew and apparently raising a clinically depressed black Labrador retriever.

December came and went. January came and went. February came and went and then half of March, until there were 11 Democrat candidates in the race, but still no precious Beto for all the local TV news anchors to swoon over. Simply put, by the time Irish Bob finally got around to formally announcing he was going to run, a huge portion of his potential support base that was firmly behind him in late 2018 had already moved on.

Even more devastating for the de facto favored candidate of the news media, many of his potential suitors had grown tired of being stood up for the date, and had even grown bitter. Even worse than that, some of them had even figured out the essence of his schtick, as evidenced by the headline of the piece published yesterday by the very liberal New Republic: “The Profound Emptiness of Beto O’Rourke.”  Ouch.

The leftwing media pushback wasn’t limited to the New Republic – far from it. The lunatics who run Slate beat them to the punch by two full days with an anti-Beto diatribe headlined “Beto 2020 Has No Reason to Exist.” Yikes.

By Friday, the growing awareness in the fake news media of Irish Bob’s essential emptiness as a human being and similarly-growing awareness by the Social Justice Warriors among the Democrat voter base that this guy with the Hispanic-sounding nickname is really just another pasty-faced white guy had the hacks at Politico using the dreaded “B” word:  “Not One Woman Got That Kind of Coverage: Beto Backlash Begins.” Hooboy.

Indeed, the backlash momentum had become so severe by week’s end that not even the news-fakers at CNN could resist getting in on the act:

 

Other leftist media organizations had become so bitter by Irish Bob’s months of dithering that they even assigned reporters to do some actual, real reporting on his dark personal background. That led to this report from Reuters making its way into publication on Friday:

Backstory: How Reuters uncovered Beto O’Rourke’s teenage hacking days – Reuters reporter Joseph Menn exclusively revealed on Friday that Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke belonged to one of the best-known groups of computer hackers as a teenager.

Oh, my.

This was not how it was all supposed to go for our precious Beto, not how it was supposed to go at all.

The fact that Friday was March 15, aka the Ides of March, had many speculating that Gestapo Chief, er, “Special Counsel” Robert Mueller would use the Caesarian symbolism of that date to issue his final report. Well, the long knives of the American Left were certainly out on Friday, but they weren’t coming for President Trump, they were coming for Irish Bob.

March 15, 2019 should forever be remembered as the Ides of Beto, the day it became obvious that the guy who couldn’t win Texas despite an enormous money edge and the entire national news media serving as his campaign’s propaganda operation won’t be able to compete on a national stage, either.

It turns out that window closed way back in January.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

 

Advertisements
Open post

Speaking of Political Losers, Heeeeeere’s Beto!

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is an actress. – Everyone should watch this video. Trust me, just watch it. It’ll be the best 23 minutes you invest this week. I’m going to keep this pinned at the top of each piece I post for the next few days in order to maximize its – and her – exposure.

And speaking of political losers. – Sometimes, events just follow the Campaign Update around.  Our focus yesterday morning was on the Democrats’ Ongoing Fascination With Political Losers, and – viola! – this morning, Irish Bob “Beto” O’Rourke is formally announcing his candidacy.

All the girls – and most of the guys – who pose as fake journalists in our fake news media are swooning and cooing sweet nothings they hope will eventually meet their precious Beto’s ears. Fake news hacks from El Paso to Austin to New York City to Washington D.C. are all lining up at the door to their fake editors’ offices, er, cubicles, vying for the glorious assignment of following the jumpy, sweaty, skate-boarding, 46 year-old around the country in the hopes that he will give them a passing glance, maybe one of his crooked smiles, or even – gasp! – repeat their name back to them during an evasive answer to one of their softball questions.

Oh, the glory! What more could a girl – or guy – possibly want amid a miserable life spent faking the news for a living?

The Texas Tribune, an Austin-based digital publication that acted as a pro bono PR firm for Irish Bob’s failed senate campaign last year, led with this paragraph in its story on this morning’s announcement:

“After months of intense speculation, Beto O’Rourke is entering the presidential race Thursday, marking an extraordinary rise from little-known El Paso congressman a few years ago to potentially formidable White House contender.”

Ah, so it’s been an “extraordinary rise”, has it, this progression from little-known congressman to senate race loser to presidential candidate currently pulling 6% in the Democrat preference polls? I suppose we should feel lucky the writer resisted the impulse to use the word “meteoric” instead.

To be fair, Irish Bob has been truly extraordinary at two things thus far:

  • He raised an extraordinary amount of out-of-state money in his senate race against Ted Cruz, ultimately out-spending Cruz by a 3-to-1 margin in a losing effort; and
  • He has attracted an extraordinary amount of free media from the fawning press, possibly more than any politician in U.S. history not named Obama or Clinton.

But maybe even more impressive is how many fake media outlets have chosen to publish pretty much the exact same “profile” of Irish Bob. Hell, Vanity Fair just put another one out there yesterday, complete with a photo spread by Annie Lebovitz.

Every profile of Irish Bob published over the past year reads like the breathless prose of a lovesick college coed, and they’re all structured as if torn from a page of a paint-by-the-numbers book:

  • Beto is “Kennedy-esque. Indeed, if that word does not appear in the story, it is not an official profile;
  • His hometown of El Paso, population of 683,577, is described as “small”, “backwater”, “isolated”, or my favorite, “dusty;”
  • He sweats a lot, and it shows. Swooning fake reporters spend a ton of time admiring Beto’s perspiration;
  • He rides a skateboard;
  • Hey, didja know he used to be in a punk rock band?;
  • The perpetually-jumpy politician with more tics than a stray dog has “nervous energy.” Oh;
  • His eyes are “piercing,” because hey, how else do you describe the eyes of someone who is “Kennedy-esque?” Just be glad they didn’t say “dreamy,” because that’s what they’re all really thinking.

Pablum for the masses, all in an effort to promote the candidacy of a guy whose main accomplishment in life – outside of having an admittedly-lovely family – is having raised $75 million in a senate race that he lost.

The conventional wisdom out there today seems to be that O’Rourke is getting into the race in an effort to become Joe Biden’s running mate in 2020. While I think that vastly underestimates Irish Bob’s massive ego, wouldn’t that outcome be wonderful?

Think about it: How would the rapidly-growing social justice warrior wing of the Democrat support base react if its 2020 convention were to nominate a ticket consisting of two of the most pasty-white men ever born in America outside of Wisconsin? It would be glorious.

So Irish Bob is officially in, and the Democrat fascination with political losers continues. I would say let the fawning fake news media slobbering over “Beto” begin, but as Vanity Fair and the Texas Tribune and many others demonstrate this morning, it began long ago.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Mueller Bites Into Another Ham Sandwich

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Robert Mueller has a passion for ham. – The Special Counsel’s office nabbed itself another ham sandwich in the dark of night, arresting former Trump adviser (prior to the 2016 election campaign) Roger Stone with CNN’s cameras conveniently present for the festivities. Funny how that works, huh?

The 66 year-old Stone, who is one of the most recognizable people in America at this point and not any sort of flight risk at all, was arrested at his home as FBI agents pounded on his door shouting “FBI! Open the door!” as they would if they were playing Elliot Ness in a Hollywood-produced film. Stone, after opening the door, was naturally taken away in handcuffs.

The arrest of Stone on a variety of process crimes having nothing to do with any “collusion” with anyone from Russia comes after 20 months of a Mueller-led rectal exam into every facet of his life. The obviously-coordinated media event also conveniently comes in the wake of recent releases of transcripts of the congressional testimonies of a series of FBI/DOJ anti-Trump cabal participants like Lisa Page and James Baker which contained revelations of all sorts of violations of law and process committed as part of the efforts to get Trump during 2016 and 2017. You know, actual news that CNN couldn’t be bothered to report.

Timing is everything if you’re a Special Counsel.

Stone was charged with a series of terrible-sounding process crimes like “obstruction of justice” (as if this Mueller and his band of Clinton/Obama shills were engaged in any sort of pursuit of actual “justice”), “witness tampering” and “lying to congress”, all of which sound great when trumpeted by the news-fakers at CNN. But God help him if he ever screwed up on a tax return, because at the end of the day all these other charges will almost certainly fall away and that is what he’ll end up going to jail for.

Just another day in the pursuit of “justice” by the American Gestapo.

And now for something completely different…: Here’s Irish Bob O’Rourke in a Sheep Suit.  No, really, I’m not making this up…

Conservatives like Jim Hanson making fun of Irish Bob over this video are just whistling past the graveyard.  Democrat voters eat this kind of stuff up. In their minds, O’Rourke in a onesie just makes him cool and hip and they’re all out there on Amazon this morning trying to figure out if they can buy one for themselves. And that sheep mask will be all the rage at Millennial Halloween parties this October.

At the end of the day, the release of this little snip of video will get Irish Bob another 5 percent in the Democrat 2020 nomination horse race polls.

He’s a shoe-in, folks.  Just get used to it: Beto-In-A-Sheep-Suit 2020!!!!

Actually, Mitch, you’re wrong. – The news-fakers at The Hill report this morning that GOP senators “Read the Riot Act” to Vice President Mike Pence at a closed-door luncheon yesterday. Led by Mitch McConnell, this group of half a dozen or so establishment unreliables informed the Veep that government shutdowns are “bad strategy”, with McConnell reminding Pence of his “favorite country saying” which is “there is no education in the second kick of a mule.”

Whatever that means.

We hear this nonsense all the time from McConnell and the GOP Squish lobby in the Senate and House. But every time we hear it, it is instructive to review the last time the GOP got blamed for a partial fake shutdown of the government.

That took place in October, 2013, when Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Utah Sen. Mike Lee – two actual, real conservative Republicans – led filibusters of a horrible budget bill to force a shutdown that lasted from October 1 through October 17 before they finally relented and agreed to a compromise.

As we see happening today, Democrats and their coordinating agents in the fake news media reacted to that action by Cruz and Lee with glee, assuring the public that Republicans would pay dearly at the ballot box when the 2014 mid-term congressional elections came around.  Because, that is what D.C. Swamp logic told them would happen, right?  Right.

But what actually did happen in the 2014 mid-term elections?  Why, the GOP base turned out in droves, and Republicans swept to huge gains in both the House and Senate.  In fact, this was the election in which Republicans gained control of the Senate for the first time since 2006, the election that put Cocaine Mitch into the Majority Leader’s role he holds today.

One would think McConnell might actually remember such a red-letter day in his career.

I have been involved in and written about politics for almost 40 years now, and it never ceases to amaze me how so many Republicans are simply incapable of recognizing the single most important lesson the great Ronald Wilson Reagan taught them: Republicans will always be rewarded by voters when they stand on principle and keep their promises, and will always be punished by them when they fail to do so.

In this government shutdown, President Donald Trump is standing on principle and keeping his promose, and he will be rewarded by the voters for doing so in 2020 so long as he does not capitulate.  Republicans who stand with him will also be rewarded. Republicans who do not stand with him will be punished.

It really is that simple.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Swalwell 2020: Nuking Gun Owners For Peace

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Hey, who is Marianne Williamson? –  I honestly have no idea who this person is, but the newsfakers at Politico think it is news that a person named Marianne Williamson is running for the Democrat Party’s presidential nomination in 2020.  According to Politico, she is a “spiritualist” – whatever that means – who ran an independent campaign for a California congressional seat in 2014, and failed. That race was won by Ted Lieu, one of the most despicable Democrats in today’s congress, so maybe we should be wishing she had won instead. She certainly could not be any worse.

Williamson’s main claim to legitimacy in the political arena appears to be that she is a “pal of Oprah Winfrey.”  Given that the two high-profile Democrat candidates Oprah campaigned for this year – Florida’s Andrew Gillum and Georgia’s Stacey Abrams – have been declared loooooooooosers in their gubernatorial races over the last 24 hours, it’s hard to see what value the Oprah seal of approval really has any more.

But hey, in case you’re interested and have actually heard of Marianne Williamson, she’s running. There you go.

Speaking of despicable California congressmen, Eric Swalwell did this on Friday:

Yes, all you gun owners out there, Democrat Rep. Swalwell responded to a guy on Twitter who said that the government would have to kill him to take his guns away by assuring the guy that the government would indeed kill him, with nukes. This promise to nuke gun owners will no doubt play extremely well with the demented Democrat base voters and dramatically enhance Swalwell’s chances in his 2020 presidential run.

Can’t wait to get me one of them “Swalwell 2020:  Nuke ’em for Peace!” bumper stickers.

Holy crap. You seriously cannot make this stuff up.

And since we’re speaking of despicable Democrat politicians… – The aforementioned Oprah acolyte Stacey Abrams “halted” her Georgia gubernatorial run on Friday, but made it clear she would never “concede” the race to the actual winner, Republican Brian Kemp.

In keeping with the Democrat Party’s 25-year campaign to declare every Republican win to be somehow illegitimate, Abrams blamed her loss not on the fact that she received more than 50,000 fewer votes than her opponent, but on “voter suppression”, which is her way of saying all Republicans are racists and she only lost because of their racism, or something. Because of course she did.

No, Texas is not turning blue anytime soon. – We’ve seen a lot of elections “experts”, i.e., liberals in the fake news media, offering sage analyses of the Texas election results and coming up with the conclusion that the state of Texas is going to turn blue as soon as 2020.

Let me assure you, as a 7th generation Texan, that ain’t gonna happen.

Yes, the Democrat Party made gains in Texas in the 2018 elections. The Dems flipped two congressional seats, 2 state senate seats and a dozen seats in the state’s house of representatives. It’s a BLUE WAAAAAAAVE, right?  Um, no, not really.

What those results mean is that the Texas congressional delegation is now 23 Rs and 13 Ds. The Rs will hold a 19-12 edge in the state senate, and 83 of the 150 seats in the state house.

Oh, and here’s the other thing all these “experts” fail to mention:  The Republicans won every statewide election held this year. Every one of them, from the governor’s office all the way down to the land office race. Yes, the winning margins were closer than they have been in the past 5 election cycles, but let’s think about why that happened.

I can explain the majority of it in two words:  Beto O’Rourke. His race against Ted Cruz was the first race on everyone’s ballot this year. O’Rourke, thanks to a flood of money from Hollywood and New York, was able to pour about $80 million into that race, outspending Cruz by a factor of about 3 to 1. Just above the senate race on the ballot was the option to vote straight Republican or straight Democrat tickets.

O’Rourke ran a mostly-positive campaign that excited a lot of voters in Texas. And thousands of those voters, perhaps hundreds of thousands of them, who might have otherwise voted for many Republicans, expressed their excitement for Irish Bob O’Rourke and saved a bunch of time by simply marking the box for the straight Democrat ticket.

There is simply no question that the ability to pour such a gargantuan amount of money into a single statewide race heavily influenced every race down the ballot. If you think the Republicans in Texas are going to get caught flat-footed in the money race again in 2020 or subsequent election cycles, you are going to be highly disappointed when those years come around.

I first started working Texas politics in 1996, two years after George W. Bush had become governor by defeating Ann Richards. At that time, all the “wise people” in Austin, all the analysts and lobbyists and reporters, assured me that this Republican thing was just a temporary aberration and that the Democrats would sweep back into power in the 1998 elections.  Instead, the Rs won every statewide office and took control of the state’s house of representatives and senate.

After that election, all these “wise people” kept assuring me that by 2002 or 2004, the state’s growing community of Hispanic voters would sweep the Democrats back into power. Here it is 2018, and it’s now a quarter of a century since any Dem won a statewide election in Texas.  Why?  Because the Republicans keep getting a higher and higher percentage of Hispanic votes as more and more Hispanics move up into the middle and upper classes of society. Republican candidates in this year’s election also saw a significant gain in their percentage of black voters.

Now, there is no doubt Texas Republicans have some work to do, especially with suburban and rural women, where they saw significant erosion of support in this year’s voting. Some of that is the Beto effect, but you sure can’t blame it all on that.

That is where the narrowing of the GOP majorities in both houses of the legislature could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, because those smaller margins are likely to force Republican leaders to focus on the state’s economic and budget matters in the upcoming legislative session, and leave all the social issues that tend to turn off those women voters on the sidelines.

In any event, any Democrat thinking they can just chalk up Texas’s mass of electoral votes to their party’s candidate for the presidency in 2020 or even in 2024 is just whistling past the graveyard.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

American Political Revolutions Never Come Easy

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

This was never going to be easy. No political revolution ever progresses in a straight line. The American system – the Constitution itself – strongly agitates against rapid, radical political change of any kind.

In the first two years of the Barack Obama Administration, Americans saw rapid, radical political change and rebelled against it, turning the House over to Republicans in 2010 and then the Senate in 2014.  Americans again saw rapid, radical change over the past two years, as President Donald Trump reversed about 90% of the Obama era from the history books, and reacted last night by turning the House back to the Democrats.

This is not only nothing out of the ordinary, it is exactly how the nation’s founders consciously wanted the system to work. No one on either side has to like it, but it is important to recognize this reality of the American system and work to affect change within its confines.

So, just as happened in 2010, we end up with a split decision as the voters basically send a signal to Washington, D.C. to slow down. The country writ large isn’t necessarily opposed to the general direction things have been moving, but just wants to take more time to think about things before they happen.  This isn’t always a productive dynamic within the voting public, but we have no choice but to accept the verdict and move on.

In the House of Representatives, where I was hopeful that the Republicans would be able to retain a small majority, the Democrat gain will end up being around 30 net seats, perhaps a few more.  In the Senate, it’s most likely going to be 55 Republicans vs. 45 Democrats/Commies for the next two years, which is exactly where I had figured we’d end up since January.

The sad part of it all is that we will now get nothing out of the House of Representatives other than hearings and subpoenas and bombastic posturing by clowns like Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff for 24 solid months.  The good part of that is that those clowns and others will no doubt so disgust the voting public with their outrageous behavior that the voters will rebel again in 2020 and turn the House back over to the Republicans.  We can always hope, anyway.

The 55 seat majority in the Senate (which is what it will be whenever someone wakes up and declares McSally and Rosendale the winners in their races) means that Mitch McConnell no longer has to worry about getting Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski’s squish votes on every judicial nominee. And praise the lord, fellow squishes Jeff Flake and Bob Corker will no longer be around because they retired. What a relief that is.

Another blessing is that we Texans won’t have to hear any more nonsense about Beto O’Rourke.  Well, at least until January, that is, when he declares his candidacy for the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination, at which point he becomes the nation’s problem child. But everyone should be grateful to Ted Cruz for at least giving us a two month break.

Speaking of breaks, what is that new noise you are hearing from your radios and television sets this morning? Why, it’s the sound of non-political commercials! Isn’t that a joyful noise? Yes, I hate commercials as much as the next guy, but I have honestly missed them as the commercial breaks have been filled with nothing but negative political ads for the last two months.

In my home state of Texas, Republicans once again won every statewide election – as they have done in every cycle for the past quarter-century – but leaders of the Texas GOP will be waking up this morning with an uneasy feeling. While Governor Greg Abbott and a few other officeholders won their re-elections by the traditional double-digit margins, Cruz only prevailed against his well-funded opponent by 3% and several others, including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, saw their winning edges cut to 5%.

Yes, Irish Bob O’Rourke’s ability to pour $80 million of California/New York money into his race at the top of the ticket had a significant impact in races all the way up and down the ballot. But there is little question that Texas Repubs need to do some real soul-searching and find ways to broaden their appeal, particularly to middle-class suburban women and Hispanics if they want to retain their statewide dominance for the next decade or more.

Some other observations:

  • In conceding his very close loss to Ron DeSantis in Florida’s governor’s race, Democrat Andrew Gillum displayed a high degree of class and dignity that will help sustain him as a force in Florida poltics for years to come. We have not heard the last of this guy.
  • Unfortunately, Democrat Stacey Abrams, the Democrat candidate for Governor in Georgia, can’t summon those same qualities within herself and will keep her state in turmoil despite her obvious defeat.  Sad.
  • Back in Texas, Republican Dan Crenshaw, the Purple Heart veteran who was smeared by the sick people at Saturday Night Live over the weekend, won his race and will serve in the House of Representatives for the next two years.  There is still justice in this world, although you often have to look too hard to find it.
  • It is truly gratifying that Jon Tester, the Democrat slug who smeared Admiral Ronny Jackson, is dying this long, slow political death up there in Montana this morning. Couldn’t happen to a more rotten guy.
  • Nevada is officially a blue state now, and that is frightening. One wonders how long it will take the Democrats to completely screw up the state money printing machine that is Las Vegas. I give it a decade.
  • Scott Walker finally, at long last, lost an election in the blue state of Wisconsin, ending one of the most amazing political success stories of modern times. We haven’t heard the last of Walker.
  • Socialist dimwit Alexandria Ocasio Cortez won her race, and God bless the people of Queens for giving her to us to make fun of for the next two years.
  • Once again, CNN completely outclassed all other TV outlets with its election coverage.  John King is without question, far and away the best election night analyst in the known universe.  While Fox News was having a coffee chat session with a bunch of pundits, King and Wolf Blitzer were taking CNN’s viewers on constant whirlwind, county-by-county, sometimes precinct-by-precinct tours of myriad house, senate and gubernatorial races all over the country.  I won’t turn the channel over to CNN again before 2020, but when Election Night comes around that November, I’ll make an exception.

Finally, as I was wrapping this up, just a few moments ago, President Donald Trump (I never tire of typing those three glorious words) whipped this out to Twitter land:

If you thought the man was going to be intimidated by Speaker San Fran Nan or Bugeyes Adam Schiff, well, think again.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog [Update 9]

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

 

Ok, folks, here we go.

Unlike I did this afternoon, I am going to run the Updates down the page, to keep them from getting mixed up with all the adds.  I will note each update with a number in the title, i.e., I will add “Update 1” to the title with the first update, “Update 2” with the 2nd, etc., so you’ll be able to easily know when something new is there.  I’ll also send out a tweet for those who follow on Twitter.

PLEASE COMMENT – I will be following your comments and responding to as many as I can.

What to look for early:

Kentucky HD 6 and Georgia HD 6 – if the Rs are leading in both these GOP-held districts when the polls close at 7:00 ET, it’s cause for celebration.  If the Ds are ahead, not so much.  Unless you’re a Democrat, of course.

Trump won both of these districts easily in 2016, but the Democrats have spent tons of money trying to turn them both.

Also, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th district.  That’s another the Ds are hoping to turn tonight.

If the Ds are winning in all of these districts, then their probability of taking the House becomes near-certain.  If they are losing them all, then we’re going to have a late night, perhaps early morning before we know where things are going.

Indiana Senate – We will also be seeing first numbers in this race at 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT.  It’s a big one, though not needed for the GOP to retain control in the Senate.  CNN’s already reporting what is most likely the absentee ballots, and Republican Braun is up big over Democrat incumbent Donnelly, but the Rs always lead in the absentee votes in Indiana.

We’ll see.

Back shortly.

UPDATE 9:  DeSantis and Scott are now likely to both win in Florida.  What an amazing turnaround.

Braun has won Indiana.

Blackburn has won Tennessee.

Manchin has won WVA.

Kramer will win North Dakota.

John James is competing strongly in Michigan.

Cruz is 100k votes down but there are still over 100 rural counties who have not reported any votes at all to this point.  Karl Rove says Cruz will win in the end because of that.  I think Rove is right.

Right now, the Ds lead in 31 Red districts, the Rs lead in 5 Blue districts, and Fox News is now projecting the Democrats will gain a majority at the end of the evening.

We’ll see.  I’m not convinced yet.

UPDATE 8:  Barr has won KY 6.  Brat is barely behind know in VY 7.  If Brat can come back, that would be huge.  Still a big fat ZERO votes counted in GA 6.

Both Republicans are still holding on in Florida’s statewide races with 96% of the vote counted, and it appears that the votes still outstanding are pretty evenly split between R and D areas of the state.  Holy cow.

Cruz still a little behind in Texas, but most rural areas are still yet to report.

In Tennessee, the senate race is not close at this point, but will tighten as the night goes along.  But I think Blackburn wins that one.  [Fox just called it for Marsha!]

DeWine now in the lead in the Ohio governor’s race!

Braun still killing it in Indiana!

Kramer’s going to kill Heitcamp!

John James actually leading in the early Michigan returns.

This night is shaping up nicely, folks.  Keep the faith.

 

UPDATE 7:  I continue to be struck how much tonight is like 2016, especially in Florida statewide races.  Here we sit again with 93% of the votes counted, and the races are too close to call.  In 2016, everyone assumed all the outstanding votes were in the Miami/Broward area and Trump would lose.  But it turned out that there were still a bunch of votes sitting uncounted in GOP areas, and in a bunch of GOP-leaning precincts in South Florida.  Trump wins.

Cruz finally takes the lead in Texas, as the early vote returns start to finally come in from rural areas.  He will continue to build that lead as the night goes on.

Right now, I have to say that things are stacking up pretty nicely for the Rs.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

UPDATE 6:  Ok, things are starting to shape up now:

– Cruz is going to win by 8-10 points, based on what we are seeing early.  Cool.

– Both DeSantis and Scott have now moved into leads in their races.  But most of the outstanding votes are in Miami/Broward area.  You have to think the Ds will win, but we thought the same in the 2016 presidential race, too.

– Barr is building his lead in KY 6.

– Bratt is holding on in VA 7.  Most remaining votes are in R areas.

– Braun still killing it in Indiana.

– Still not a damn vote in in GA 6.  Unreal.

– Despicable Donna Shalala has won FL 27, a Democrat pickup.  Ugh.

 

UPDATE 5:  Barr now dead even in KY 6, Brat has fallen behind, though just by a couple thousand votes.  Still nothing on GA 6.  What the hell?

Oops, Barr took the lead with 77% of the vote counted just as I hit “enter” on this update.

DeSantis now within 1.2%, Scott within 1.4% in Florida, as the Panhandle votes finally start coming in.  Still lots of votes outstanding in Miami/Dade, though, too, though.  No way to call those races yet.

Again, it’s 2016 all over again down there.

Braun retaining a strong lead on Donnelly, but he needs it for when Indiana’s larger cities start reporting votes later tonight.

Irish Bob O’Rourke is up early over Ted Cruz, but it’s just Dallas turning in its early vote totals.  No worries, yet.

 

UPDATE 4:  Brat now moving out to a significant lead in VA7.  Barr has pulled within .3% in KY 6, still tons of votes to be counted.

The FL Gov and Sen races are tightening with every update.  Nelson had led by as much as 6% but now up by 2.  Gillum up by just 1.6.

Nothing in from GA 6 yet, unfortunately.

This feels an awful lot like 2016, doesn’t it?  Yes, it does.

 

UPDATE 3:  Brat now actually looking ok in early returns, which are most likely from urban areas.  He’ll be stronger in the suburbs and rural areas.

Braun running much stronger against Donnelly right now in rural areas than expected.  Well ahead of pace so far.

Can’t help noticing that CNN goes to their black anchor person every time there’s an update to be given on the Florida and Georgia governor’s races, both of which feature black candidates for the Ds.  So damn ridiculous.

The encouraging thing about Florida right now is that, even though the Rs trail in the Gov and Sen races, votes are already coming in from Miami/Dade County, which is unusual.

In KY 6, D McGrath is now well ahead of R Barr.  Ugh.  Still early, though, and don’t know where the votes are from yet.

 

UPDATE 2:  Ok, it’s time to say it:  CNN just kicks Fox’s ass on these election night events.  Fox just has a bunch of people sitting around pontificating while CNN is giving us every detail in every county in every state.  I normally never tune in to CNN, but on election nights, man, there’s really no choice here.

 

UPDATE 1:  Bill Nelson is underperforming his 2012 re-election in Florida so far, by about 5%.  That was a very close race, so that again bodes well for the GOP in the Sunshine State.  Most vote in so far are from heavily-Democrat Pinellas County.

 

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Live Blog: Election Day On Twitter – Data, Media Bias, Fun Stuff

The Campaign Update Election Day Preview Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

[Note:  I will be live-blogging election results on a new thread starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time.]

Check in here throughout the afternoon for further updates.

UPDATE @4:20 CT:

Ok, I’m going to close this one down right here.  Will start this evening’s open thread at 6:00 CT sharp – please join me and offer comments and information as you find it.  Thanks.

 

UPDATE @4:10 CT:

The folks at ZeroHedge.com have a really nice piece on when the polls in every state close and what to watch for when they do…

 

UPDATE @3:55 CT:

Not good news for Dean Heller out in Nevada…

UPDATE @3:10 CT:

Michael Newton with some more good early voting data…

 

UPDATE @2:20 CT: 

Nate Silver’s 538.com weighs in with its final “blue wave” prediction…

It’s fair to note that 538 also gave Hillary Clinton better than a 70% chance of winning the presidency on Election Day 2016.

538 also provides this interesting look-back at previous mid-term outcomes…

 

UPDATE @ 2:00 CT:

Final AZ early voting numbers are in, and they look good for McSally…

Michael Newton, who everyone would do well to follow on Twitter, makes a great point here…

Another tweeter everyone would to well to follow, au ng, has final Early Voting numbers from Florida, and again, they are very positive for the GOP…

 

UPDATE @12:30 CT:

Man, nobody would have ever guessed this would happen.  Oh, wait…

What?  Climate Change is not at the top of everyone’s mind today?  How can this be?

UPDATE @12:22 CT:  Trafalgar with some more final polls…

 

 

Noon, CT:  Let’s start with some key data points that have come across the @GDBlackmon Twitter feed today….

The Republican polling firm Trafalgar Group releases its final Florida poll this morning, and it is glorious if accurate:

Trafalgar was also the last firm to poll the Texas senate race…

Man, if this TargetSmart bunch has an accurate means of estimating early vote turnout, this is going to be an epic Red Wave.  TargetSmart, by the way, is a Democrat polling firm…

In Phoenix, Republicans are doing better in every city ward than they did in 2016. Bad news for nutjob Democrat Kyrsten Sinema…

This just happened in the world of media bias…

Ok, this is funny.  And sadly accurate…

 

That is all, for now.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Pro Tips for Election Night Results-Watching

The Evening Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

[I will be live-blogging the mid-term election results here starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time Tuesday.  Please join me in the comments section for tons of fun as the results either make me look like the smartest guy on the planet or a damn fool.  Could go either way.]

Some pro tips for Election Night Results-Watching:

  • We may have a very good idea on how the House balance of power will end up fairly early in the evening. – A large number of the “tossup” seats in this election are in closely-divided districts in Florida, Virginia, New York and Pennsylvania, all in the Eastern time zone.  So, by 8 p.m. Central Time, we should have a pretty good idea of what the trend in those districts is, or if there is no trend at all.
  • There aren’t many other key House districts in the Central or Mountain time zones. – Once you get out of the states on the Eastern Seaboard, you only have a handful of key House districts until you get to California, where the Democrats are heavily contesting 10 remaining GOP-held seats.  If the Ds haven’t clinched the majority in the House by the time polls close in California, it’s going to be a long night.  If they have, the state loses its importance in the grand scheme of things, though it will still be interesting to see if Rs like Dana Rohrabacher can hang in there for one more term in office.
  • If the House goes early, the Senate probably will, too. – Here is where Florida is such a key.  The Republicans are going to end up at least 60,000 votes ahead of 2016 in the early voting results.  Trump won Florida by 117,000 votes in 2016, so if you add 60,000 to that, you get a fairly high hill for incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson to climb in his run for re-election against sitting GOP Governor Rick Scott.  If we see Scott losing this race by, say, 5% or more when the early returns come in, then that will likely mean it’s going to be along night for the GOP.  If we see Scott keeping it closer than that in the early returns, that means good news for Republicans is probably going to be coming in all night long.
  • Georgia’s governor’s race is also key. – This race shouldn’t be as close as the polls claim it is.  If the early returns show a neck-and-neck race here, then you can probably expect a pretty late night overall.
  • Don’t be surprised if Irish Bob O’Rourke leads Ted Cruz early in Texas. – The major metro areas in Texas lean Democrat as a whole, and their returns always come in earlier than the rural counties.  Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by ~160,000 votes when the early voting was reported at 7:00 by the Secretary of State’s office.  But then the rural counties started to come in and that more than reversed.  In total, rural Texas went for Trump by more than 1 million votes in 2016.  Expect to see a similar dynamic in this race.
  • Ignore leaked “exit polls.” – At some point around mid-day, one more more major media outlets will report on “leaked” exit poll information showing Democrats well ahead and moving towards their long-coveted “blue wave.”  Ignore those reports.  First of all, these “exit polls” are commissioned by those same damn media outlets, and the “leaks” are designed to depress GOP turnout on Election Day.  They’ve been playing this despicable game since 2000.  The good news is, it never works.
  • It’s Ok to watch CNN. – Aside from the obvious benefits of seeing all the long faces over there if the Republicans have a good night, John King was actually much better and more even-handed at reporting on results and trends than anyone else on Election Night 2016.  Fox News was actually the worst place to be on Election Night 2016, as they focused far more on giving everyone with a contributor contract time to weigh in on stuff they know nothing about than on actually reporting on election results.  Thus, Fox News was among the last to recognize the reality that Trump was actually about to win.
  • Whenever Juan Williams or Shep Smith appear on your TV screen, change channels. – Trust me, it’s better for your blood pressure.
  • Pace yourself on your favorite beverage. – Don’t hit the juice too hard early, because it could be a long night, just like 2016.  And don’t break out the champagne too early like all the Democrats did two years ago – it’ll go flat in just a few hours, and that’s never good.

Personally, I’ll be drinking Tito’s and Topo Chico with a twist of lime and a couple of cubes of sugared ginger root – my own personal Texas Mule recipe.  If Florida goes bad early, that’ll probably start showing up in my updates around 8:30 Central Time.

Be careful out there.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Vote Republican. It’s Your Civic Duty.

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Hey!  There’s an election tomorrow!  I will be live-blogging it here starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time.  Please join me in the comments section for tons of fun as the results either make me look like the smartest guy on the planet or a damn fool.  Could go either way.

Get out and vote for Republicans. – If you haven’t already done so, get your sorry butt out to the polls tomorrow and vote Republican.  Period.  There is nothing to think about here.  Just find that “Straight Republican” button and hit it. Oh, and then wait and watch to make sure that your voting machine then populates the votes properly, because we have had reports of things not working properly (imagine that).

And yes, vote the straight Republican ticket, regardless of where you live.  I’m in Texas, as most of you know by now, and this is the easiest decision we’ve ever had.  I’m a ticket-splitter from way back, but way back was when there were still decent people running for office as Democrats.  No more.

Anyone who buys into today’s Democrat agenda, which includes stuff like Antifa, assaulting Trump supporters in public places, rampant voter fraud, single-payer healthcare, raising your taxes and open borders, is not a decent person.  Sorry, they just aren’t.  They might be good fathers, loving mothers and otherwise good citizens, but if they support the Democrat agenda, they can no longer be described as decent human beings. That’s what 25 years of running the party on the principles of Saul Alinsky has done for them.

If you have a problem with any Republican candidate, just remember that his or her opponent is a Democrat, and your problem becomes no problem at all. Democrats are not allowed anymore to be independent operators. A guy like Irish Bob O’Rourke is promising to go to Washington and buck the system, becoming an “independent voice” for Texans.

The truth is that Irish Bob would become the de facto third senator from New York as Chuck Schumer leads him around by the nose, telling him not only how to vote on every issue, but also which approved talking points to recite during his appearances on CNN and MSNBC. Hell, if you’re Joe Manchin, Schumer even dictates which lines at the State of the Union speech you can stand and applaud.  Manchin’s a three-term incumbent – you think a rookie from Texas is going to be treated any better?

The same goes for Colin Allred, the guy running against GOP incumbent congressman Pete Sessions.  Allred is a very good-looking and articulate guy, promising to go to Washington and challenge San Fran Nan at every turn on behalf of Texans. The truth is that San Fran Nan would have him wrapped around her crooked little finger about 5 minutes after he lands at Reagan National Airport.  Because Democrats march in lockstep on every issue. Period.

So, if you’re thinking about voting for O’Rourke or Allred, think again.  They’re Democrats.  If you’re thinking of voting for the Democrat (whomever it is) running against George P. Bush for Texas Land Commissioner because you don’t like Bush’s plan to turn the Alamo and surrounding grounds into a glorified amusement park, well, join the crowd.  But do you think the Democrat has a better idea?  Seriously?  What would that be – to turn it over to the federal Department of the Interior for safe keeping?

C’mon, man.  Be serious.

In the past two years, America has embarked on an almost unprecedented period of relative peace in the world and economic growth. The Trump Administration has reasserted American authority at the United Nations, NATO and all the various G-7, G-20 and whatever other G-something or other summits there are these days. The horrendous turmoil in the Middle East that resulted from the Obama-sanctioned “Arab Spring” has been greatly calmed and ISIS has been largely destroyed.

The Crazy Little Fat Guy over in North Korea hasn’t fired a missile in hostility in many months, and his main interactions with the U.S. these days involve requesting more meetings with the Secretary of State and other U.S. representatives to get approval for his next step toward decommissioning his country’s nuclear capabilities.

Russia, which invaded Crimea, Syria and the Ukraine during the Obama years, hasn’t invaded anyone since January 20, 2017.  This is not a coincidence.  China has been helpful with the Trump approach to North Korea, and now appears ready to make a real trade deal after five months of escalating “trade war” with the United States has begun to damage its economy.

So, after you’ve had a couple of cups of coffee and showered tomorrow morning (yes, please shower for everyone’s sake), go vote.  For Republicans.  Straight ticket.  It’s not just the right idea, it’s your duty if you love this country.  It’s the easiest decision you’ve ever had.

And now, for some final predictions:

The Republicans will gain a net 4 senate seats, defeating McCaskill in Missouri, Heitcamp in North Dakota, and some combination of Tester in Montana, Manchin in West Virginia, Nelson in Florida and Donnelly in Indiana.  They will lose some combination of Heller in Nevada or McSally in Arizona.  The net of all of that will be a 4-seat gain and an overall 55-seat majority for the next two years.

In the House, the Republicans hold onto their advantage, losing a net 15 seats.

That’s where I’ve been since January, and I see no reason to change now.

In some specific high-profile races:

Irish Bob “Beto” O’Rourke’s $80 million campaign will buy him 45% of the vote in his race against Ted Cruz.  Four years ago, $30 million got Wendy Davis 39% of the vote.  So, if the Democrats can throw about $125 million behind some chosen golden child in 2022, they might actually win a race in Texas.

But this year, Republicans will win every statewide election in Texas, as they have done in every statewide election cycle since 1994.

Republican Brian Kemp will win 52% of the vote in the Georgia governor’s race, just enough to avoid a runoff there.

In Florida, the early voting is tilting very nicely for the Republicans, who always have a significant voting edge on Election Day.  Based on that, I think Ron DeSantis will eke out a very narrow win in the governor’s race over Democrat/socialist Andrew Gillum there.

Again, I’m either going to look like a genius or a damn fool come Wednesday morning, but we’ll have fun tomorrow night regardless.
That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Posts navigation

1 2 3 4
Scroll to top
%d bloggers like this: