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The Democrat/Media Panic Porn is Losing Traction Fast

Today’s Campaign Update (Because the Campaign Never Ends)

Tired of all this WINNING yet? – The stock markets had a bleak opening Monday morning following a weekend during which the Democrats and their corrupt media toadies loaded the airwaves with Wuhan Virus panic porn. The Dow opened down by more than 600 points, with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also down from Friday’s highs. For awhile it seemed as if the panic porn parade at CNN and MSNBC would be able to cancel out all of the positive inertia that had underpinned the markets for the previous month.

But then a funny thing happened: About an hour into the session the markets slowly began to recover. Later in the day, after the Federal Reserve Board announced it would begin making purchases of corporate bonds, it recovered fully, with the Dow finishing the day in the green by 157 points. Today promises to be even better, as futures point to a positive opening which could see the NASDAQ achieve another new all-time record high.

The Democrats and their media toadies are going to need a new false narrative. The panic porn is failing.

Speaking of failed panic porn… – Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt is looking for a bigger venue. That’s because more than 1 million Americans have now requested tickets to attend this Saturday’s Trump Campaign kickoff rally in Tulsa.

With Trump fans already camping out at the 19,000 seat BOK arena in downtown Tulsa, Stitt can see that that facility is inadequate to satisfy demand for the event. “We’re excited we’re being recognized as one of the first states to safely and measurably reopen,” Stitt told reporters Monday. “I’m looking for a potential other venue that maybe we could move it outside. It’s still kind of in the works.”

The corrupt news media, doing the bidding of its Democrat Party masters, continued to ramp up the pressure on the Trump Campaign to cancel the event based on the false narrative of a “second wave” of the viral gift from China supposedly taking place. Even Fox News’s Martha MacCallum got in on the action last night during an interview with Lara Trump, but Ms. Trump was having none of it.

“Everybody has a choice. Nobody is being forced to sign up to come to this rally,” Lara Trump told host Martha MacCallum. “This is a record-setting response that we have gotten to this and I think it speaks to the fact people are ready to get back to life.

“You contrast, Martha, the way the media and the experts have talked about this Trump rally — this one Trump rally where it’s around 20,000 people that can be in attendance in this arena — with the way that they discussed the protests where we had thousands of people all across this country,” she added.

[End]

Interestingly, one of the arguments the Axis of Disinformation has made against the rally is that it would put so many people together in an indoor arena. Moving the event to a larger, outdoor facility – to, say, the 30,000 seat H.A. Chapman Stadium, where Tulsa University football games are played – removes that argument from the playing field, so to speak.

The Panic Porn campaign is failing. There are a lot of different ways to skin this cat. This event is going to happen.

It’s failing in New York City, too. – Yesterday evening we told you about the despicable action by New York City’s antisemitic Mayor, Bill de Blasio, of having his police department put padlocks and welds on the gates of the main park in the middle of Brooklyn’s largest Jewish neighborhood. It’s the latest move in an increasingly aggressive and highly disturbing campaign the Mayor has mounted targeting the city’s Jewish community, justified, of course, by all the disinformation spread about the Wuhan Virus.

That happened yesterday morning. Yesterday evening, leaders of that Jewish community took matters into their own hands:

This is America, folks, these are Americans, and that is one of the most American things you will ever witness. There is no science, no data and most importantly, no real law supporting the notion that their children – who are almost impregnable to this virus – should not be able to play at the local park. Just the fascist edicts of an utterly corrupt nitwit drunk on power in the Mayor’s office.

These Americans are not buying into all the panic porn being spoon-fed to them every night on their television screens, and neither should you.

It’s time for America to become a free country again.

That is all.

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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The Evening Wrap: So Much WINNING, Bad Polls for Dems and the Sad Truth About the Generals

Tired of all this WINNING yet? – In response to today’s incredible May jobs report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketed up by more than 800 points, closing above 27,000 for the first time since March. The Dow has now regained almost 85% of its initial losses suffered due to the insane response to the Wuhan Virus.

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ gained almost 200 points, closing at 9,814, a new all-time high.

It’s key to remember that May’s jobs gains were achieved despite the fact that two of the nation’s three largest state economies – California and New York – remain mostly shut-down. Those two states, along with New Jersey, Michigan and Illinois, other Democrat dominated states that remain mostly closed, represented almost 40% of the national economy prior to the advent of COVID-19. If the Democrat governors of those states insist on maintaining their politically-motivated shutdowns into and through the summer, a good portion of that previous economic might will migrate to “free states” like Texas, Ohio and Florida.

While those of us in the free states would love to have the added economic might, the migrants who come with it need to leave their Democrat voting habits behind.

Because lies are all he has at his disposal. – Creepy Uncle Quid Pro Farty China Joe Biden, responding to today’s fantastic jobs report, told an audience that Hispanic unemployment had shot up to 37%. In reality, the rate among Hispanics dropped to 17.6%. But who’s counting, right?

Golly, who do you think might have done this (Antifa, BLM)? – A 600,000 square foot Amazon warehouse went up in flames today in Redlands, California. So, a whole bunch of cheap crap made in China is no longer for sale.

Polls? What polls? – The latest Rasmussen survey finds that Black support for President Donald Trump has rocketed up to 40% as millions of African Americans have seen their neighborhoods looted, vandalized and burned by “peaceful protesters.” Funny how that works.

Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll finds that just 16% of those surveyed support the whole “defund the police” movement now being pushed by Democrat radicals in Minneapolis, Los Angeles and other big cities. From a piece in the California Globe:

Earlier this week, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti announced he was cutting $150 million from the police department budget and would give it to communities of color instead,” California Globe reported. Across the country, Democrats are calling for police departments to be abolished entirely or defunded.

Garcetti, who was photographed taking a knee in with black leaders, even said he will put a moratorium on adding names of people into the CalGang database.

Garcetti’s handlers and pollsters may want to reconsider. A YouGov poll found “despite calls by activists and protesters to defund police departments, most Americans do not support reducing law enforcement budgets. Close to two-thirds (65%) oppose cutting police force funding. Just 16 percent of Democrats and 15 percent of Republicans support that idea.”

The poll was conducted from May 29 – 30, George Floyd was killed by a Minneapolis police officer, but before the worst of the rioting in America’s big cities.

The poll also found strong bipartisan support for more training for police officers on how to de-escalate conflicts and avoid using force: 94% support among Democrats; 83% support among Republicans. A similar number of Democrats (91%) and Republicans (82%) support outfitting all police officers with body cameras.

[End]

Oh.

In related news, the loudmouths on the Minneapolis city council who were spouting off about de-funding the police on Twitter and in press conferences yesterday suddenly backed off, and were set to consider limited measures that would ban the police using choke holds and require by-standing officers to step in to stop fellow officers they see using excessive force. Those are common-sense measures that most Americans actually support.

As always, we see Democrats making every decision they make based on polling data. It’s pathetic, really.

If you want to understand the real reason why these retired generals and admirals dislike and fear President Trump, first understand that they pretty much all sit on boards of big defense contractors and are becoming fabulously wealthy doing that and writing books, like the one General James Mattis is hawking right now.

Now, consider the fact that today, President Trump announced that he will be pulling 9,500 U.S. troops out of Germany and bringing them back home, just the latest step in his ongoing campaign to end such senseless and unnecessary wastes of billions of defense dollars all over the globe. We have had thousands of troops stationed in Eastern Europe since the end of WWII, ostensibly to protect Germany and other countries from an invasion by the Soviet Union, a country that hasn’t existed for 30 years.

Germany is a wealthy, industrialized country that is fully capable of paying for its own defense, and should be required to do so. But the military/industrial complex that Dwight Eisenhower warned us about as he left office in 1960 continues to lobby hard to keep us spending hundreds of billions annually on these foolish endeavors.

Trump’s America first policies are not, as Mattis dishonestly contends, any threat to U.S. national security, but they are a threat to his and many other retired generals’ and admirals’ efforts to cash in at the ends of their careers.

I don’t at all like saying that about these men who have served this country for many years, but it’s the truth, and a damn sad one.

That is all.

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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The Evening Wrap: Rosenstein Tosses McCabe Under the Bus, and Other WINNING News

So many items of WINNING news today it’s hard to know where to start.

How about this: The ADP private sector jobs report for May is in, and although it’s a big negative number, it’s still positive news in the context of this whole self-imposed Wuhan Virus recession. The ADP number for May came in at a net jobs loss of 2.76 million, which is obviously a depressing number. But – and it’s a big BUT – the consensus of projections by the so-called experts in this field had predicted a loss of 8.663 million jobs, almost 6 million more than the actual number.

What this means is pretty clear:

– Many workers who had lost jobs over the last 10 weeks and filed initial claims for unemployment quickly found new jobs;

– Businesses are reopening faster than the “experts” have anticipated despite the efforts by an array of Democrat governors to prevent that from happening in states like Michigan, New York, California, Oregon, New Jersey and Nevada;

– The reduction in economic growth has obviously not been as deep and severe as most have estimated.

That’s why we have this next bit of WINNING news: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketed up above 26,000 today, just 5 trading days after it topped 25,000 last Wednesday, and just 9 weeks after it bottomed out at 18,591. That is a rise of ~40% in a little over 2 months.

At the same time, the NASDAQ hit 9,681 today, and is now within just 70 points of regaining every bit of the losses it suffered in March. Given that the stock markets tend to reflect where investors believe the economy will be 3 to 6 months from now, that represents a stunning vote of confidence in the U.S. economy.

Obviously, the investor class in our country has just as little faith in the economic “expert” class as you and I do.

Oh, hey, then there’s this: You may be wondering why all the rioting across the country suddenly got dialed back last night. President Trump is saying that it’s because some mayors – like Eric Garcetti in Los Angeles – called in the National Guard, and that likely has a lot of merit. But other depraved Democrats like Bill de Blasio and Lori Lightfoot in Chicago did not do that, yet saw a dramatic decrease in violence and mayhem in their cities, too.

Here’s why I believe that happened: The Democrats – and thus, Antifa and Black Lives Matter – got hold of bad polling data, which meant all the bad out-of-state actors were ordered to go home. Remember, every decision the Democrats make is based on polling data.

The bad data on the riots came to them in the form of a new poll from the very liberal Morning Consult polling group, which finds that Americans favor using the National Guard and the U.S. military to put down these riots by a frankly amazing 58%-30% margin. The move is even favored by Democrat voters by a 48-43 margin.

In another bit of bad polling data (for Democrats), the Rasmussen survey shows that a large plurality of Americans consider Antifa to be a terrorist organization. 49% of respondents answered yes, while just 30% said no.

If you don’t think that data caused a ton of Democrat heads to explode, then you don’t understand how Democrats think and operate.

Uhhhh, who to believe – Rod Rosenstein? Or Andrew McCabe? – It’s a very tough choice, but that is what America faces today following an interesting Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in which the oily, rodent-like former Acting Attorney General offered his sniffing and slurping testimony. In this instance, I would tend to believe Rosenstein, if only for the fact that being slightly more believable than the pathological liar McCabe is such a low damn bar.

As we pointed out yesterday, Rosenstein has much to answer for related to his gross misconduct in office during the active coup d’etat effort which he personally facilitated from May 2017 through March 2019. Sadly, the stilted format of these hearings and uselessness of so many of the GOP senators meant that he only had to answer for a few of those things today.

The main focus of the few Republicans who really went after Rosenstein today – Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz and Chuck Grassley – was why Rosenstein signed off on the 4th fraudulent FISA warrant and appointed Robert Mueller shortly after he had assumed the office of Deputy Attorney General. Rosenstein’s wormy answer basically amounted to, “hey, I was just going on the information provided to me by Andy McCabe and his evil team, which included Peter Strzok and Lisa Page.”

Remember, at a press conference two years ago, Rosenstein went on and on about the fact that “In order to get a FISA warrant, you need an affidavit signed by a career law enforcement officer who swears the information is true… And if it is wrong, that person is going to face consequences.”

Remember that? I do, and today Rosenstein outright admitted his signing off on that FISA warrant based solely on the word of a pathological liar and his demonic staff was, well, wrong. But of course, he then added that, hey, he was just the new guy at DOJ and couldn’t be expected to try to verify any of the BS he was being fed by McCabe and Strzok and Page.

Naturally, McCabe was watching the proceedings at home – or maybe at CNN headquarters, where he remains employed as a richly-paid on-screen liar, er, “contributor” – and he issued a statement defending himself as the hearing was progressing, as reported by JustTheNews.com:

In a statement apparently authored shortly after Rosenstein made that assertion, McCabe said that Rosenstein’s “claims to have been misled by me or anyone from the F.B.I.” were “completely false.”

“I briefed Mr. Rosenstein on Jim Comey’s memos describing his interactions with the president days after Mr. Rosenstein wrote the memo firing Jim Comey,” McCabe said, in a statement read by committee Chairman Lindsey Graham.

Rosenstein’s remarks “loo[k] to be another sad attempt by the president and his men to rewrite the history of their actions in 2017,” McCabe said. “They have found in Mr. Rosenstein, then and now, a willing accessory in that effort.”

[End]

Hilariously, Lindsey Graham closed the hearing out by reading McCabe’s statement and allowing Rosenstein to give one more worm-like answer:

“I did not say that Mr. McCabe misled me,” he said. “Those were not my words. I think he is responding to somebody’s question.”

“What I said was, he did not reveal the Comey memos to me for a week. And that is true. He revealed them to me only a couple of hours before they showed up in the New York Times, and he did not reveal to me that he was having internal deliberations with his team about whether to target high-profile people for investigation.”

[End]

Here’s reality: Rosenstein admitted under oath today that he had zero basis for signing that FISA warrant; zero basis for believing anyone in the Trump Campaign or Transition team was colluding with the Russians; and thus, zero basis for appointing a special counsel. He admitted that he basically didn’t know nuthin’ about nuthin’ and just allowed himself to be strung along by the coup cabal made up of Obama holdovers at the DOJ and FBI.

Absolutely sickening.

Tomorrow, expect the GOP majority to vote unanimously to issue subpoenas to more than 50 Obama loyalists who tried to fix the 2016 election and then overthrow a duly-elected POTUS.

This is actually gonna be fun to watch.

I leave you with this absolutely epic clip of Senator Ted Cruz destroying Rosenstein, Barack Obama, Susan Rice and Joe Biden at today’s hearing:

That is all.

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Boom: Trump Sets Target Date For Re-Opening America

Today’s Campaign Update, Part II (Because the Campaign Never Ends)

Early Tuesday morning, President Trump continued to signal that it is his intention to re-open the U.S. economy and get Americans back to work sooner rather than later. Repeating yesterday’s theme that the government can’t afford to implement a draconian “cure” that is worse than the China Virus itself, the President issued the following tweet:

A few hours later, President Trump had this to say on “Outnumbered” on Fox News:

Transcript:

Trump: The Senate and the House, we seem to be getting a long as much as you can get along. We seem to be getting a long now on a bill. I think that maybe had even less than an impact than the fact that we’re opening up this incredible country. Because we have to do that.

I’d love to have it all open by Easter [April 12]. I would love to have it open by Easter, I will tell you that right now. I would love that. It’s such an important day for other reasons, but I’ll make it an important day for this, too. I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter.

[End]

For an investment community hungering to see a bottom reached in the stock market indexes, this is a crucial moment in time. There is no way the markets can find their bottom when they have no certainty – or even any real idea – about when business might resume and start getting the economy fully back on-line.

Markets were already soaring today on the prospect of the Democrats caving in and allowing the Senate stimulus measure to move through the process. The President’s move to set a firm target date for beginning to get the economy moving again will only serve to support that positive sentiment among investors longing for some good news.

As usual, President Trump’s sense of timing yesterday and today was impeccable. Be glad he’s your President.

That is all.

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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The Economy is Booming, but Troubling Signs Loom

Guest Piece by Lior Gantz of FutureMoneyTrends

In the past few days, markets have been SPIRALING upwards. In fact, the average person feels GREAT about the economy, about his workplace, about his portfolio and about American dominance.

This happens to coincide with the most overbought stock market conditions in history.

As you know, as long as central banks keep lowering interest rates, there’s no reason to assume that stocks will crash in a major way or go sideways. Investors have ZERO alternatives, compared with the power of American businesses that are growing at a pace of 6%-8% a year, and pay dividends on top of it.

In the short term, though, Wall Street is SELLING and it will continue taking profits, so we might need to wait 3-4 more weeks for sentiment to turn bearish, before getting aggressive again.

Just look at the bullishness of Main Street America:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

Fundamentally, America’s economy is truly BOOMING. Many millions, though, still have NO CHANCE of joining the prosperous landscape, but advancements have been noticeable in the past three years.

For example, the bottom 50% of wage-earners have seen a 47% increase in compensation. That’s more than what the top 1% have enjoyed during the Trump era.

Many families have risen back to middle class status and many others no longer need food stamps.

Of the 60,000 factories that were either closed or outsourced in the past 20-30 years, 12,000 new ones are operating on U.S. soil and many more are planned or are getting built.

The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA (that cost America 25% of its manufacturing labor force), is forecasted to create 100K new high-paying jobs.

And, so, the problem is CLEAR AS DAY: Trump’s tax cuts, deregulation, trade negotiation, new legislation and aggressive initiatives are working for the private sector and unleashing the free enterprise system, but the DEFICITS are just STUPIDLY increasing.

You can see this disaster by checking out the debt/GDP ratio:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

In his State of the Union Address, Trump specifically mentioned that Washington will not default on its Social Security promises. What this means is that the government will have to RESORT to other measures to fund its ATOMIC national debt, going forward.

So, while 50 million Americans watched Trump’s speech and his approval ratings hit all-time highs, Wall Street is cashing out for a bit.

The big players did the same thing in February ‘17, January ‘18 and February ‘19. Computer Traded Algorithms and large funds move the markets; if you’re bullish, you are playing with fire.

Another sign that the mom-and-pop investors have gone BERSERK is this:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

Many “EXPERTS” have gone bankrupt or have caused other investors to LOSE FORTUNES, by pounding the table that TSLA should be shorted.

Jim Rogers offered up the best advice on shorting manias: markets stay irrational more than you can stay solvent. In other words, he has warned investors that fundamentals don’t matter in times of manias.

This isn’t the only sign of trouble. On Tuesday, I issued a trading warning on gold and it crashed just minutes later.

I still analyze gold’s sentiment as TOO-BULLISH:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

The S&P 500 companies are currently reporting earnings and seven out of ten are BEATING expectations. It seems like the economy is better than most believe it is, which is the reason that companies that focus on consumers are BREAKING RECORDS.

We’ve capitalized on this and will continue to cover this topic.

In his SOTU address, Trump also highlighted healthcare and the need to have a healthy country, full of educated citizens.

That’s a huge opportunity – millennials are the most health-driven generation in America’s history!

 

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Has the Fed Created a Stock Market Bubble?

There you have it; the World Economic Forum is meeting in Davos and all the billionaire investors and hedge fund managers are talking about is the fact that the Federal Reserve is behind the MARKET’S PARABOLIC surge.

The commentary coming out of there is textbook Wealth Research Group material. I want to show you today why the real question you must be asking yourself is whether you’re a LONG-TERM investor, viewing the world like Warren Buffett does, or if you’re a trader, viewing it like billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones.

The reason I say this is because if you’re an investor, your options are truly limited, few and far between and offer little in the way of extraordinary compounding opportunities, at the moment.

Buffett isn’t sitting on $128B in cash because he has liquidated his portfolio; a long-term investor will NEVER sell equities or ownership stakes in great businesses, bought at good prices, simply because markets are due for a big shakeout.

The way he accumulated this cash position was simply by shying away from making new allocations, whenever profits came in and piled on. I’ve done something similar and now I’ve stuffed the equivalent of 40% of my stock portfolio into the brokerage account as cash.

For every $3 that is invested, $2 is on the sidelines, as liquid cash.

The difference between Berkshire Hathaway’s famed mega-billionaire investor and myself is that I’m also diversifying out of long-term dividend plays and into precious metals, private lending, small-cap stocks and real estate.

The reason is that NO ONE has any idea for how long the Federal Reserve and the other top central banks will continue to POUR trillions of dollars in liquidity into markets.

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

As you can see, the smart money’s holdings represent a HUGE paradox. On the one hand, they are certain the markets are in a bubble, GROSSLY overpriced, compared with fundamentals. On the other hand, as David Tepper, the billionaire hedge fund mogul and owner of the Carolina Panthers says: “I like riding horses, when they’re running.”

The lesson is clear: IF there’s a bubble – BUT there’s also enough time to jump off the train and not take part of the collision – then 2020 is a time to make SENSATIONAL returns.

In the chart above, you can see that highly experienced investors are betting that the FED will not let the economy contract, if they can help it. They will intervene in the Repurchase Operations (Repo), pump liquidity via QE4 and let inflation run hot, if the consumer gets stronger.

Officially and unequivocally, we are investing in a U.S. stock market that is overly bullish, where investors are buying stocks out of a lack of alternatives, where profits signal that corporations can’t extract more earnings (for the time being), and where leverage is already at a record.

The billionaires’ bet is that there is still a 30%-40% return to be made before the peak is reached. Therefore, you need to be asking yourself if you are IN OR OUT and how much you will be risking.

Take a look at this beautiful chart:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

The uptrend is CERTAINLY in place!

As you can see, in 2011, the last mania for gold, the price was 2.3 times above the trend-line support. To replicate that, the price will have to reach $2,750/ounce.

There’s so much more TORQUE to this move and the Davos billionaires are UNUSUALLY bullish. Ray Dalio’s firm leads the bull camp, with Paul Tudor Jones, Guggenheim Fund LONG silver, David Einhorn and Stanley Druckenmiller, among the gold crowd.

The CHIEF reason that they’re now forecasting a breakout into the $1,800’s and above is that they BELIEVE central banks have been cornered into never tightening again.

After the 2013 tantrum and the December 2018 one-month bear market, the verdict is out: Jerome Powell has WEASELED OUT of his promise to normalize rates, and from here on, all the FED can really do is hope the markets don’t become bent out of shape again, forcing more drastic measures.

The FED is like a chef, who’s already poured too much SALT into the soup. Instead of admitting the error, throwing it away and starting anew, he continues experimenting with the recipe, assuring a RECALL.

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

I have so much more to publish this coming Tuesday on the matter, so I want to present two more important charts that prove that stocks are now, same as other assets, a way to be allocated into anything that isn’t cash.

For one, look at the crashing confidence levels of consumers regarding the economy and the jobs market; this is not LOOKING GOOD.

In an economy that is 69%-based on services and consumerism, this is unacceptable.

But it’s not only that; the DISPARITY between valuations and what corporations are worth is HUGE.

Truly, central banks have distorted pricing mechanisms and everyone is in the BLAST RADIUS.

 

 

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Lior Gantz: Stocks are Over-Bought, Time to Hedge With Commodities

Guest Piece by Lior Gantz of Future Money Trends

Every two or three weeks, I see another article published on how Warren Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, is underperforming the S&P 500 and how his cash pile of over $128B is a giant waste – since it could be making his shareholders a fortune, had it been invested in this late-stage bubble surge.

While that’s temporarily true, it is also important to remember that Buffett isn’t a stock investor; he is a business owner who seeks to own portions of businesses, purchasing their equity when the rate of compounding could be uniquely high, holding them forever, not for short periods of time.

For that to occur, for a company that grows at 8%-10% over time and yields a 2%-3% dividend, to compound at a rate of 16%-19% (TWICE as fast as the S&P 500), you have to PAY a fair price or BELOW that. This is what Warren Buffett has succeeded at locating in his 60-yr career – a company that, on average, compounds at 12% will only return 16%-19%, if they buy it CHEAP.

Right now, that’s simply not possible to do. While it is true that if one buys more of the S&P 500 index today, he is almost guaranteed to make money over time and will certainly be able to generate an above-inflation return over a period of 10-15 years, he could also WAIT and make much more.

Sitting on cash isn’t popular or profitable, but if you have REASON TO BELIEVE that stocks are due for a 20%-50% downside crash, Dot.Com-bubble-burst-style or 2008-style, there’s a LEGITIMATE reason to be cashed-up.

Buffett isn’t the only billionaire or the only serially-successful, illuminated investor that is CAUTIONING the average person to stay clear of stocks at the moment. Howard Marks, who wrote the best investment book I’ve ever read, is also publicly warning about the expensive markets.

Here are a number of the charts and data points that they’re watching:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

For one, if this analog continues to mirror the 1999-2000 period, in 3-4 months the markets will PEAK, followed by a MORE THAN 50% crash.

The S&P 500 index is currently trading at the highest gap above its 200-DMA since January 2018, right before it underwent a 10% correction. The S&P 500 is now also running on fumes, since for 2 months and 10 days, it hadn’t SUFFERED a -1% daily loss. This very much resembles the 2018 era, right before the -19.2% bloodbath, when that -1% daily loss streak lasted nearly four months.

Not only is the S&P 500 historically OVERBOUGHT, expensive and risky as hell; the NASDAQ is looking like a perfect bubble about to pop!

Take a look: the Relative Strength Index is as ALARMING as it was right before the Dot.Com burst and before the 2016 and 2018 corrections:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

The index isn’t comprised of penny tech stocks like back then, but the logic of putting new money into the index right now is, in my book, ALMOST non-existent. The risk/reward setup is totally biased against you.

If this is the case, and if all hedge funds, pension funds and self-managed accounts can see the writing on the wall, why are investors still LONG as they’ve ever been?

Before I get to answering that, notice how COMPLACENT buyers are, on top of being greedy – the VIX is sitting at all-time lows:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

The answer is that they’re POSITIVELY CONVINCED that the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, as well as the People’s Bank of China, will do ANYTHING – absolutely ANYTHING – to avoid a recession. In fact, the first Wall Street billionaire has officially stated that the FED might even cut rates to ZERO.

This is not a gold bug that has been predicting doom and gloom for 40 years in a row, like a broken clock, and advising to build shelters in the hills; it’s a mainstream investor who is educated with the history and likelihood of such policies.

As I see it, interest rates under the dollar reserve currency system are NEVER going up again!

If we live in a world where bonds don’t generate any interest, then stocks become much more valuable, automatically; this is their main allure. This is the reason that sellers aren’t taking profits – where would they go for returns?

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

The FED is already STIMULATING in irregular amounts and frequency in the past few months. In essence, it is acting as though it is fighting off a recession, but I remind you that U.S. unemployment rates are at half-century lows, the consumer is enjoying low debt burden and taxes have been cut. Logically, the central bank shouldn’t be embarking on stimulus plans in 2020, but it is.

All I can say is that stocks might be a DEATHTRAP; that is, traditional indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones are seriously ON THE PRECIPICE of something ominous.

In all such previous moments, in 2000 and in 2008, the commodities sector was the biggest winner of the HEDGING strategies that smart money implemented.

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

Bitcoin is already having its BEST START to a calendar year and palladium, the 4th precious metal, is going PARABOLIC as well.

Bottom line, this is the most overbought market in history, which is in this shape – not due to strong fundamentals, but SOLELY thanks to the assumption that central banks will be PERFORMING MIRACLES to keep this from deflating.

It’s your call on how to address these facts and how to make money in a world that has clearly lost all risk aversion. In my case, I will continue to hedge by owning the HIGHEST-QUALITY resource stocks, which have already DOUBLED for us since June 2019.

Expect a very important alert from us this week.

 

That is all.

 

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Not Done Yet: Trump Cooking Up Major Tax Cut Bombshell

Guest Piece by Tom Beck of Portfolio Wealth Global

In 2019, the Federal Reserve’s stimulus packages – which shocked the markets, since they represented a full U-turn in terms of policy, compared to the aggressive tightening in 2018 – were one of the primary reasons that the stock market soared by so much.

On multiple occasions throughout 2019, stocks hit new all-time highs. In the 4th quarter, this really intensified and reached historic rally levels. Stocks were green almost on a daily basis.

The FED’s balance sheet expansion is one of the major catalysts, as well as the pro-growth Phase 1 deal that China and the U.S. signed yesterday for the willingness of buyers to pay higher prices.

The result is that the stock market is now the most expensive ever, as far as price/sales ratio goes:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

This isn’t a good sign for stocks, nor for the economy, in general. To me, it means that these artificially-low interest rates are causing investment firms to purchase stocks, even though they don’t really want to, as well as prompting CFOs to issue large buyback programs over spending funds on machinery, research and growth.

The lack of viable alternatives for the trillions of dollars in managed money is creating a situation in which fund managers are acting out of necessity, not out of pure reasoning.

Warren Buffett, who isn’t under any pressure to make any moves, has patiently amassed an enormous cash position, which will surely serve shareholders when the time comes to buy big.

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

As you can see, the FED is not trigger-shy on its unofficial QE4 plan.

Everyone’s been focused on this monetary easing, but the Trump administration is preparing a tsunami of fiscal stimulus in the form of another round of tax cuts for the middle class and lower-income demographics – and they plan to roll it out in 2020!

This means that, on top of the already $1.1T deficit, tax receipts are set to decline dramatically.

The monstrous economic engine, the boom in the markets, the low unemployment rate, the confidence of consumers; all of these are what Trump is banking on to get re-elected.

It seems Trump is looking to make all voters know, right around the time of elections, that he is ready to take drastic measures to let the free enterprise system work, by reducing taxes.

Obviously, if he is re-elected, he’ll have to focus on balancing the budget, which is a whole other major topic.

This week, the impeachment took another step towards the Senate, when the House voted to advance the two articles of impeachment to trial.

It’s coming and it’s happening during an election year. This is a very unique time in American politics, to say the least.

There are many moving parts here and it will be truly fascinating to see how the public reacts and follows these issues, at the same time as the Phase 1 deal taking effect and with the president’s economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, purposely leaking or teasing, as I see it, a Tax Cut 2.0 later this year.


Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

As you can see, Goldman Sachs views this as a time of very complacent behavior on the part of investors, who are not considering any potential loose ends with Iran, on the potential of complications on the impeachment front or backlash from the rollback of Repurchase Operations by liquidity-addicted investors.

You can truly notice the elevated risk appetite, when you look at the low yields that investors are willing to accept when lending money in the junk bonds segment.

It’s back to 2007 levels:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

It’s clear to see that people are feeling good, in general. Investors have their guards down and their radars turned off for Black Swan scenarios.

This doesn’t mean that anything imminent is coming, but what it does tell you is that most investors are willing to pay top dollar for their stocks.

It’s a good opportunity to scan the portfolio for any companies which may be receiving too much attention, and you can capitalize by taking profits, partially or totally.

Like I said, we live in an era that is dominated by central banks and we must factor that into our thoughts:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

Is this a scary-looking chart or what?

There’s no massive war or terrible crisis happening, yet central banks have put a chokehold on markets. In England, Japan, the European Union, in the states and around the globe, there is too much debt (compared with GDP) on the central bank and government level.

These sorts of things don’t unwind smoothly and with the proposed tax cuts later this year, the budget deficits look grim.

No solutions so far; the bubble intensifies.

 

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Did Trump Just Deliver the Greatest Week of Economic WINNING in U.S. History?

Today’s Campaign Update, Part III
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Right on the heels of the completion of the Phase I Trade Agreement with China, the U.S. Senate overwhelmingly approved the new U.S./Mexico/Canada Agreement (USMCA) on Thursday. The approved bill now goes to President Trump’s desk for his signing, which will probably take place next week.

In a terrific interview on Fox Business today, White House Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro called it “the greatest two days in U.S. trade policy history.” He isn’t wrong.

Below is a clip of the interview – since it has subtitles, I won’t include a transcript here.

In reaction to these two historic trade days, all stock market indexes closed yet again at all-time record highs. That’s a story that cannot be told often enough, but it was far from the only fantastic economic news that the fake, corrupt news media ignored today.

Here are some more extremely positive highlights, as reported at the People’s Pundit Daily:

  • Business Applications gained 3.4% in the 4th quarter of 2019; Projected business formations rose 4.5% compared to the 3rd quarter.
  • The advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for December was $529.6 billion, an increase of 0.3% (±0.4%) from November, and 5.8% (±0.7%) year-over-year.
  • The Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey rose 15 points in January to 17, nearly six times the consensus forecast. Indicators for current activity, new orders, shipments, and employment were all positive and increased from December.
  • Initial jobless claims fell again, once again easily beating “expert” forecasts for the week ending January 11. We’re now at just 204,000 and it’s the monthly jobs report period, meaning the next jobs report could be big.
  • The Housing Market Index (HMI) finds builder confidence started the year very strong, shedding just one point from the month prior, the highest level since 1999.

Again, all of this incredible economic news will be largely ignored by the corrupt national news media as it focuses all of its efforts on supporting the Democrats’ neverending coup d’etat scam. But here’s reality: When President Trump says the U.S. economy is the strongest it has ever been, he isn’t kidding.

God Bless America.

That is all.

 

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is our go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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