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How The U.S. Oil Boom Could Quickly Become A Bust

Today’s Energy Update
(Because Energy Fuels Our Lives)

I have written about this topic before, but it deserves a review at this crucial point in time where the oil markets are concerned. Just half a year after they agreed to implement significant new cutbacks in their crude oil exports, ministers from the so-called OPEC+ countries (OPEC plus non-OPEC nations like Russia, Mexico and Kazakhstan) will likely be asked to cut back even more when – or if – they meet next in July.

I say “if” because, as of this writing, the OPEC+ nations can’t even agree to a specific date on which to hold their proposed July meeting in Vienna . Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said over the weekend that he is “hoping” that the OPEC nations will meet at some point during “the first week in July,” but could not say whether or not the non-OPEC nations would agree to join the meeting.

Minister al-Falih’s remarks only serve to add more uncertainty to a market that has already been plagued by that dynamic in recent weeks, as crude prices have dropped by about 17% over the past month. A series of unanticipated crude inventory builds have led to speculation that the market is currently over-supplied. That speculation was exacerbated late last week, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut is crude demand growth forecast for the second half of 2019 by 100,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd).

The IEA forecast cut comes amid speculation that the ongoing tariff battle between the U.S. and China has resulted in a slowing of Chinese economic growth. Combine that with the ongoing collapse of production from Venezuela, disruptions of supply from OPEC members like Nigeria and Libya, and the series of attacks on crude tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, and you have the most unstable market situation we’ve experienced in recent years.

Read the Rest Here

 

 

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Reports Of OPEC’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

And just like that, everybody stopped talking about the possibility of $30 oil.

Remember those gaudy days, all of two weeks ago, when the price for WTI had dropped to $42 per barrel and fears were rising that the OPEC+ countries had somehow lost all control over the market and prices would continue to fall? Yeah, those were some good times, huh?

Today, January 15, the WTI price has recovered to over $51/bbl, a rise of 25% in two weeks. That did not happen because of suddenly higher global demand, because no such thing has taken place; nor did it happen due to a dramatically lower U.S. rig count, since the DrillingInfo domestic rig counthas dropped by just 15 rigs since January 1; and it didn’t happen due to the much-publicized recent curtailments in Canadian crude production, which have thus far taken about 140,000 barrels of oil per day off of the market.

So, why did the price go right back up the last two weeks after tanking so dramatically towards the end of December? The answer has largely to do with recent actions taken by OPEC+ nations.

Read the Rest Here

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The Week in Review: Broward County Circus Clowns Dominate the News

The Campaign Update Week in Review

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

In Broward County, the Circus Big Top never comes down. –  It will no doubt come as a shock to all of you to find out this morning that Democrat Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes and her gang of vote-stealing circus clowns now claim to have “lost” 2,040 ballots during the course of their hand recount on Saturday.

But don’t worry – Ms. Snipes assures us that these ballots did not just get up and walk out of the building, which is oh, so helpful, right?

“The ballots are in the building. The ballots are in the building. Someone must have put a stack in a tray where they didn’t belong. And we didn’t pick that up. So we continue to count… The ballots are in this building. There would be no other place for them to be.”

Oh. Well, then, no harm no foul.  I mean, since it is Democrats we’re talking about here, they must be given special dispensation and held to far lower standards of behavior than normal human beings. We mustn’t “judge” Brenda Snipes because Brenda Snipes is a symbol. Of what, no one has ever quite explained adequately.

But yeah, 2,040 “missing” ballots, which very conveniently gives Democrat Senate candidate Bill Nelson grounds for filing yet anther lawsuit demanding some Florida judge to prolong the circus even further.  Because of course it does.

Oh, and the net result of Broward County’s 2,040-vote short “recount”?  Republican Senate candidate Rick Scott actually gained more than 700 votes.  *sigh*

Let’s go to the Week in Review:

It was the week that MSNBC’s veteran news faker Andrea Mitchell repeatedly told her tiny audience that Brenda Snipes is a Republican, and never did issue an on-air apology for her fakery. Because being a Democrat activist with a press pass means never having to say you’re sorry.

It was the week that Georgia’s Democrat looooooooser in the gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams, refused to concede her loss to Republican Brian Kemp, claiming she had lost due to “voter suppression” that was racially-motivated.  Her main complaint was a substantial purging of the voter roles that took place under Georgia’s election laws prior to the campaign. She failed to note that Georgia’s current election laws were enacted in the late 1990s by a state legislature dominated by…wait for it…you know what’s coming, don’t you?….sure you do…DEMOCRATS.  Whew.

Ocasio Cortez Watch.:  It was the week that Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, after watching her fellow socialist Irish Bob O’Rourke raise $80 million in mostly non-Texas money in his losing effort to Ted Cruz, was quoted as saying that “All Americans know money in politics is a huge problem, but unfortunately the way that we fix it is by demanding that our incumbents give it up or by running fierce campaigns ourselves.” I don’t really even know what that means, but I swear I did not make it up.  Who could?

It was the week that the CIA produced a report claiming that the murder of radical Islamist reporter Jamal Khashoggi was ordered by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, sent it to President Donald Trump and then leaked it to the New York Times.  Because of course they did.

It was just another week in which no American outside of our fake news media cared who ordered the killing of Jamal Khashoggi.

It was the week that portions of the fake “migrant caravan” began arriving at the border between Texas and Mexico, and officials in Tijuana loudly complained about the migrants’ presence in their community. Heads exploded all over CNN headquarters as fake journalists engaged in a frenzied search for a way of characterizing these Mexican officials as “racists.”

It was the week that French boy President Emmanuel Macron lectured President Trump and America on the evils of “nationalism,” and his public approval rating fell to 25%. There is a lesson in there somewhere, but don’t expect Macron to grasp it.

It was the week that “miniature kidneys” grown by mad scientists in a lab in St. Louis “went rogue”, suddenly sprouting brain and muscle cells, according to officials at the Washington University School of Medicine. No word if the lab director’s last name is Frankenstein, but it seems likely.

It was the week that California Democrat congressman Eric Swalwell announced his support for legislation that would force gun owners to give up any weapon the government classified as an “assault weapon,” and then let it be known that he’d be willing to have the government use nuclear weapons to enforce his desire to disarm the public.  So, just another typical liberal there.

Finally, it was the week that a federal judge issued an injunction ordering the White House to temporarily restore the press badge for CNN performance artist Jim Acosta. In preparation for Acosta’s return, the White House made some minor renovations to the White House Briefing Room:

That isn’t really a thing, but it should be.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Trump Tweets, OPEC Blinks

The Evening Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Tired of all this Winning yet? – If you’ve been irritated by how much it’s cost you lately to fill your car with gasoline, well, cheer up.  President Trump is on the case.

In fact, if you believe the folks at Bloomberg, he’s already caused the Saudis to blink and start working to get up to another 800,000 barrels of oil per day onto the global market in an effort to stabilize the price for crude oil at current or slightly lower levels.  Given that crude is the raw material from which gasoline is refined, a halt to the rapid rise in that commodity’s prices that has taken place in the last year will also stop the rise of the price at the pump.  Crude prices dropped more than $3.00/barrel (roughly 5%) on Friday in response to the Saudi/OPEC announcement of their intention.

So, how did President Trump accomplish all of this?  Optically at least, he did it with a single tweet.  On April 20, the POTUS took to his famous Twitter feed to slam OPEC for the rapidly rising price of gasoline as Americans headed into the summer driving season:

As Bloomberg reports, the Trump tweet produced an immediate reaction among the various OPEC ministers:

OPEC officials were in a meeting at the opulent Ritz-Carlton hotel in Jeddah on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast when Trump tweeted his views and they immediately saw it as a significant intervention.

“We were in the meeting in Jeddah, when we read the tweet,” OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said on Friday. “I think I was prodded by his excellency Khalid Al-Falih that probably there was a need for us to respond,” he said. “We in OPEC always pride ourselves as friends of the United States.”

Given that, unlike his immediate four predecessors in office, President Trump does not hesitate to lever negotiations over seemingly unrelated matters into one another, using all of the influence of the United States to obtain positive results, these OPEC countries also have developed a new-found sense of respect – likely bordering on fear – for expressions of concern coming from the U.S., even when they come from a Presidential tweet.  Perhaps even especially when they come from a Presidential tweet, come to think of it.

Now, probably there was more to this new attitude suddenly being expressed by OPEC countries.  The Bloomberg story cites a recent congressional hearing covering proposed legislation that would attempt to make OPEC and other commodity cartels subject to the U.S. Sherman Anti-Trust Act, and there have likely been negotiations between U.S. and officials from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations taking place behind the scenes since April 20.   But there is no doubt at all the President’s tweet got this ball rolling.

So, when you next go to fill up your car and notice that the price of unleaded has dropped a dime a gallon in response to Friday’s 5% drop in the price for crude oil, you know who to thank.

Isn’t it nice to have a President who’s looking out for our interests instead of the interests of some nebulous “international community?”

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Energy Week Podcast, Episode 4: Why the majors aren’t worried about “Peak Oil”

Energy Week, Episode 4:  Why the majors aren’t worried about “Peak Oil” but the markets are worried about events in Saudi Arabia.

Show Notes:  In this episode, David Blackmon and Ryan Ray discussed how the ongoing upheaval in Saudi Arabia is impacting oil markets, and the impacts it all could have on the planned IPO for Saudi Aramco.  Next, they talked about the reasons why the various “Peak Oil” theories and narratives are wrong, and why the big oil companies aren’t really worried about them.  Finally, David talked about the reasons why he thinks the U.S. industry just might not mess up the current positive oil price situation in 2018.

 

Listen to the Podcast Here

 

Links to articles referenced in Episode 4 of Energy Week:

Power grab in Saudi Arabia threatens oil market stability

 “End Of Oil” Narratives Are Misleading

Peak oil? Majors aren’t buying into the threat from renewables

Oil Pulls Back After U.S. Rig Count Sees Significant Increase

Why U.S. Oil Producers Might Not Mess Up A Good Thing In 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Democrats’ New Plan: Flipping Their Birds Back To Power

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

  • The greatest show on earth has a new home.:  After 146 years of providing continuous entertainment to America, Ringling Brothers Circus held its final show over the weekend.  No worries – the Campaign circus in Washington, DC never ends, so the masses will continue to be entertained whether we like it or not.
  • Cussing their way back into power, two middle fingers at a time.:  At the increasingly profane Democrat Party’s annual convention in California, the 84 year-old outgoing state party chairman, some guy named John Burton, closed out the proceedings by sticking both middle fingers in the air and leading gleeful party members in the chant of “F*** Donald Trump!  F*** Donald Trump!”  The fake national news media largely ignored the incident.  Try to imagine the fake media outrage that would ensue if a state GOP party chair led a GOP convention in a chant of “F*** Barack Obama!”, or “F*** Hillary Clinton!”  Anderson Cooper would be so outraged he might “take a dump on his desk.”
  • Perhaps there is hope for the future after all.:  Several dozen Notre Dame graduates walked out of a commencement address as it was being delivered by Indiana native son Mike Pence, the Vice President of the United States.  To their undying credit, many of the students who remained jeered at the emotionally-stunted children as they left the arena.
  • Hey, Mom!  I’m home!  Probably for good!:  Meanwhile, MarketWatch reports that the percentage of post-college age Millenials living with their parents has reached an all-time high.  All over America today, thousands more are leaving their college towns of choice, loaded down with tens of thousands of dollars of debt they incurred in order to get their degrees in useless majors, to add to that total.  Obviously, dozens of such graduates left South Bend, Indiana yesterday.
  • Meanwhile, in the realm of winning…:  The tone of U.S. foreign policy has certainly changed.  President Donald Trump spent the entire weekend in the Middle East, and didn’t utter a single apology to anyone, didn’t bow to any foreign leader, and neither his wife nor his daughter donned a head scarf.  And rather than employing pop psychology to dummy up reasons to blame Western democracies for being the cause of atrocities committed by Islamic terrorists, President Trump instead implored Arab leaders to “drive them out” of their countries and wipe them off the face of the earth.
  • They also think spaghetti with marinara sauce is exactly the same thing as mac ‘n cheese.:  When President Trump had to bow slightly when a shorter Saudi ruler awarded him a medal of honor, CNN and other fake news media outlets rushed to claim it was exactly, precisely the same thing as Barack Obama’s habit of bowing every time he greeted any Arab leader.  Which is exactly what any thinking person should expect from the fake news media.
  • His sense of self-awareness could use a little work.:  Speaking of Barack Obama, he gave a speech in Milan, Italy on this beliefs about how the all-knowing, all-powerful “Climate Change” is in fact responsible for literally everything bad that ever happens, blaming the entire problem on carbon dioxide (i.e., plant food) created by mankind.  To get to Milan, the former POTUS flew in a private jet, and then drove to the venue from the airport in a 13-car, gasoline-fueled motorcade, thus leaving him with a carbon footprint roughly equal to that created by the Island of Madagascar on a daily basis.

Just another day in Climate Change is a religion America.

That is all.

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In The Oil Patch Radio – OPEC Discussion With Kym Bolado

I recently appeared on In the Oil Patch Radio with host Kym Bolado.  We spent the hour discussing the tension between OPEC and U.S. Shale producers, and the prospects for an extension of the OPEC/Russia agreement to limit exports for the 2nd half of 2017.

Listen to the Interview Here

 

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