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Did Nikki Haley Just Reveal the Leaders of the 25th Amendment Push?

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Tired of all this #WINNING yet? Yeah, neither am I. – For what seems like the 16,000th time during President Donald Trump’s term in office, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at yet another record high on Monday, as the Trump economy just keeps roaring along. Democrats and fake journalists everywhere were doubling up on their depression meds as the markets closed.

When Nikki Haley speaks, people listen. – When people start surveying the GOP landscape post-Trump, whether that comes in January after being removed from the the presidency by the Senate (which is not likely to happen), in January 2021 after a loss in the 2020 election (also not in the cards) or in January 2025 following the completion of his second term in office (bingo!), the survey inevitably lands to the name of Nikki Haley as one of his most likely successors.

Other names also arise, of course: Names like Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo and Ted Cruz, and the less obvious names like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan and even Texas Congressman Dan Crenshaw. Lindsey Graham, with his thrice-weekly appearances on one Fox News evening program or another, is obviously angling for another run at the gig, as are Rand Paul and even Kanye West. But inevitably, the name of Nikki Haley always comes up.

She is, after all, a former successful governor of South Carolina, and a person who, after not really being on board with the Trump Train during the 2016 campaign, created a very high profile for herself as Trump’s very loyal, very aggressive and very outspoken UN Ambassador. Although her record as Governor was decidedly mixed from a conservative perspective, perhaps more than any of Trump’s cabinet-level officials, Haley has stood out as the most aggressive advocate for his international policies.

Thus it is that anything she has to say about the goings-on inside White House during her two-year tenure is given a lot of weight by most Trump supporters. In a Sunday interview with Kelly O’Donnell of CBS, Haley basically accused both then-Chief of Staff John Kelly and then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson of rank insubordination, even though she said they claimed that was not their intent.

Here’s the key outtake:

Haley recounts a closed-door encounter with then-White House Chief of Staff John Kelly and then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson: “Kelly and Tillerson confided in me that when they resisted the president, they weren’t being insubordinate, they were trying to save the country … Tillerson went on to tell me the reason he resisted the president’s decisions was because, if he didn’t, people would die. This was how high the stakes were, he and Kelly told me. We are doing the best we can do to save the country, they said. We need you to work with us and help us do it. This went on for over an hour.”

O’Donnell asked, “You memorialized that conversation? It definitely happened?”

“It absolutely happened,” said Haley. “And instead of saying that to me, they should’ve been saying that to the president, not asking me to join them on their sidebar plan. It should’ve been, ‘Go tell the president what your differences are, and quit if you don’t like what he’s doing.’ But to undermine a president is really a very dangerous thing. And it goes against the Constitution, and it goes against what the American people want. And it was offensive.”

[We asked them to respond. John Kelly tells “Sunday Morning”: “If by resistance and stalling she means putting a staff process in place … to ensure the (president) knew all the pros and cons of what policy decision he might be contemplating so he could make an informed decision, then guilty as charged.”]

Undermining a president from the inside is indeed a very dangerous thing, as Haley notes, and her accusation against Kelly and Tillerson rings true given everything else we know about the two men and their behavior while serving in those positions. Tillerson repeatedly made his personal disdain for the President and his lack of support for Trump policies related to North Korea, China and other parts of the world very clear while serving as SOS, which is the main reason why his tenure in the office was so short. Kelly’s first move after moving into his Chief of Staff role was not to go after the myriad leakers inside the White House, but rather to cut the President off from his most loyal supporters and start to systematically force them out of their jobs.

Rumors have run rampant for more than two years now that both men were willing participants in the mid-2017 plot to dummy up a rationale for removing Trump from office under the 25th Amendment, a plot we know beyond any reasonable doubt that Rod Rosenstein was a part of. If you believe in the whole “where there’s smoke there’s fire” paradigm, it seems extremely likely that those persistent rumors must have some basis in reality.

If Haley’s contention about the approach by Tillerson and Kelly is accurate – and there is little reason to believe that it is not – then it would be consistent with a move that would be made as a part of a larger 25th amendment effort targeting the President. Haley’s contention here, and cryptic use of the term “sidebar plan,” is troubling in the extreme, and Tillerson’s refusal to even respond to it does not reflect well on him. Kelly’s response, which does not in any way address the accusation, may be even worse.

As mentioned earlier, Haley’s interview – promoting her new book – is also a not-so-subtle attempt to keep herself in the public eye, ready to quickly move in the unlikely event of Trump’s actual removal by the Senate. The following passage reveals that part of her personal agenda:

Haley insists she has no immediate plans to run for any office, including the presidency, and as she departed the Trump administration last year she said, “I can promise you what I’ll be doing is campaigning for this one.”

She told O’Donnell, “A year is a long time in politics. It really is a lifetime in politics. And so, I think what’s best for me is take it a year at a time and see what happens.”

With her new book, lucrative speaking engagements, and a seat on the corporate board of Boeing, Nikki Haley acknowledges there are still chapters to be written:  “I’m too young to stop fighting. I’ll always be out there. I’ll always use the power of my voice for what I believe is good.”

So, whether the jumping off point becomes early 2020, early 2021 or the 2024 election campaign, you can be sure that Nikki Haley will be vying to become the face of the GOP in the wake of the Trump presidency. Lining herself up as this President’s most loyal and vocal supporter helps her cause immensely.

That is all.

 

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Trump Moves to Florida, Where Taxes are Low and the Governor’s Approval is Sky-High

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

This is what happens when you have a city run by Marxists. – The President of the United States of America just thumbed his nose at his life-long home state, announcing on Twitter yesterday that he and his family are officially changing their residence to Palm Beach, Florida:

As if to prove the President’s point about having been “treated very badly by the political leaders of both the city and state,” New York’s thug Governor Andrew “Sonny” Cuomo responded by saying, “Good riddance. It’s not like Mr. Trump paid taxes here anyway. He’s all yours, Florida.”

All of which is, of course, abject, smelly horse manure. Trump and his family have paid hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes to New York City and State over the decades under their confiscatory income tax laws, and the economic activity created by his business ventures there have generated billions for the city and state coffers. But, whatever – Cuomo’s a Democrat and, as we saw on the floor of the House yesterday and every other day all over the news media, Democrat politicians lie as surely and as frequently as they draw breath.

In any event, the President’s change of residency is emblematic of the general flight of the wealthy away from New York and its increasingly confiscatory tax regimes that feature top rates of 9% for the state income tax and 4% for the City income tax, along with high rates of property and sales taxes. Contrast that to Florida, where residents pay zero income tax and lower rates of both sales and property taxes. If you have wondered why vast swaths of Florida feature retirement communities occupied mainly by ex-New Yorkers, here’s a clue: It isn’t just about the difference weather.

The Trump address change announcement comes at a very interesting moment from a political standpoint, since we also found out yesterday that GOP Governor Ron DeSantis, a strong supporter of President Trump, is amazingly popular with the people:

Remember: DeSantis prevailed in his 2018 election bid by just 33,000 votes, according to the official count. Of course, we must remember that the Democrat election officials in highly-populated Broward and Palm Beach counties were in full voter fraud mode in that one, so a legal vote count would no doubt have shown a significantly larger victory for DeSantis.

But a 72% public approval rate, with only 17% disapproving? Not even the Florida Democrat vote-stealing machine can steal that many votes. An approval rating like that means that DeSantis is doing a hell of a job in his office, and that is very, very bad news for the Democrat chances to take the presidency away from Trump in 2020.

The Democrat Party has already basically lost the big state of Ohio for the foreseeable future, thanks in large part to its opposition to oil and gas production – which has become a huge part of that state’s economy in the past decade – and the Trump-led renaissance of manufacturing activity there. With Ohio out of the picture, there is no viable scenario under which the 2020 Democrat nominee – regardless of which buffoon or Marxist the Party nominates – can hope to get to 270 electoral votes without winning Florida.

There is no more important asset to a presidential campaign in a key state than having the help of a popular governor, and there is no more popular governor in America right now than Ron DeSantis. It probably wasn’t a major motivating factor behind the Trump decision to change official residency, but that move, combined with DeSantis’s popularity may make Florida too steep a hill for even the Democrat vote fraud machine to climb in 2020.

Cool.

That is all.

 

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time

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Vote Faking in Florida and News Faking at CNN: Some Things Never Change

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

So, how about that Creepy Porn Lawyer, huh? –  When he was representing a porn star and suing President Donald Trump, Michael Avenatti was invited to appear on CNN no fewer than 108 separate times.  Since being arrested Tuesday night for allegedly beating his spouse Tuesday evening, CNN hasn’t found it possible to invite the Creepy Porn Lawyer to appear on its fake news TV platform, nor has it managed to file a report on the event.

That little fat, bald guy who is one of their on-air personalities, and whose name I can never remember and don’t care to look up, did manage to include a few sentences about the arrest in his newsletter which is read only by demented rich white women in Manhattan’s Upper East Side, but other than that, radio silence from the news fakers at CNN.  Because that is who they are.

But teacher, the dog ate my vote count! – At a press conference on Thursday morning, Broward County elections officials, i.e, vote-stealing frauds, assured the assembled press that they would have their machine recount completed well before the 3:00 p.m. ET deadline.  But then something funny happened:  They discovered that the machine recount had added to Republican Senatorial candidate Rick Scott’s winning margin by more than 1,000 votes.

Guess what happened?  Broward’s machine recount came in 2 minutes after the deadline, which means, after all of this rigmarole, the official vote total will be what Broward originally claimed it was.

Meanwhile, over in Palm Beach County, the vote-stealing Democrat frauds didn’t even bother to really try to turn in their machine recount, and just started their manual recount, which was ordered in the Senate race by Florida’s Secretary of State, early instead.

The net result of this is that Republican Ron DeSantis is the winner in the governor’s race, although that outcome will not be certified by the SoS until next Tuesday.  So get ready for Democrat loser Andrew Gillum, who still refuses to concede, to file some sort of lawsuit in the meantime.

Rick Scott will have to wait until at least Saturday to claim his victory over detestable Bill Nelson, who will probably also file some sort of lawsuit once the hand recount is completed.

We should not expect the Democrats to let this go until they have completely exhausted every legal angle their evil minds can concoct for the simple reason that there is no downside for them in keeping this alive.  When you have 98% of the nation’s news media faking the news on your behalf and doing nothing but reciting the daily talking points you provide to them, there is no price to be paid for doing everything you can to destroy the nation’s system of free elections, which is what the Democrats have been working on doing for the last 18 years now.

So the madness will continue, most likely until the Supreme Court forces it to end.

One America News Network makes a play for Fox’s fleeing audience. – Back to CNN, you should also expect that fake news network to pursue an appeal on its lawsuit against Donald Trump for his revocation of preening performance artist Jim Acosta’s White House press badge should they receive a negative decision at the District Court level.

The idiots now running CNN’s competitor, Fox News, made the decision on Wednesday to jump in on CNN’s side in the case.  This utterly insane and indefensible decision very predictably caused a huge backlash among Fox News fans, many of whom will now be looking for another news channel to serve as their safe haven from the fake news media.

Enter OANN, the news operation that has found a small but dedicated and growing audience since its inception a few years ago. Obviously smelling an opportunity, management at OANN decided to jump into the lawsuit as well, only by filing an amicus brief supporting the White House’s side of the argument.

Here are a couple of extremely correct arguments in OANN’s brief:

“Acosta does not have a protectible First Amendment interest or right in the context of this dispute,” OANN argued, adding that “while this narcissistic approach may serve Plaintiff’s self-interests as entertainers or media figures and the network that profits therefrom, they do not serve the interests of the forum.”

and…

Acosta “has hindered our free press from functioning effectively during White House briefings,” OANN argued in a court filing, calling Acosta’s behavior “disruptive.”

Awesome.  They should establish a GoFundMe account to pay for the legal fees.  If they do, I’m giving.

CNN probably will get a correctly adverse decision here, given that the judge in the case is not an Obama appointee. The judge in fact is a Trump appointee, Timothy J. Kelly, who was confirmed to his current job in the District of Columbia by the U.S. Senate on September 8, 2017. Judges for these cases are assigned based on a random, lottery-type system, and CNN had no doubt prayed the name of an Obama judge would come up in its case, which would have given them a great chance of prevailing. The drawing of a non-Obama judge means the case will be decided on the law rather than the principles of Saul Alinsky and Democrat talking points, so CNN is no doubt already preparing its appeal to the DC Circuit, whose membership is majority Obama/Clinton appointees.

Of course, CNN’s big problem is that, should they pursue their laughable claim to the bitter end, the bitter end will come a year or two from now in front of the U.S. Supreme Court and its 5-4 Constitutionalist majority. The arguments that a) the White House has no right to enforce standards of behavior on preening fake journalists during press events, and b) Jim Acosta somehow has a constitutional right to a White House press badge so he can continue to disrupt those press events as he pursues his performance art career are going to be tough sells to John Roberts and Sam Alito and Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh.

Judge Kelly is expected to issue his decision this morning, so we will know where this is going soon. If he rules in CNN’s favor, then the White House should simply disband the White House press corps, because it would then be in the completely intolerable position of having no authority to enforce any norms of behavior on what is nothing more than a collection of agents for the Democrat Party. That is simply not something that can be allowed to exist within this White House.

But if CNN loses, expect an appeal because, like the Democrats in Florida, there is no downside for this fake news network in doing so. It helps their ratings, and hey, you can’t harm a reputation that’s already been destroyed anyway.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Just Another Day of Democrats Stealing Elections in America

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Why do we have to be this crazy? – Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is “back up and working” according to a relative after taking a fall and breaking three ribs early Thursday morning. That’s good news for the 85 year-old Ginsburg, and something every thinking American should be happy about.

But of course, that’s never the case on Twitter, where some right-wing idiots responded to the news that she was in the hospital with glee over the prospect of yet another Supreme Court nomination for President Donald Trump. C’mon, people.

Meanwhile, left-wing nuts kept the operators and security guards at Ginsburg’s hospital busy by calling and showing up with offers to donate their ribs and even vital organs to keep the octagenarian alive and working. These ghouls believe it is Ginsburg’s solemn duty to remain on the court until 2025, when she would be 92, if necessary in order to deny President Trump the opportunity to name her replacement.

Supreme Court appointments are supposed to be lifetime appointments, not life sentences, folks. And to you right-wing nuts, it really is fine to hope Ginsburg decides to retire soon and enjoy life a little bit in her latter years, but it really isn’t ok to hope she dies.

My goodness.

And just like that, Broward County was suddenly finished “finding” fake ballots. – As news spread yesterday that Democrat officials in Broward and Palm Beach Counties of Florida were up to their old tricks and attempting to steal the U.S. Senate and governor’s races there, Governor Rick Scott – who happens to be the legitimate winner in the Senate race – made the decision to send state law enforcement officials in to clean up the mess.

Miraculously, just minutes after the law enforcement officials had arrived, Broward’s despicably corrupt elections supervisor, Brenda Snipes, suddenly announced she and her evil minions were done counting ballots.

There are still several thousand military and overseas ballots outstanding that have until November 16 to show up and be counted, but with state law enforcement supervising the process and both Scott and Republican Governor-elect Ron DeSantis still holding sizable leads, there is no chance of these two outlaw counties reversing the legitimate decision made by the voters.

Thanks to the likely illegal votes already counted in Broward and Palm Beach, however, both races are now within the .5% margin that triggers automatic recounts under Florida law.  Thus, the nation will be treated to yet another fake news media circus thanks to rampant voter fraud operations by the Democrats in South Florida. These people make Lyndon Johnson and George Parr look like rank amateurs.

Meanwhile, out in Arizona… – Speaking of Democrats trying to steal elections, post-election day counting in Maricopa and Yuma Counties in Arizona miraculously “found” enough votes to change Republican Martha McSally’s 17,000 vote “win” into a 9,000 vote deficit to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema on Thursday as the Republican governor there did nothing to intervene in the process.  But don’t give up hope yet- there are reports that the remaining ballots left to be counted over the next few days are largely from areas that are normally Republican precincts.  Of course, unless state law enforcement is called in to supervise the process, those Republican-leaning areas have a way of turning into Democrat-leaning areas.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

And in Georgia, the peach still hasn’t conceded. – Ultra-leftist Democrat Stacey Abrams, who has lost the governor’s race to Republican Brian Kemp by more than 73,000 votes, still refuses to concede in the hopes that Democrat election officials can follow the lead of Broward County and “find” boxes mysteriously filled with votes overwhelmingly cast in her favor. Unless state officials there intercede, don’t be too surprised if that happens.  These people are soulless ghouls and will do anything to “win.”

Speaking of Lyndon Johnson and George Parr… – By the time the mysterious “Box 13” was “discovered” by election officials in Jim Wells County, Texas (not in Duval County, as is often misstated) to give that 1948 Democrat senate primary race to the man who would go onto become a president, President Harry Truman – himself a Democrat – had sent in FBI agents to begin an investigation at the request of Texas Governor Coke Stevenson, also a Democrat.

While it is probably premature to make any such move related to the shenanigans going on in Arizona and Georgia, the situation with utterly corrupt election officials in Palm Beach, Broward and several other counties in Florida has become so outrageous that it really does seem as if federal oversight would be appropriate. Every election cycle, we end up with a situation in which these Democrat-run counties are in violation of Florida’s law requiring votes to be counted and submitted within 48 hours of the polls having closed on election day. This does not happen in any Republican-run part of the state, or in some Democrat parts of the state, like Miami-Dade County.

Of course, the problem here is that the FBI was itself so utterly corrupted during the Obama years that we can’t be sure federal agents would do anything effective to stop the fraud. In any event, it is crystal clear we simply cannot trust any vote count coming from these Florida counties and many other Democrat-run areas of the country, and that is a blot on the legitimacy of our entire system.

Voter fraud is real, it is rampant, and it is exclusively a Democrat-run monopoly.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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American Political Revolutions Never Come Easy

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

This was never going to be easy. No political revolution ever progresses in a straight line. The American system – the Constitution itself – strongly agitates against rapid, radical political change of any kind.

In the first two years of the Barack Obama Administration, Americans saw rapid, radical political change and rebelled against it, turning the House over to Republicans in 2010 and then the Senate in 2014.  Americans again saw rapid, radical change over the past two years, as President Donald Trump reversed about 90% of the Obama era from the history books, and reacted last night by turning the House back to the Democrats.

This is not only nothing out of the ordinary, it is exactly how the nation’s founders consciously wanted the system to work. No one on either side has to like it, but it is important to recognize this reality of the American system and work to affect change within its confines.

So, just as happened in 2010, we end up with a split decision as the voters basically send a signal to Washington, D.C. to slow down. The country writ large isn’t necessarily opposed to the general direction things have been moving, but just wants to take more time to think about things before they happen.  This isn’t always a productive dynamic within the voting public, but we have no choice but to accept the verdict and move on.

In the House of Representatives, where I was hopeful that the Republicans would be able to retain a small majority, the Democrat gain will end up being around 30 net seats, perhaps a few more.  In the Senate, it’s most likely going to be 55 Republicans vs. 45 Democrats/Commies for the next two years, which is exactly where I had figured we’d end up since January.

The sad part of it all is that we will now get nothing out of the House of Representatives other than hearings and subpoenas and bombastic posturing by clowns like Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff for 24 solid months.  The good part of that is that those clowns and others will no doubt so disgust the voting public with their outrageous behavior that the voters will rebel again in 2020 and turn the House back over to the Republicans.  We can always hope, anyway.

The 55 seat majority in the Senate (which is what it will be whenever someone wakes up and declares McSally and Rosendale the winners in their races) means that Mitch McConnell no longer has to worry about getting Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski’s squish votes on every judicial nominee. And praise the lord, fellow squishes Jeff Flake and Bob Corker will no longer be around because they retired. What a relief that is.

Another blessing is that we Texans won’t have to hear any more nonsense about Beto O’Rourke.  Well, at least until January, that is, when he declares his candidacy for the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination, at which point he becomes the nation’s problem child. But everyone should be grateful to Ted Cruz for at least giving us a two month break.

Speaking of breaks, what is that new noise you are hearing from your radios and television sets this morning? Why, it’s the sound of non-political commercials! Isn’t that a joyful noise? Yes, I hate commercials as much as the next guy, but I have honestly missed them as the commercial breaks have been filled with nothing but negative political ads for the last two months.

In my home state of Texas, Republicans once again won every statewide election – as they have done in every cycle for the past quarter-century – but leaders of the Texas GOP will be waking up this morning with an uneasy feeling. While Governor Greg Abbott and a few other officeholders won their re-elections by the traditional double-digit margins, Cruz only prevailed against his well-funded opponent by 3% and several others, including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, saw their winning edges cut to 5%.

Yes, Irish Bob O’Rourke’s ability to pour $80 million of California/New York money into his race at the top of the ticket had a significant impact in races all the way up and down the ballot. But there is little question that Texas Repubs need to do some real soul-searching and find ways to broaden their appeal, particularly to middle-class suburban women and Hispanics if they want to retain their statewide dominance for the next decade or more.

Some other observations:

  • In conceding his very close loss to Ron DeSantis in Florida’s governor’s race, Democrat Andrew Gillum displayed a high degree of class and dignity that will help sustain him as a force in Florida poltics for years to come. We have not heard the last of this guy.
  • Unfortunately, Democrat Stacey Abrams, the Democrat candidate for Governor in Georgia, can’t summon those same qualities within herself and will keep her state in turmoil despite her obvious defeat.  Sad.
  • Back in Texas, Republican Dan Crenshaw, the Purple Heart veteran who was smeared by the sick people at Saturday Night Live over the weekend, won his race and will serve in the House of Representatives for the next two years.  There is still justice in this world, although you often have to look too hard to find it.
  • It is truly gratifying that Jon Tester, the Democrat slug who smeared Admiral Ronny Jackson, is dying this long, slow political death up there in Montana this morning. Couldn’t happen to a more rotten guy.
  • Nevada is officially a blue state now, and that is frightening. One wonders how long it will take the Democrats to completely screw up the state money printing machine that is Las Vegas. I give it a decade.
  • Scott Walker finally, at long last, lost an election in the blue state of Wisconsin, ending one of the most amazing political success stories of modern times. We haven’t heard the last of Walker.
  • Socialist dimwit Alexandria Ocasio Cortez won her race, and God bless the people of Queens for giving her to us to make fun of for the next two years.
  • Once again, CNN completely outclassed all other TV outlets with its election coverage.  John King is without question, far and away the best election night analyst in the known universe.  While Fox News was having a coffee chat session with a bunch of pundits, King and Wolf Blitzer were taking CNN’s viewers on constant whirlwind, county-by-county, sometimes precinct-by-precinct tours of myriad house, senate and gubernatorial races all over the country.  I won’t turn the channel over to CNN again before 2020, but when Election Night comes around that November, I’ll make an exception.

Finally, as I was wrapping this up, just a few moments ago, President Donald Trump (I never tire of typing those three glorious words) whipped this out to Twitter land:

If you thought the man was going to be intimidated by Speaker San Fran Nan or Bugeyes Adam Schiff, well, think again.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Live Blog: Election Day On Twitter – Data, Media Bias, Fun Stuff

The Campaign Update Election Day Preview Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

[Note:  I will be live-blogging election results on a new thread starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time.]

Check in here throughout the afternoon for further updates.

UPDATE @4:20 CT:

Ok, I’m going to close this one down right here.  Will start this evening’s open thread at 6:00 CT sharp – please join me and offer comments and information as you find it.  Thanks.

 

UPDATE @4:10 CT:

The folks at ZeroHedge.com have a really nice piece on when the polls in every state close and what to watch for when they do…

 

UPDATE @3:55 CT:

Not good news for Dean Heller out in Nevada…

UPDATE @3:10 CT:

Michael Newton with some more good early voting data…

 

UPDATE @2:20 CT: 

Nate Silver’s 538.com weighs in with its final “blue wave” prediction…

It’s fair to note that 538 also gave Hillary Clinton better than a 70% chance of winning the presidency on Election Day 2016.

538 also provides this interesting look-back at previous mid-term outcomes…

 

UPDATE @ 2:00 CT:

Final AZ early voting numbers are in, and they look good for McSally…

Michael Newton, who everyone would do well to follow on Twitter, makes a great point here…

Another tweeter everyone would to well to follow, au ng, has final Early Voting numbers from Florida, and again, they are very positive for the GOP…

 

UPDATE @12:30 CT:

Man, nobody would have ever guessed this would happen.  Oh, wait…

What?  Climate Change is not at the top of everyone’s mind today?  How can this be?

UPDATE @12:22 CT:  Trafalgar with some more final polls…

 

 

Noon, CT:  Let’s start with some key data points that have come across the @GDBlackmon Twitter feed today….

The Republican polling firm Trafalgar Group releases its final Florida poll this morning, and it is glorious if accurate:

Trafalgar was also the last firm to poll the Texas senate race…

Man, if this TargetSmart bunch has an accurate means of estimating early vote turnout, this is going to be an epic Red Wave.  TargetSmart, by the way, is a Democrat polling firm…

In Phoenix, Republicans are doing better in every city ward than they did in 2016. Bad news for nutjob Democrat Kyrsten Sinema…

This just happened in the world of media bias…

Ok, this is funny.  And sadly accurate…

 

That is all, for now.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Vote Republican. It’s Your Civic Duty.

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Hey!  There’s an election tomorrow!  I will be live-blogging it here starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time.  Please join me in the comments section for tons of fun as the results either make me look like the smartest guy on the planet or a damn fool.  Could go either way.

Get out and vote for Republicans. – If you haven’t already done so, get your sorry butt out to the polls tomorrow and vote Republican.  Period.  There is nothing to think about here.  Just find that “Straight Republican” button and hit it. Oh, and then wait and watch to make sure that your voting machine then populates the votes properly, because we have had reports of things not working properly (imagine that).

And yes, vote the straight Republican ticket, regardless of where you live.  I’m in Texas, as most of you know by now, and this is the easiest decision we’ve ever had.  I’m a ticket-splitter from way back, but way back was when there were still decent people running for office as Democrats.  No more.

Anyone who buys into today’s Democrat agenda, which includes stuff like Antifa, assaulting Trump supporters in public places, rampant voter fraud, single-payer healthcare, raising your taxes and open borders, is not a decent person.  Sorry, they just aren’t.  They might be good fathers, loving mothers and otherwise good citizens, but if they support the Democrat agenda, they can no longer be described as decent human beings. That’s what 25 years of running the party on the principles of Saul Alinsky has done for them.

If you have a problem with any Republican candidate, just remember that his or her opponent is a Democrat, and your problem becomes no problem at all. Democrats are not allowed anymore to be independent operators. A guy like Irish Bob O’Rourke is promising to go to Washington and buck the system, becoming an “independent voice” for Texans.

The truth is that Irish Bob would become the de facto third senator from New York as Chuck Schumer leads him around by the nose, telling him not only how to vote on every issue, but also which approved talking points to recite during his appearances on CNN and MSNBC. Hell, if you’re Joe Manchin, Schumer even dictates which lines at the State of the Union speech you can stand and applaud.  Manchin’s a three-term incumbent – you think a rookie from Texas is going to be treated any better?

The same goes for Colin Allred, the guy running against GOP incumbent congressman Pete Sessions.  Allred is a very good-looking and articulate guy, promising to go to Washington and challenge San Fran Nan at every turn on behalf of Texans. The truth is that San Fran Nan would have him wrapped around her crooked little finger about 5 minutes after he lands at Reagan National Airport.  Because Democrats march in lockstep on every issue. Period.

So, if you’re thinking about voting for O’Rourke or Allred, think again.  They’re Democrats.  If you’re thinking of voting for the Democrat (whomever it is) running against George P. Bush for Texas Land Commissioner because you don’t like Bush’s plan to turn the Alamo and surrounding grounds into a glorified amusement park, well, join the crowd.  But do you think the Democrat has a better idea?  Seriously?  What would that be – to turn it over to the federal Department of the Interior for safe keeping?

C’mon, man.  Be serious.

In the past two years, America has embarked on an almost unprecedented period of relative peace in the world and economic growth. The Trump Administration has reasserted American authority at the United Nations, NATO and all the various G-7, G-20 and whatever other G-something or other summits there are these days. The horrendous turmoil in the Middle East that resulted from the Obama-sanctioned “Arab Spring” has been greatly calmed and ISIS has been largely destroyed.

The Crazy Little Fat Guy over in North Korea hasn’t fired a missile in hostility in many months, and his main interactions with the U.S. these days involve requesting more meetings with the Secretary of State and other U.S. representatives to get approval for his next step toward decommissioning his country’s nuclear capabilities.

Russia, which invaded Crimea, Syria and the Ukraine during the Obama years, hasn’t invaded anyone since January 20, 2017.  This is not a coincidence.  China has been helpful with the Trump approach to North Korea, and now appears ready to make a real trade deal after five months of escalating “trade war” with the United States has begun to damage its economy.

So, after you’ve had a couple of cups of coffee and showered tomorrow morning (yes, please shower for everyone’s sake), go vote.  For Republicans.  Straight ticket.  It’s not just the right idea, it’s your duty if you love this country.  It’s the easiest decision you’ve ever had.

And now, for some final predictions:

The Republicans will gain a net 4 senate seats, defeating McCaskill in Missouri, Heitcamp in North Dakota, and some combination of Tester in Montana, Manchin in West Virginia, Nelson in Florida and Donnelly in Indiana.  They will lose some combination of Heller in Nevada or McSally in Arizona.  The net of all of that will be a 4-seat gain and an overall 55-seat majority for the next two years.

In the House, the Republicans hold onto their advantage, losing a net 15 seats.

That’s where I’ve been since January, and I see no reason to change now.

In some specific high-profile races:

Irish Bob “Beto” O’Rourke’s $80 million campaign will buy him 45% of the vote in his race against Ted Cruz.  Four years ago, $30 million got Wendy Davis 39% of the vote.  So, if the Democrats can throw about $125 million behind some chosen golden child in 2022, they might actually win a race in Texas.

But this year, Republicans will win every statewide election in Texas, as they have done in every statewide election cycle since 1994.

Republican Brian Kemp will win 52% of the vote in the Georgia governor’s race, just enough to avoid a runoff there.

In Florida, the early voting is tilting very nicely for the Republicans, who always have a significant voting edge on Election Day.  Based on that, I think Ron DeSantis will eke out a very narrow win in the governor’s race over Democrat/socialist Andrew Gillum there.

Again, I’m either going to look like a genius or a damn fool come Wednesday morning, but we’ll have fun tomorrow night regardless.
That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

John McCain: Bitter ’til the Bitter End, and Even Beyond

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

A sad and bitter man ’til the sad and bitter end.  And beyond, apparently. – John McCain always wore his bitterness on his sleeve, generating and holding grudges like no one else in the nation’s capital.  Given his experiences during the Vietnam conflict, it was easy to see why that was the case, and I had planned to make no mention of this reality of McCain’s personality in an effort to avoid speaking ill of the dead.

But then, on a long drive Wednesday afternoon, a radio commentator reported the news that McCain and his family have chosen to ban his extremely loyal 2008 running mate, Sarah Palin, from attending the dead Senator’s funeral.  Thus does McCain reach out from whatever lies on the other side of this life in a pitiful and petty effort to settle one final grudge.

The wonder is why there was any grudge to begin with.  Sarah Palin was nothing but the loyal soldier to McCain, both throughout their failed campaign together and in the decade that has passed since.  She never had anything but glowing praise for the man, and issued this statement last Saturday upon learning of his passing:

Gracious, glowing, praising the man into whose moribund campaign she injected a little life, though not enough to get him across the finish line in the face of a horrifically negative slander campaign mounted against them both by the Democrats and the fake national news media.  McCain was initially gracious towards Palin after the defeat, but over the years became convinced his loss was somehow her fault.  Earlier this year he told a fawning fake reporter that choosing Palin as his running mate was a mistake, speculating that Joe Lieberman, a Democrat, would have made a better choice.  Yeah, sure – all those Republican delegates at the convention would have been just thrilled with the prospect of having to vote against all of their core beliefs so their nominee could have his coveted “collegiality” on the ticket.

Thus, McCain reaches out one final time to settle what was in his warped mind an old score.  It is easy to understand his feelings about President Trump; this, on the other hand, is purely mean-spirited and petty.

So let’s all pray that John McCain can Rest In Peace in the next life since he so obviously never could in this one.

Democrat/Media Playbook, Page 1: Play the race card. – GOP Florida gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis hadn’t even gotten his general election campaign off the ground before the fake news media and rancid Democrats started throwing their playbook at him.  After he used the common phrase “monkey this up” during an interview Wednesday morning on Fox News, the Democrat/Media axis of propaganda pounced, claiming the term is “racist” since the Democrat nominee, Andrew Gillum, happens to be an African American.

Of course, the Democrats and media are lying here, but hey, that’s what they do.  DeSantis, referring to the undisputed fact that Gillum is an admitted “Democrat Socialist”, said the following:

“We’ve got to work hard to make sure that we continue Florida going in a good direction. The last thing we need to do is to monkey this up by trying to embrace a socialist agenda with huge tax increases and bankrupting the state.”  A pretty reasonable statement that refers to Gillum’s admitted political beliefs, and is obviously not directed in any way at his skin color.

But skin color is constantly at the top of every leftist Democrat’s mind, and so DeSantis’s use of the word “monkey” had become a media-generated fake controversy before he was able to get back into his car following the interview.  I don’t know about anyone else, but if I were a Black man I think I’d be highly offended that every Democrat and fake journalist in America equates me with a monkey.  Because that is what this really is all about.

CNN:  The King of Fake News and damn proud of it. – Management at CNN, the fakest fakety-fake #fakenews outlet on the face of the earth, continued to cling to its latest completely fake story for a third day after it was revealed to be fake.  The obvious hope at CNN is that they can just ride out the storm until the rest of the fake news media forgets about the story – and in reality, most of the rest of the fake news media never paid any attention to it in the first place.

What CNN is going through right now is the direct result of relying on anything Lanny Davis has to say as being true.  Lanny Davis has made a fabulous living for the last 25 years being a professional liar on television.  He has lied for a living on behalf of a seemingly endless array of skunks and snakes, starting with Bill and Hillary Clinton and now doing it for ex-Trump lawyer Michael Cohen.

CNN stupidly aired a “breaking news” story, authored in part by shameless hack Carl Bernstein, claiming that “multiple sources” had told them that President Trump knew in advance about the infamous “Trump Tower meeting” his son and a couple of campaign officials conducted with some Russians in October 2016.  Davis was one of those “multiple sources,” and it is very likely that the other “source” is Cohen himself.

Early this week, Davis admitted on live television that he had lied to Bernstein, and that neither he nor Cohen have any actual knowledge about the story’s allegation against the President.  Any decent, real “news” outlet, when caught so blatantly with its pants down around its figurative ankles, would simply retract the story and ban the source that burned it from its airwaves.  But this is CNN, where the professional liar Davis has been a “source” for all manner of fake stories for a quarter of a century.  When you’re into news fakery as deeply as CNN is, you don’t retract and apologize for the fake story, you just keep lying and standing by your fake source and fake reporters.

By the way, CNN’s ratings for the first two weeks of August were down another 12% from July, as viewers abandon the fake news network in droves for Fox or MSNBC, or perhaps even for a little peace in their lives.  CNN’s prime time lineup is now regularly beaten in the ratings by re-runs of “American Pickers” and “Counting Cars” on the History Channel.  If this trend continues, pretty soon the only viewers CNN will have left are the captive audiences of beaten down travelers in our nation’s airports.

Just another day in fake news media America.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Our Public Opinion Polls are Still as Awful as They Were in 2016

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Why we should all stop paying attention to the polls. – In Florida’s GOP primaries, numerous polling groups conducted polls of the governor’s race over the past few months. The RealClearPolitics average of all the most recent polls pegged the race at a 6.7% advantage for Ron DeSantis, who was endorsed by President Trump.

The final result? DeSantis wins by a whopping 20% of the vote.  None of the polls taken in the race had DeSantis pulling more than 41% of the overall vote.  He actually won 56%.

In addition to all of that, barely two months ago, a poll commissioned by Fox News showed DeSantis trailing the other major candidate in the race, Adam Putnam, by 15%.  So the people at Fox are trying to convince us that this race turned around by 37 points in a little over 60 days.  Sure it did.

Stop worrying about polls. They are no better this year than they were in 2016. Most of them are conducted using awful methodologies and absurd samples for the purposes of a) creating fake news stories; b) generating clicks to the web pages of the entities sponsoring or conducting the poll; and c) attempting to influence public opinion.

The race between incumbent Senator Ted Cruz and Democrat challenger Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke in Texas is another great example of why many of these polls really don’t give us a shred of reliable information.  A recent poll in that race, sponsored by the Texas Lyceum, showed the contest actually in almost a dead heat, with Cruz polling 41% support to O’Rourke’s 39%.

Wow.  Shocker, right?  I mean, Texas is a state in which no Democrat has actually won a statewide election in a quarter of a century, a state won pretty easily by Donald Trump in 2016, one in which Democrat statewide candidates had trouble finishing within 20% of their GOP opponents in the last statewide elections in 2014.  So a win by O’Rourke, a man of Irish descent who is attempting to convince Texas’s Hispanic voters that he is one of them with his hip nickname, and Millenials that he is one of them by doing lots of cursing in his campaign events, would be a huge upset.

The Lyceum poll’s snapshot of a dead heat race appeared to gain some support with last week’s release of a poll from Emerson College showing the Cruz lead down to just 1%, at 39-38.  Again, wow, if only it were true.

The problems with these polls are numerous, however.  The Lyceum poll’s sample is fairly large at 1,178, but 27% of those polled aren’t registered to vote, and just 27% of respondents said they were “extremely interested” in the campaign.  All of which means this poll tells us pretty much nothing at all about what might actually happen at the polling places in Texas in November.

But it gets worse.  It turns out that the people who conducted this poll chose to pretend that Texas – a state in which no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994 – is a dead even state in terms of party identification, choosing to question 39% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 22% Independents.  Now, based on past voting patterns, these percentages should really look more like 44% Republican, 30% Democrat and 26% Independent.  Something close to that, anyway.

All other aspects of this poll being equal, the choosing of a sample truly representative of the Texas adult population would probably have ended up showing Cruz with a lead of 8-10%.  Focusing the sample on likely voters most likely would have increased Cruz’s polling margin, given the historic disparity in party voter turnout patterns in Texas in recent elections.

The Emerson College poll is equally problematic.  While it does focus on registered voters, the sample size consists of just 550 people in a state with a wildly diverse population of 25 million or so. The number of different ethnic groups living in the city of Houston alone probably exceeds the total sample surveyed by this poll.

To make matters worse, party identification breakdown for the poll is impossible to discover.  It may be out there somewhere, but if so, it is extremely well-hidden.  One distressing result of the hilariously inaccurate polling outcomes of the 2016 elections has been a trend of these polling entities being reluctant to publish full, accurate details about the nature of their samples.

Increasingly, polling entities like Emerson do their best to avoid revealing key factors like party ID breakouts to the public.  This is the case with another recent poll in the Cruz/O’Rourke race – the NBC/Marist poll – which shows Cruz’s lead at 4%, but doesn’t really inform us how it got there.

What does that tell us?  It tells us that these polling companies, universities and sponsoring media outlets have little, if any, confidence in their polling methods in today’s rapidly changing society.  Rather than simply be honest and clearly inform the public of that reality, they hide aspects of their methodologies in order to minimize criticism.

Is the race between Cruz and O’Rourke fairly close at this point, with Cruz’s lead at least within single digits?  Yes, probably.  Irish Beto has thus far benefitted from the love affair he’s engaged in with the Texas and national news media, and the fact that most of the Texas population has little idea who he is or knowledge of his radical leftist policy views.  A fear of ending that knowledge gap is probably why Mr. Beto suddenly backed out of his scheduled debate with Sen. Cruz this Friday.  No use spilling those troublesome beans to the voters before he absolutely has to.

But is this a 1 or 2 point race, as these two highly problematic polls attempt to indicate?  Not bloody likely.  What these two polls really tell us is the same thing the disparity between the polls and the actual outcome of the race in Florida tells us:  We should all stop paying attention to these polls.

Just another day in the public opinion polls are a sad joke America.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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