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Sorry Nancy, Your Coveted “Blue Wave” Just Isn’t Building

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Democrats – if they didn’t exist, no one in their right mind would dream of making them up. – In an interview on Monday, San Fran Nan said she agrees that, where the Democrats are concerned, “it’s time for new blood and we should move on.”  That’s the good part.  But in her next breath, she promised to continuing clinging to power so long as Donald Trump is President: “to have no woman at the table and to have the Affordable Care Act at risk, I said, ‘As long as he’s here, I’m here.”

Republicans everywhere popped open the champagne at the prospect of continuing to have the past and possibly future Speaker of the House as fodder for their campaign ads.

Hey, if he won’t get down into the ’30s on his own, we’ll just put him there. – The fake news hacks at CNN loudly trumpeted their new “poll” on Monday, a “poll” which purports to show President Trump’s public approval rating at just 38%.  That all looks pretty disturbing for the President until you look into the bowels of how the “poll” was conducted and realize that it included just 25% Republicans in its sample of self-described “registered voters.”

Had the poll instead included around 34-35% Republicans, which is what it should have done, its result most likely would have shown the President’s approval at about 42-43%, which is pretty much where other polls of registered voters are putting it these days.  Meanwhile, the most accurate poll during 2016, Rassmussen, which is also the only poll taking the time and effort to survey “likely” voters, pegs Mr. Trump’s approval rating at 48%.

Thus, what we clearly have with the CNN poll was yet another example of a fake news organization dummying up some more fake news on what was otherwise a fairly slow news day.  Sadly typical.

But CNN’s not alone.  We saw ABC and the Washington Post issue a similarly faked-up poll on the generic congressional preference question at the end of August.  This poll pretended to find that the Democrats suddenly had a 14-point lead among registered voters on that question.  Really?  Can that be right?

Well, given that other recent polls of registered voters (Economist/Yougov and Reuters/Ipsos) pegged the Democrat edge at 9 and 5 points, probably not.  Then when you consider that the two recent polls on this question that look at “likely voters” (Rasmussen and Grinnell/Selzer) show the Democrat edge barely present at 4 and 2 points, the ABC/WaPo poll becomes a clear outlier.

A real polling organization, when its “sample” (assuming there really was a sample) produces a result so clearly outside of any notion of reasonableness, might be expected to take a second look at things before rushing to publish.  But ABC/WaPo and CNN are not real polling organizations – they are ostensibly “news” organizations, and they unfortunately seem to produce these polls in an effort to manufacture news, not to truly inform the public.

You may remember that ABC/WaPo are also the same two media organizations that dummied up a poll just two weeks prior to Election Day 2016 that pretended to show Hillary Clinton holding a 13-point lead over Donald Trump.  When even the Nate Silvers and New York Times‘s of the world guffawed at that silly result, I predicted what its new margin would be each and every day over the next ten days, and got it on the nose every day but one as the fake poll’s margin very predictably narrowed to within its margin of error the Friday before the votes were cast.  I was able to do that because the poll’s results were pretty clearly tailored to make news, not to accurately gauge the state of the race.

The thing about polls these days is that the legitimate polling organizations continue to struggle with how to actually obtain a decent sample that really is reflective of society at large.  Some of these groups, like Rasmussen, appear to have a pretty good handle on things, and some of them keep monkeying around with their methodologies.  The one disturbing generic congressional ballot poll by a legitimate organization recently is the one by Emerson College last week that arrived at a 13-point edge for the Democrats.

Emerson describes its methodology as follows:

“The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, party affiliation, region and mode. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=500) and an online panel provided by Survey Monkey (n=500).”

Who knows if that convoluted method renders a result that can be trusted?  Then again, after the absurdity of the polling results in 2016, it’s an open question whether any of these poll results really produce anything worth reading, other than providing, on average, some general trend.

Right now, the trends are a) President Trump’s public approval rating is right where it has been throughout this entire year, and b) the Democrats have a modest edge in the generic ballot question, but not a big enough edge that would produce their much-coveted “blue wave” come November.

The Campaign Update told you way back in December that there would be no “blue wave” in this election, and nothing that has happened since that time has changed that general outlook.  Lots can happen in the 8 weeks remaining until Election Day, but the reality is that public attitudes appear to be pretty much set.

All of which means that we should expect the Republicans to pick up somewhere between 2-5 net seats in the U.S. Senate, and the Democrats to gain seats in the House, but not enough to saddle the nation with San Fran Nan as Speaker of the House one more time.

Just another day in just ignore all the fake polls America.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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This is America, Where Fake News Reporting Now Wins Pulitzers

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Tired of all this Winning yet?  – Heads had to be exploding all over the fake mainstream news media on Monday, as President Trump hit 51% approval in the Rasmussen Survey and several other polls showed the President’s approval ticking upwards.  These results have to be maddening to all the fake reporters and editors who wake up every day intent on slanting their reporting against the current POTUS in their tireless efforts to reverse the outcome of the 2016 national election.

Even worse for the fake media and its masters at the Democrat National Committee, the new ABC/Washington Post survey shows the Democrat edge in the generic congressional preference category closing to just 4 percent, at 47/43.  This poll had that margin at 12 points in January.  Hey, maybe Robert Mueller’s assault on the right to attorney client privilege and the constitutional protection against unreasonable search and seizure isn’t such a great idea for the Democrats after all?  Just a thought.

Speaking of Mueller and his efforts to destroy every shred of attorney/client privilege in his desperation to dig up dirt on the President, the assault on former Trump attorney Michael Cohen made big news when the federal judge in the case, one Kimba Wood, forced the public revelation of Mr. Cohen’s three most recent clients, and it turned out that one of those clients happened to be Fox News and radio talk show host Sean Hannity.   The fake journalist Twitter-verse erupted with glee at the judge-ordered doxing of Hannity, who they all hate.  Hannity, for his part, said that it’s no big deal, and that he had never paid Cohen for any services, though if he had it is hard to see why that would be anyone’s business.

In any event, the actual big news in all of this to anyone who is not a fake reporter or fake editor is the name of that judge – Kimba Wood.  Those of us who, like me, are old enough to remember the early years of the Clinton Administration will remember that Judge Wood was Hillary Clinton’s hand-picked favorite to become Bill Clinton’s first nominee for Attorney General.  We will also remember that Ms. Wood’s potential nomination for the job fell apart when it was revealed that a) she had trained to be a Playboy bunny while in college, and b) she had once employed an illegal alien as a nanny and failed to properly report the wages she paid the nanny to the IRS.

To make things even more outrageous, it turns out that Judge Wood actually officiated at the 2013 wedding ceremony of the evil funder of all sorts of radical efforts to destroy American society, George Soros.

Yes, that Kimba Wood, the long-time buddy of Hillary Clinton and George Soros, is now presiding over the Michael Cohen case.  And all the fake reporters in your fake national news media look at that amazing situation and think “hey, that’s all perfectly normal.  Nothing to report there.”  Holy cow.

In other fake news, our drama queen former FBI Director can’t compete with a porn star for TV ratings.  James Comey’s Sunday night interview on ABC with a former Clinton toady drew only a little over 8 million viewers.  This compares to the 24 million who tuned in to see porn star Stormy Daniels get the softball treatment from Gloria Vanderbilt’s son on CBS.  Which proves, I guess, that in today’s America, a 6’8″ drama queen is only worth a third of the value of a porn star.  Or maybe Anderson Cooper is just that much better looking than George Stephanopoulous.

Finally, in the ultimate expression of the new legitimacy of fake news, the fake staffs at the New York Times and the Washington Post shared the Pulitzer Prize (because, hey, these are mostly Millennials and thus, everyone must go home with a trophy) in the “National Reporting” category for their coverage of “Russian meddling in the 2016 elections.”  Think about this for second:  Both the Times and the Post have been forced to rescind or massively correct dozens of fake stories about what is mostly a fantasy made up out of whole cloth by the Clinton campaign in the wake of its stinging defeat by Donald Trump.

It is fake news at its finest, a media-supported fantasy play that has a completely out-of-control Special Counsel running around the country destroying some of our most crucial constitutional protections, and the Pulitzer Committee is celebrating the two fake newspapers that have played the biggest roles in helping to perpetuate it.  If you’re an American citizen, the members of the Pulitzer Committee just gave you the finger.

Just another day in everything is fake in today’s America.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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