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Why Joe Biden Won’t be the Nominee

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

People keep telling me that I’m really going out on a limb with my all-but-guarantee that Joe Biden will not be the Democrat nominee in 2020. The truth is that that is the safest prediction I’ve made about this race.

The history of presidential politics is littered with the rotting carcasses of early favorites in contested presidential nominating battles who ended up being left behind when the actual convention rolled around.

Remember 1972 Democrat nominee Edmund Muskie? Yeah, neither do I. Well, I sort of remember Edmund Muskie, who was the party establishment’s favorite as the campaign season began, but Democrat voter base, radicalized by the hippie movement moving into adulthood and the early reports of the Watergate scandal, were looking for a much more radical alternative that year. Ultimately, the party presented closet Marxist George McGovern to the country, and an electoral slaughter of epic proportions ensued, despite the media’s best efforts to destroy Richard Nixon.

Sound familiar?

What about 1976 Democrat nominee Morris Udall, the early polling leader and establishment favorite? Or nominee Birch Bayh, who won the Iowa Caucuses? Remember them? No? Well, it turned out that Democrat voters that year weren’t in the mood to nominate some old DC swamp creature, which you are going to soon discover is a very common theme in this essay. Instead, they wanted a fresh face, and ended up saddling the country with Jimmy Carter, who at the time was the freshest face we’d ever seen.

Yeah, that didn’t work out well, did it?

Remember when early polls told us that Ted Kennedy was going to beat Carter for the nomination in 1980 after Carter’s disastrous term in office? Remember when that didn’t happen, either?

Guess who the early polling leader for the nomination in the 1984 race was? Remember how Gary Hart won that year’s nomination? No? Neither does anyone else. That year, the now-ageing hippies passed the party’s baton to old swamp  creature Walter Mondale, and the result was the largest electoral landslide loss in American history.

Ok, what about 1988 Democrat nominee Mario Cuomo? Remember him? After a raft of polls in mid-1987 showed Cuomo would be a big leader in the nominating battle, party leaders tried to recruit him to get into the race. But Cuomo, knowing the scrutiny that would bring into his shady background, refused to take up the baton.

Well, what about 1988 nominee Gary Hart, who again led all the polls once Cuomo refused to run? No? Hart might actually have prevailed in the race that year had he not dared the media to “follow me around” after allegations arose that he was having an affair. For once, the media actually did its job where a Democrat was concerned, and photos of Hart cavorting on a boat with Donna Rice were soon made public. So, we ended up with Michael Dukakis and another electoral landslide instead.

Then there’s 1992 Democrat nominee Paul Tsongas, or 1992 Democrat nominee Jerry Brown, or 1992 Democrat nominee Bob Kerrey, all of whom were leaders in early polling in the race. But then this guy Bill Clinton played the saxophone on the Johnny Carson Show, and shallow Democrat voters had their man!

In 2000, it was Al Gore all the way as the Democrat voter longed to give the country a third Clinton term. That didn’t happen, either.

Then there’s 2004 Democrat nominee John Edwards. Yet another early polling leader flame-out due to Gary Hart-like circumstances. He was succeeded by 2004 Democrat nominee Howard Dean, who surged into a polling lead late in 2003. But he came up a crapper with a third-place finish in Iowa, and the nomination ended up going to the disastrous John Kerry.

Finally, I give you 2008 Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton, the overwhelming leader in every early poll in the race, and the woman who eventually…flamed completely out after Barack Hussein Obama his own self caught fire.

Democrat voters are fickle, folks. In every cycle, the party’s leaders always try to push a favorite candidate, and that favored candidate is usually rejected. The lone exceptions to this dynamic in modern times have been Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, all loooooooooosers. In 2016, the party’s leaders went so far as to actually rig the primaries in Clinton’s favor, and Obama and his evil minions did everything they could to rig the general election in her favor, and she still lost.

The Fainting Felon’s attempt to saddle the nation with a third Obama term was a miserable failure, and now here is Joe Biden, trying to execute the exact same failed strategy four years later. But Biden’s trying to do it before a party voter base that has been radicalized to the point of insanity, and the primary voting is going to be dominated by the most radicalized among them.

Every nominating battle has its own unique set of dynamics, of course, and the party bosses have set the process up this time to encourage a hung convention at which they will ultimately get to choose the nominee. Maybe that will work out for them, but if it does, history tells us that they will choose a loser.

But back to the point about Joe Biden: History also tells us that the early leader in the polls almost never ends up winning the nomination. I’m not out on a limb at all on that one, and I think I’ll stick to it.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

About That Biden “Surge” in the Polls…It Isn’t Happening

Today’s Campaign Update, Part II
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

When a “surge” is actually a durge. – As is always the case with the DC punditry these days, they’re wrong.

Over the past week, poll-watching pundits like Karl Rove and pretty much all the others have been marveling about Joe Biden’s “pop” or “surge” or whatever word you want to put to it – in the polls. Talking about him in a way that is clearly designed to make you think he is a virtual shoe-in to be the Democrat nominee in 2020, and a real, strong challenger to the re-election of President Donald Trump. The only problem with all of this is that it just isn’t happening. Take a look at this:

 

See that green line? That’s Joe Biden. It’s his average in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. See which way it has been heading over the past 10 days? Clue: it isn’t up. It isn’t a “pop.” It’s not a “surge.”

What that line actually represents is the inevitable: Biden’s precipitous plunge back earthwards as all the people in the Democrat voter base get a good gander at him and listen to the idiocy that pops out of his mouth and remember exactly who Joe Biden really is.

Who Joe Biden is, is a clown. A human gaffe machine. A guy who has no respect for the personal space of women and children. A guy who can’t keep his creepy hands to himself at public events. A guy who has been mucking around in the DC Swamp for 46 years; a guy who has a record as long as your arm and none of it is good.

That’s who Joe Biden is.

And so, the numbers plunge, and they will keep plunging until that gap between his green line and one of the other candidates’ line is gone. I figure that will happen along about October 1 or so, maybe sooner depending on how Biden performs in the early debates.

How fast is Biden falling? Good question. See that poll by The Hill, where Biden’s sitting at 33? Two weeks ago, right after his formal campaign kickoff, he was sitting at 46. That’s the most severe drop in any of them thus far, mainly because that 46 number is the highest Biden has achieved in any of the myriad polls.

In any event, you are best advised not to believe the media buzz that Biden’s the most likely Democrat nominee, for a variety of reasons.

His inherent goofiness as a human being is just one of them. His advanced age, which shows more and more every day, is another. But the main reason is the fact that the Democrats are awarding delegates in their primaries on a modified-proportional basis in all states this time, rather than a winner-take-all basis.

Any candidate winning at least 15% of the vote in a state primary will receive a share of the delegates. If only one candidate reaches that level, then it becomes winner-take-all. If no candidates receive 15% – which is entirely possible in some states with such a large field – then “the minimum to receive delegates will be 50% of the vote received by the front-runner.  For example, if candidate A wins with 10% of the vote, delegates will be allocated proportionately to anyone that receives 5% or more.”

With 25 candidates in the race and counting, this system is setting up a free-for-all in which it is very likely that the Democrats will show up to their national convention next summer without a clear nominee, and maybe without any candidate even coming close to that threshold.

What does that mean? A brokered convention, at which you could even end up with a nominee who did not run in the primaries.

Hey, which prominent, extremely ambitious Democrats are not announced candidates, but are rumored to be working towards that exact possibility as we speak?

What do you think Hillary Clinton is doing with her spare time?

I’m just sayin’.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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