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Chronicling the Battle Between Oxy and Chevron for Anadarko

Over the past two weeks I’ve published four pieces at Forbes.com detailing the heavyweight battle between Occidental Petroleum and Chevron for the prized assets of Anadarko Petroleum, one of the oil and gas industry’s biggest and most successful independent producers. I’ve reproduced them all in a single narrative here, but if you’d rather read them in smaller chunks in their original format, here are the links to each story:

The Competition For Permian Dominance Heats Up With Chevron’s Buyout Of Anadarko

7 More Things To Know About The Chevron Buyout Of Anadarko

Occidental’s Bombshell Ups The Ante For Anadarko

7 More Things You Need To Know About Oxy’s New Bid For Anadarko

 

Here’s the full, long story:

April 12, 2019 – Chevron and Anadarko announce the initial deal:

Had the deal taken place in 2014, when shares of Anadarko PetroleumAPC +0% traded as high as $109, it would have amounted to the largest buyout of an independent producer by a major integrated company in the 21st century, surpassing both ConocoPhillips’ COP +0% 2005 purchase of Burlington Resources and ExxonMobil’s XOM +0% 2009 buyout of XTO. As it is, Anadarko’s Thursday closing price of $46.80 means that Chevron  is able to obtain one of the largest U.S. independents in a cash and stock deal for the seemingly bargain price of $33 billion, slightly behind the $35.6 billion price tag of the Burlington Resources acquisition and well below the $41 billion that ExxonMobil paid for XTO.

Regardless, this is a very, very big deal, one that enables Chevron CVX +0%, already the nation’s second-largest energy company, to expand its operations in a number of key domestic areas, including the Permian Basin, the Rocky Mountain West and the Gulf of Mexico. Internationally, Anadarko will enhance Chevron’s operational base with key assets in places like Algeria, Ghana and Mozambique.

“This transaction builds strength on strength for Chevron,” said Chevron’s Chairman and CEO Michael Wirth. “The combination of Anadarko’s premier, high-quality assets with our advantaged portfolio strengthens our leading position in the Permian, builds on our deepwater Gulf of Mexico capabilities and will grow our LNG business. It creates attractive growth opportunities in areas that play to Chevron’s operational strengths and underscores our commitment to short-cycle, higher-return investments.”

“The strategic combination of Chevron and Anadarko will form a stronger and better company with world-class assets, people and opportunities,” said Anadarko Chairman and CEO Al Walker. “I have tremendous respect for Mike and his leadership team and believe Chevron’s strategy, scale and operational capabilities will further accelerate the value of Anadarko’s assets.”

In its press release, Chevron said that the acquisition will consist of 75% stock and 25% cash , valued at an Anadarko share price of $65, which represents a 37% premium over its Thursday closing price. Chevron will also assume $15 billion of Anadarko’s debt as a part of the transaction. Chevron said it plans to divest “$15 to $20 billion of assets between 2020 and 2022. The proceeds will be used to further reduce debt and return additional cash to shareholders.”

As a practical matter, this deal accelerates the efforts by the major, integrated oil companies to form dominant positions in the prolific and booming Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico. As I noted in a piece last month, Chevron has been engaged in a competition with ExxonMobil, and to a lesser extent, BP and Shell to effectively convert its Permian operations into a true manufacturing operation by leveraging its company assets along every step of the oil and gas value chain.

A big part of a company’s ability to do that is to acquire a large base of contiguous leasehold broadly across the sweet spots of the basin. As CNBC notes this morning, “The companies say the deal creates a 75 mile corridor across the Delaware basin portion of the Permian. Stringing together continuous acreage allows companies to more efficiently carry out the advanced drilling methods needed to produce shale oil and gas.”

That sort of synergy also exists between the two companies’ assets in the Gulf of Mexico, where Chevron says it sees “opportunities for tie-backs to Anadarko assets in the Gulf, which involves connecting offshore fields to existing infrastructure.”

Finally, the deal also allows  Chevron to acquire another major LNG export asset in Mozambique, adding to the company’s already-large portfolio in that booming sector of the energy business.

Anadarko had long been rumored to be a potential takeover target for Chevron or ExxonMobil, and the emerging details of this transaction clearly demonstrate why Chevron became the ultimate suitor. One likely result of today’s deal will be to put even more pressure on ExxonMobil and the other majors to execute further acquisitions of their own as the competition to be the dominant player in the Permian Basin continues to heat up.

The big question is, which independent producer will become the next target?

 

April 13, 2019 – More details come to light

Chevron CVX +0% sent shock waves across the oil and gas media on Friday, with the announcement of its $33.6 billion buyout of Anadarko PetroleumAPC +0%, a deal worth almost $50 billion including the assumption of Anadarko debt. Friday’s reporting from a variety of sources was filled with the basics of the deal, and over the weekend, several industry analysts have worked to put more meat on the bone.

Here are seven more things you need to know about this very big deal:

  • The largest oil and gas merger since 2015. – Analysts at DrillingInfo note that the deal constitutes the largest oil and gas-related transaction since Shell’s $82 billion buyout of LNG company BG in 2015. In an email released late Friday, DrillingInfo notes that “The deal is the sixth largest deal in oil and gas history and the largest deal since Shell bought BG for $82 billion in 2015 to become a global LNG powerhouse.”
  • The largest major/independent buyout in the 21st century. – DrillingInfo’s analysis also points out the fact that, when Chevron’s assumption of more than $15 billion in Anadarko’s debt is included, this transaction surpasses both the ConocoPhillips COP +0%/Burlington Resources 2005 deal and the ExxonMobil XOM +0%/XTO acquisition of 2009.
  • Occidental Petroleum OXY +0% actually offered a higher share price for Anadarko. – CNBC is reporting that Occidental bid more than $70 per share in the takeover battle, an offer that actually included more cash content than Chevron’s. Quoting unidentified sources, CNBC reports that “structural issues with the Occidental bid” led Anadarko’s leadership to go with Chevron’s offer instead.
  • A return to super major status for Chevron. – Wood Mackenzie notes that after the deal closes, Chevron will become firmly ensconced among the ranks of what it calls “super majors” once again.  Chevron stands to move up from the 4th-largest corporate major integrated company to 2nd-largest, behind only ExxonMobil, once the deal is finalized.
  • Does the Chevron/Anadarko deal presage a return to the buyout fever of 2016/2017? – DrillingInfo (DI) notes that this $50 billion transaction comes on the heels of a first quarter of 2019 that saw almost no activity in the M&A space . DI recorded just $1.6 billion in M&A activity in the oil and gas sector during the first three months of the year. As I noted on Friday, there is no question that Chevron’s increasing its overall position in the Permian Basin to 1.4 million net acres (behind only the 1.8 million owned by ExxonMobil) will put pressure on the other major players, like ShellBP and Occidental, to pursue deals of their own.
  • The public policy upheaval in Colorado did not scare Chevron off. – While most of the focus on this transaction has been on Anadarko’s Permian, Gulf of Mexico and international assets, it’s important to note that Anadarko also ranks as the largest producer in Colorado’s DJ Basin. Thus, the recent passage of Senate Bill 19-181, which is clearly designed to hamstring the industry in that state, did not cause Chevron to walk away. That’s a very positive endorsement of the richness of the resource in the Basin’s Niobrara Shale formation.
  • This is a big midstream deal, too. – Anadarko Petroleum will always be remembered as an upstream company with a long and proud history of success in that realm. In its Friday email, DI notes that the company also owns and operates very significant midstream assets: “ Chevron also acquires world class midstream assets that includes 12,509 miles of pipeline that tie to key US supply basins”including the Permian and DJ Basins.

All in all, it’s a deal that is well worth talking about, and that’s what pretty much everyone in the U.S. oil and gas business has been doing since Friday.

 

April 24, 2019: Oxy makes its bombshell new offer in a very public manner

In a surprising move, Occidential Petroleum (OXY) announced Wednesday morning that it was tendering an offer to the board of directors at Anadarko Petroleum APC +0% that OXY describes as being “superior” to the already-accepted offer by Chevron , which was announced two weeks agoNews reports at that time indicated that OXY had in fact offered a higher price for Anadarko – $70 per share – but Anadarko had decided to accept the Chevron offer due to “structural issues with the Occidental bid.”

Unwilling to accept that fate, OXY has now come back with an offer of $76 per share, in which shareholders of Anadarko stock “would receive $38.00 in cash and 0.6094 shares of Occidental common stock for each share of Anadarko common stock.” OXY pegs the total value of this new offer at $57 billion.

This compares to the already-accepted $50 billion Chevron offer that values Anadarko stock at $65 per share, from which shareholders would receive $16.25 in cash and .3869 shares of Chevron for every share of Anadarko stock they own. When markets opened Wednesday morning, OXY was trading at $60.31 and Chevron at $120.45.

Any way you look at it, shareholders would derive a higher initial return from the OXY offer than they would from the Chevron deal. When the original deal was announced two weeks ago, Anadarko’s board was not specific about nature of the “structural issues” with OXY’s original offer that had caused them to reject it. Assuming OXY has dealt with those issues in the scope of this new, even higher offer, it seems to place the Anadarko board in a real quandary.

“We have been focused on Anadarko for several years because we have long believed that we are ideally positioned to generate compelling value from a combination with them. We look forward to engaging immediately with Anadarko’s Board and stakeholders to deliver this superior transaction,” OXY CEO Vicki Hollub said in the company’s April 24 press statement.

OXY has long been a leading oil producer in the Permian Basin, and says the acquisition of Anadarko would increase its production in that basin to 533,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day. The company’s press statement goes on to note that an acquisition of Anadarko would raise OXY’s total enterprise value to over $100 billion and result in a company with total global production of 1.4 million BOE per day.

Shares of Anadarko rose about 11% in pre-market trading, as investors anticipate OXY’s new offer will re-open the bidding for the company. Chevron’s management had not responded as of this writing, but there can be little doubt that OXY’s gambit will result in responses from both Chevron and Anadarko before the day is out.

As is always the case, the only certain aspect of the oil and gas industry is that, in the end, nothing is really certain.

Stay tuned.

 

April 25, 2019: More details of Oxy’s higher offer come to light

A friend asked me Wednesday afternoon if I had ever seen anything similar to the public battle between Occidental Petroleum and Chevron to acquireAnadarko Petroleum APC +0%. I’ve been in and around the oil and gas industry for 40 years now, and so was there throughout the rapid consolidation days of the late 1990s.

There were certainly battles then among the big companies to acquire takeover targets like Amoco, Texaco and Mobil Oil, which ultimately were merged with BP , Chevron and Exxon, respectively. But the difference between those competitive days and what we are seeing this week is the very public nature of Oxy’s move, with a letter to the Anadarko Board of Directors accompanied by a press release.

The same is true of the big takeovers that have happened during this century. I was at Burlington Resources (BR) when it was acquired by ConocoPhillipsin 2006. While rumors had flown for years that BR was a takeover target being eyed by one big company or another, nothing was ever made public until ConocoPhillips’ then-CEO Jim Mulva and BR CEO Bobby Shackouls announced the deal in early December, 2005. A similar quiet, behind-the-scenes process led to ExxonMobil’s acquisition of XTO a few years later.

But here we have Oxy, apparently frustrated that its first offer, which it considered to be more attractive than the bid by Chevron that was ultimately accepted, was not given proper consideration by the Anadarko Board, coming back almost two weeks later with an even higher offer, and doing it in a way that will place great pressure on those directors to reconsider. That’s a very, very different thing than the industry has seen in big takeover battles over the past 20 years or so.

So, that’s the first thing you need to know about this new bid for Anadarko. Based on events and analysis of the last 24 hours, here are six more things to know about this emerging competition:

Oxy considers this as the continuation of a “friendly engagement.” – In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawkbox” Wednesday, Oxy CEO Vicki Hollub was careful not to call this a “fight” , telling host David Faber that “We’ve been working on this Anadarko deal and studying it for two years. It was in July of 2017 that we made our first approach to talk to the CEO of Anadarko. We have been in a friendly engagement since then, and even today, this is still a friendly engagement.”

Most of the value in the deal is in Anadarko’s onshore shale assets. – When asked by Faber about investor concerns that Anadarko’s Gulf of Mexico operations and LNG export assets in Mozambique are better fits for Chevron than for Oxy, Hollub noted that “75% of the value in this deal is in the shale.” Much of that shale, of course, is in the Delaware Basin of West Texas, where Oxy has long been one of the major players. But it’s fair to note that Anadarko is also currently the largest producer in Colorado’s DJ Basin, a region where Oxy has not been an active player.

Oxy remains focused on Anadarko to the exclusion of other potential takeover targets in the Permian. – Hollub told Faber that her company maintains a laser focus on Anadarko for good reasons. “[The opportunity for Oxy is] tremendous, because there’s more than 10,000 wells that can be drilled. In the Delaware Basin, our wells perform about 74% better than Anadarko’s, and we have lower cost of development on both the drilling and completions execution. So when you take that and apply it to 10,000 wells, that’s a huge upside.”

Industry analyst company DrillingInfo agrees that the Permian/Delaware Basin is the big driver here. – In an analysis released Wednesday afternoon, M&A Analyst Andrew Dittmar points out that “The Permian is clearly the primary driver of this competition between Chevron and Occidental for Anadarko.” He also notes that this public competition is going to raise the cost of future acquisitions in the region: “For the increased Oxy bid of $57 billion, we are raising the value allocated to Permian acreage up to nearly $20 billion or ~$80,000 per acre,” Dittmar added.

Synergies between Oxy and Anadarko are also strong in the Middle East. – Dittmar notes that, beyond the Permian/Delaware, the synergy battle here is not all in Chevron’s favor: “Beyond the Permian, Oxy gets just under 40% of its output from the Middle East fitting Anadarko’s operations there, while Anadarko’s Gulf of Mexico and LNG assets are perhaps less of an obvious fit than in the Chevron portfolio.”

The 4th largest deal in the industry’s history. – DrillingInfo previously pegged the Chevron/Anadarko $50 billion bid as being the 5th largest deal in the oil and gas industry’s history, if completed. Oxy’s higher bid of $57 billion, including assumed debt, would make it even larger than BP’s $56 billion takeover of Amoco in 1998 .

The bottom line here is that Chevron and Oxy are competing for Anadarko because of the extremely attractive portfolio of assets that company has accumulated over the years. Hollub doesn’t want to characterize it as a “fight,” but you can’t help but believe that’s exactly what she has on her hands now.

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That is all, for now. But you can bet this story is far from over.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

 

 

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The Facts on Chevron’s Blockbuster Deal to Acquire Anadarko

Today’s Energy Update
(Because Energy Fuels Our Lives)

Over the past few days I have posted up two separate pieces at Forbes.com analyzing the Chevron acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum. This largest takeover of an independent producer by one of the majors in this 21st century ended a half-year drought in the M&A space in America’s oil and gas industry, and moves Chevron up the ranks of the super majors, now ranking behind only ExxonMobil as the second-biggest privately-held major oil company.  Links to both pieces are below.  I hope you enjoy them.

The Competition For Permian Dominance Heats Up With Chevron’s Buyout Of Anadarko

7 More Things You Need To Know About Chevron’s Takeover Anadarko

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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The Oil and Gas Situation: Reviewing 6 Predictions

Today’s Energy Update
(Because Energy Fuels Our Lives)

As Q1 2019 comes to a close, it is time to review the status of some predictions I made here the day after Christmas for what we would see during the first half of 2019. Accurately gauging where the industry will be several months into the future is always a crap shoot, and as usual, I find myself feeling glad I didn’t go out and bet the farm on any of these.

First, let’s look at what I had to say about the domestic rig count as calculated by the folks at DrillingInfo:

…my first prediction is that we will see a gradual fall in the domestic U.S. rig count throughout the first half of 2019. Indeed, the DrillingInfo Daily Rig Count already fell by about 3% during December, from 1160 to 1120 on December 25. I’m betting that, by June 30, that measure will be below 1050…

This particular count finished the quarter at 1049, after falling slowly but steadily throughout the first three months of the year. This represents a 9% drop since Christmas day, and there is no real reason to expect this trend to change during the second quarter, with so many upstream companies prioritizing stock buybacks and other programs designed to return capital to investors and lenders over the mad rush to increase production we saw throughout 2017 and the first 8 months of 2018.

A reasonable updated guess would be that we will see the DrillingInfo count fall to right around 1000 by the time June 30 rolls around.

What about crude prices? Here’s what I predicted they would do in Q1:

…my second prediction is that the price for WTI will rise again, but will not exceed $60 during the first half of 2019.

As things turned out, I had the general direction of crude prices right, but underestimated how rapidly they would rise, as WTI closed at $60.14 in Friday’s trading. The basic market dynamics that advocated in December for what has been a 20% recovery in the WTI benchmark remain in place today. Global demand continues to rise more rapidly than all the experts thought it would at the first of the year, and the OPEC-plus nations still maintain pretty strong compliance with their export quotas.

 

Read the Rest Here

 

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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The Oil And Gas Situation: A Transition In Fundamentals For 2019

Today’s Energy Update
(Because Energy Fuels Our Lives)

A couple of interesting studies have come across my desk in recent days that merit noting. Taken together, they paint a picture of a domestic shale oil and gas industry that is relatively healthy and will only grow healthier throughout 2019 as it benefits from stronger commodity prices.

Will oil inventories hit a record deficit later this year? – That’s what the partners at the Goehring and Rozencwajg investment firm think. In their March 15 analysis, they estimate that stronger-than-projected global demand for crude, combined with the full implementation of promised export cuts by the OPEC-plus countries will result in a significant drop in global crude inventories over the course of this year.

The report correctly notes the habit of the International Energy Agency (IEA) of underestimating global crude demand growth in its initial annual projections. The IEA has had to revise its initial estimates upwards in seven of the last eight years by an average of about half a million barrels of oil per day (bopd) . The firm assumes this trend will continue for 2019, and that IEA’s estimate of demand growth for 2019 is understated by 500,000 bopd.

The report also criticizes the IEA for its rosy projection that production growth for the non-OPEC countries outside of the U.S and Russia will grow by 120,000 bopd during 2019, a projection Goehring and Rozencwajg believe is “simply not possible. Instead, given the severe recent weakness in this group, we believe this number may actually decline by 300,000 b/d” during 2019. Taken together, the firm believes the IEA is overly-pessimistic in its estimates by a total of 920,000 bopd.

Read the Rest Here

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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The Real Existential Threat To America’s Oil Industry Isn’t What You Think

Today’s Energy Update
(Because Energy Fuels Our Lives)

Mark P. Mills published an excellent piece on Feb. 28 detailing why the “Green New Deal” proposed by New York Cong. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and other Democrats does not represent any sort of existential threat to the oil and gas industry, now or in the future. If you haven’t read this highly-informative piece, you should.

But the reality that “green energy” tech is too limited by the laws of physics to ever hope to displace the internal combustion engine or fossil-fuel-powered baseload electricity generation does not mean that the U.S. industry is free from existential threats. Such threats originate mainly from failures by the industry to universally and effectively address issues that chronically impact and irritate a variety of stakeholders over time.

One of the characteristics that makes the domestic industry so great is the fact that it is not a nationalized, single entity like Mexico’s Pemex or PDVSA in Venezuela. But its status as a business made up of thousands of highly-competitive, private and corporate entities also makes it less able to develop and adopt truly effective, universal solutions to ongoing, chronic issues.

Hydraulic fracturing, or “Fracking”, is a great example. Fracking is literally a technological miracle that has transformed the United States from a country that seemed hopelessly reliant on foreign imports at the turn of the century into one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of both oil and natural gas today. But the industry’s inability to find and adopt ways to make the process less impactful on individual stakeholders and local communities has also led several states – including New York, New Jersey and Vermont – to enact either outright or de facto bans on fracking within their borders.

Read the Rest Here

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Crude And LNG Export Facilities Work To Solve Bottlenecks Before They Can Start

Several recent big items of positive news relating to exports of oil and LNG along the Texas Gulf Coast might come just in time to help allay fears of new, downstream bottlenecks for production coming out of the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale plays.

The current bottleneck, of course, involves a lack of needed pipeline takeaway capacity for oil and gas coming out of the Permian Basin. But a dozen or more pipeline expansions and new-build projects currently in progress promise to quickly alleviate that situation during the course of 2019 and 2020. The vast majority of takeaway capacity in these projects will be designed to move the production to ports along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, with several of the lines picking up crude and natural gas produced in the Eagle Ford along the way.

This outlook has in recent weeks produced a new concern that, as those new pipelines get filled up with more and more volumes coming out of West and South Texas, new bottlenecks could materialize related to the capacity along the Gulf Coast to refine and export the production. Several recent developments in the Corpus Christi area hold the promise of heading the potential new bottlenecks off before the can form.

Where natural gas is concerned, Cheniere Energy this week was able to load its first shipment of LNG out of its new Corpus Christi LNG terminal . The Maria Energy tanker, which has a capacity of 174,000 cubic meters of LNG, left the terminal with a full load on December 11, the first load of LNG to ever ship out of a Texas-based facility. “Exporting the first commissioning cargo of LNG from Texas demonstrates Cheniere’s ability to deliver projects safely and ahead of schedule, including the first greenfield LNG export facility in the lower 48 states,” Cheniere chief executive Jack Fusco said.

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The Oil And Gas Situation: A Time For Setting Records

They say numbers don’t lie, and the last two weeks for the U.S. oil and gas industry have seen the announcements of some pretty amazing numbers. These are numbers that demonstrate exactly how productive and efficient the business has become, and numbers that must be put into some context to understand how extraordinary they really are.

So, as we move into mid-December 2018, let’s give it a shot:

The U.S became a “net exporter” of petroleum liquids for the first time 75 years. – That’s right, the week of November 30 through December 5 saw the United States of America actually export more crude oil and other oil-derived liquids than it imported from other countries. The key part of that sentence is “other oil-derived liquids,” which include gasoline, diesel and other refined products. Rolling all of those products into the equation, the U.S. exported about 211,000 barrels per day more than it imported for the week, as reported by Bloomberg.

The U.S. did not become a net exporter of “crude oil,” as some others in the energy news media mistakenly reported. As Robert Rapier reported at Forbes.com over the weekend, our country is still a sizable net importer of crude alone, an equation that will not be reversed anytime soon.

Regardless, the fact that the U.S. had higher volumes of oil-derived liquids moving out of its various ports than it had coming for a full week is an extraordinary change of circumstance from just a decade ago, a true sea change delivered by the ability to extract oil from the nation’s shale formations.

Read the Rest Here

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Lessons Learned Through Two Oil Busts

Read The Full Story Here

“How does this bust differ from the bust in the ’80s?”

I get asked that question quite often, partly because I’m growing old and it shows on my face, and partly because I’ve been in the oil and gas industry since 1979, and people assume — rightly or wrongly — that I know some stuff because of that. I did live through that bust in the ’80s, and it wasn’t fun. I got laid off from a job in 1985 and was out of work for a few months — the only time I’ve been unemployed since I was 16 years old — and that caused me and my wife great financial hardship.

So I do remember those days all too well. To understand why that bust happened, you first have to go back to the oil shocks of the 1970s, when the Saudis and other OPEC nations implemented oil embargoes, first in 1973 and then again in 1979.

Two memories from that period of time stick with me to this day. The first is of filling my mother’s 1972 Pontiac Grand Ville up with gasoline on the day in 1974 when the price of gas at the local Circle K in Beeville, Texas, reached the then unheard of sum of 50 cents per gallon. That was the first time I had ever had to come up with 10 bucks (the aircraft carrier-size Grand Ville had a 26-gallon tank) to fill up a car with gas. I knew I was going to have to start working overtime or get another job if I was going to keep putting gas in that car. The second memory is of sitting at a long-disappeared Texaco station at the corner of Richmond Avenue and Buffalo Speedway in Houston during the summer of 1979, having to wait in a very long line of cars on an odd-numbered day to pay over $1 per gallon for my allotment of gas to fill up my Chevy Caprice. Another 26-gallon tank that was even more costly to fill.

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