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American Political Revolutions Never Come Easy

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

This was never going to be easy. No political revolution ever progresses in a straight line. The American system – the Constitution itself – strongly agitates against rapid, radical political change of any kind.

In the first two years of the Barack Obama Administration, Americans saw rapid, radical political change and rebelled against it, turning the House over to Republicans in 2010 and then the Senate in 2014.  Americans again saw rapid, radical change over the past two years, as President Donald Trump reversed about 90% of the Obama era from the history books, and reacted last night by turning the House back to the Democrats.

This is not only nothing out of the ordinary, it is exactly how the nation’s founders consciously wanted the system to work. No one on either side has to like it, but it is important to recognize this reality of the American system and work to affect change within its confines.

So, just as happened in 2010, we end up with a split decision as the voters basically send a signal to Washington, D.C. to slow down. The country writ large isn’t necessarily opposed to the general direction things have been moving, but just wants to take more time to think about things before they happen.  This isn’t always a productive dynamic within the voting public, but we have no choice but to accept the verdict and move on.

In the House of Representatives, where I was hopeful that the Republicans would be able to retain a small majority, the Democrat gain will end up being around 30 net seats, perhaps a few more.  In the Senate, it’s most likely going to be 55 Republicans vs. 45 Democrats/Commies for the next two years, which is exactly where I had figured we’d end up since January.

The sad part of it all is that we will now get nothing out of the House of Representatives other than hearings and subpoenas and bombastic posturing by clowns like Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff for 24 solid months.  The good part of that is that those clowns and others will no doubt so disgust the voting public with their outrageous behavior that the voters will rebel again in 2020 and turn the House back over to the Republicans.  We can always hope, anyway.

The 55 seat majority in the Senate (which is what it will be whenever someone wakes up and declares McSally and Rosendale the winners in their races) means that Mitch McConnell no longer has to worry about getting Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski’s squish votes on every judicial nominee. And praise the lord, fellow squishes Jeff Flake and Bob Corker will no longer be around because they retired. What a relief that is.

Another blessing is that we Texans won’t have to hear any more nonsense about Beto O’Rourke.  Well, at least until January, that is, when he declares his candidacy for the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination, at which point he becomes the nation’s problem child. But everyone should be grateful to Ted Cruz for at least giving us a two month break.

Speaking of breaks, what is that new noise you are hearing from your radios and television sets this morning? Why, it’s the sound of non-political commercials! Isn’t that a joyful noise? Yes, I hate commercials as much as the next guy, but I have honestly missed them as the commercial breaks have been filled with nothing but negative political ads for the last two months.

In my home state of Texas, Republicans once again won every statewide election – as they have done in every cycle for the past quarter-century – but leaders of the Texas GOP will be waking up this morning with an uneasy feeling. While Governor Greg Abbott and a few other officeholders won their re-elections by the traditional double-digit margins, Cruz only prevailed against his well-funded opponent by 3% and several others, including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, saw their winning edges cut to 5%.

Yes, Irish Bob O’Rourke’s ability to pour $80 million of California/New York money into his race at the top of the ticket had a significant impact in races all the way up and down the ballot. But there is little question that Texas Repubs need to do some real soul-searching and find ways to broaden their appeal, particularly to middle-class suburban women and Hispanics if they want to retain their statewide dominance for the next decade or more.

Some other observations:

  • In conceding his very close loss to Ron DeSantis in Florida’s governor’s race, Democrat Andrew Gillum displayed a high degree of class and dignity that will help sustain him as a force in Florida poltics for years to come. We have not heard the last of this guy.
  • Unfortunately, Democrat Stacey Abrams, the Democrat candidate for Governor in Georgia, can’t summon those same qualities within herself and will keep her state in turmoil despite her obvious defeat.  Sad.
  • Back in Texas, Republican Dan Crenshaw, the Purple Heart veteran who was smeared by the sick people at Saturday Night Live over the weekend, won his race and will serve in the House of Representatives for the next two years.  There is still justice in this world, although you often have to look too hard to find it.
  • It is truly gratifying that Jon Tester, the Democrat slug who smeared Admiral Ronny Jackson, is dying this long, slow political death up there in Montana this morning. Couldn’t happen to a more rotten guy.
  • Nevada is officially a blue state now, and that is frightening. One wonders how long it will take the Democrats to completely screw up the state money printing machine that is Las Vegas. I give it a decade.
  • Scott Walker finally, at long last, lost an election in the blue state of Wisconsin, ending one of the most amazing political success stories of modern times. We haven’t heard the last of Walker.
  • Socialist dimwit Alexandria Ocasio Cortez won her race, and God bless the people of Queens for giving her to us to make fun of for the next two years.
  • Once again, CNN completely outclassed all other TV outlets with its election coverage.  John King is without question, far and away the best election night analyst in the known universe.  While Fox News was having a coffee chat session with a bunch of pundits, King and Wolf Blitzer were taking CNN’s viewers on constant whirlwind, county-by-county, sometimes precinct-by-precinct tours of myriad house, senate and gubernatorial races all over the country.  I won’t turn the channel over to CNN again before 2020, but when Election Night comes around that November, I’ll make an exception.

Finally, as I was wrapping this up, just a few moments ago, President Donald Trump (I never tire of typing those three glorious words) whipped this out to Twitter land:

If you thought the man was going to be intimidated by Speaker San Fran Nan or Bugeyes Adam Schiff, well, think again.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog [Update 9]

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

 

Ok, folks, here we go.

Unlike I did this afternoon, I am going to run the Updates down the page, to keep them from getting mixed up with all the adds.  I will note each update with a number in the title, i.e., I will add “Update 1” to the title with the first update, “Update 2” with the 2nd, etc., so you’ll be able to easily know when something new is there.  I’ll also send out a tweet for those who follow on Twitter.

PLEASE COMMENT – I will be following your comments and responding to as many as I can.

What to look for early:

Kentucky HD 6 and Georgia HD 6 – if the Rs are leading in both these GOP-held districts when the polls close at 7:00 ET, it’s cause for celebration.  If the Ds are ahead, not so much.  Unless you’re a Democrat, of course.

Trump won both of these districts easily in 2016, but the Democrats have spent tons of money trying to turn them both.

Also, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th district.  That’s another the Ds are hoping to turn tonight.

If the Ds are winning in all of these districts, then their probability of taking the House becomes near-certain.  If they are losing them all, then we’re going to have a late night, perhaps early morning before we know where things are going.

Indiana Senate – We will also be seeing first numbers in this race at 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT.  It’s a big one, though not needed for the GOP to retain control in the Senate.  CNN’s already reporting what is most likely the absentee ballots, and Republican Braun is up big over Democrat incumbent Donnelly, but the Rs always lead in the absentee votes in Indiana.

We’ll see.

Back shortly.

UPDATE 9:  DeSantis and Scott are now likely to both win in Florida.  What an amazing turnaround.

Braun has won Indiana.

Blackburn has won Tennessee.

Manchin has won WVA.

Kramer will win North Dakota.

John James is competing strongly in Michigan.

Cruz is 100k votes down but there are still over 100 rural counties who have not reported any votes at all to this point.  Karl Rove says Cruz will win in the end because of that.  I think Rove is right.

Right now, the Ds lead in 31 Red districts, the Rs lead in 5 Blue districts, and Fox News is now projecting the Democrats will gain a majority at the end of the evening.

We’ll see.  I’m not convinced yet.

UPDATE 8:  Barr has won KY 6.  Brat is barely behind know in VY 7.  If Brat can come back, that would be huge.  Still a big fat ZERO votes counted in GA 6.

Both Republicans are still holding on in Florida’s statewide races with 96% of the vote counted, and it appears that the votes still outstanding are pretty evenly split between R and D areas of the state.  Holy cow.

Cruz still a little behind in Texas, but most rural areas are still yet to report.

In Tennessee, the senate race is not close at this point, but will tighten as the night goes along.  But I think Blackburn wins that one.  [Fox just called it for Marsha!]

DeWine now in the lead in the Ohio governor’s race!

Braun still killing it in Indiana!

Kramer’s going to kill Heitcamp!

John James actually leading in the early Michigan returns.

This night is shaping up nicely, folks.  Keep the faith.

 

UPDATE 7:  I continue to be struck how much tonight is like 2016, especially in Florida statewide races.  Here we sit again with 93% of the votes counted, and the races are too close to call.  In 2016, everyone assumed all the outstanding votes were in the Miami/Broward area and Trump would lose.  But it turned out that there were still a bunch of votes sitting uncounted in GOP areas, and in a bunch of GOP-leaning precincts in South Florida.  Trump wins.

Cruz finally takes the lead in Texas, as the early vote returns start to finally come in from rural areas.  He will continue to build that lead as the night goes on.

Right now, I have to say that things are stacking up pretty nicely for the Rs.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

UPDATE 6:  Ok, things are starting to shape up now:

– Cruz is going to win by 8-10 points, based on what we are seeing early.  Cool.

– Both DeSantis and Scott have now moved into leads in their races.  But most of the outstanding votes are in Miami/Broward area.  You have to think the Ds will win, but we thought the same in the 2016 presidential race, too.

– Barr is building his lead in KY 6.

– Bratt is holding on in VA 7.  Most remaining votes are in R areas.

– Braun still killing it in Indiana.

– Still not a damn vote in in GA 6.  Unreal.

– Despicable Donna Shalala has won FL 27, a Democrat pickup.  Ugh.

 

UPDATE 5:  Barr now dead even in KY 6, Brat has fallen behind, though just by a couple thousand votes.  Still nothing on GA 6.  What the hell?

Oops, Barr took the lead with 77% of the vote counted just as I hit “enter” on this update.

DeSantis now within 1.2%, Scott within 1.4% in Florida, as the Panhandle votes finally start coming in.  Still lots of votes outstanding in Miami/Dade, though, too, though.  No way to call those races yet.

Again, it’s 2016 all over again down there.

Braun retaining a strong lead on Donnelly, but he needs it for when Indiana’s larger cities start reporting votes later tonight.

Irish Bob O’Rourke is up early over Ted Cruz, but it’s just Dallas turning in its early vote totals.  No worries, yet.

 

UPDATE 4:  Brat now moving out to a significant lead in VA7.  Barr has pulled within .3% in KY 6, still tons of votes to be counted.

The FL Gov and Sen races are tightening with every update.  Nelson had led by as much as 6% but now up by 2.  Gillum up by just 1.6.

Nothing in from GA 6 yet, unfortunately.

This feels an awful lot like 2016, doesn’t it?  Yes, it does.

 

UPDATE 3:  Brat now actually looking ok in early returns, which are most likely from urban areas.  He’ll be stronger in the suburbs and rural areas.

Braun running much stronger against Donnelly right now in rural areas than expected.  Well ahead of pace so far.

Can’t help noticing that CNN goes to their black anchor person every time there’s an update to be given on the Florida and Georgia governor’s races, both of which feature black candidates for the Ds.  So damn ridiculous.

The encouraging thing about Florida right now is that, even though the Rs trail in the Gov and Sen races, votes are already coming in from Miami/Dade County, which is unusual.

In KY 6, D McGrath is now well ahead of R Barr.  Ugh.  Still early, though, and don’t know where the votes are from yet.

 

UPDATE 2:  Ok, it’s time to say it:  CNN just kicks Fox’s ass on these election night events.  Fox just has a bunch of people sitting around pontificating while CNN is giving us every detail in every county in every state.  I normally never tune in to CNN, but on election nights, man, there’s really no choice here.

 

UPDATE 1:  Bill Nelson is underperforming his 2012 re-election in Florida so far, by about 5%.  That was a very close race, so that again bodes well for the GOP in the Sunshine State.  Most vote in so far are from heavily-Democrat Pinellas County.

 

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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