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The Key to Predicting the Democrat Race: Learning the Real Lessons of History

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

It’s very predictable that Jeff Greenfield can’t predict anything accurately. – Dinosaur DC Swamp creature Jeff Greenfield had a typically vapid piece in Politico on Sunday that sums up the sorry  state of media punditry in the nation’s capital quite nicely. It’s a piece filled to the gills with the tiresome nostrums and shibboleths adhered to by the DC pundit class, and thus exactly what we would expect to see published in Politico.

Greenfield, who bills himself as “a five-time Emmy-winning network television analyst and author,” has been completely wrong about everything since the day in June, 2015 when Donald Trump and Melania rode down the escalator at Trump Tower to announce his candidacy. Frustrated by his own foolish consistency, Greenfield assumes that, because he is an awarded “expert,” everyone else must be wrong as well. Thus the title of his piece, “Why You’re Wrong About the Democratic Primary.”

The thesis of Greenfield’s piece is itself highly predictable, and not just because of its headline. It’s also utterly predictable that a guy who is always wrong – like Greenfield – would pen a piece claiming everyone else is just like he is. After all, didn’t every “expert” predict about 500 times between May, 2015 and May 2016 that Trump’s campaign was dead, and that some random event represented the “beginning of the end for Donald Trump” like Greenfield did?

Didn’t every “expert”, inside-the-beltway pundit predict that Hillary Clinton would best Trump by a landslide? Didn’t every “expert” in our fake national news media predict about 300 times between Robert Mueller’s appointment as Special Counsel in May, 2017 and the issuance of his report in March, 2019 that “Robert Mueller has got the goods on Trump?”

Well…yeah. Yeah, they all did predict all of those things. Greenfield even admits as much waaaaaayyyy down at the bottom of his piece where, after writing 800 words of drivel about how the “lessons of history” tell us that nothing about this current nomination battle is in any way predictable, he says:

In 2016, Donald Trump, a candidate with no political experience and no measurable support from his party’s establishment, never trailed in the polls and was never seriously threatened during his campaign for the nomination. Based on the lessons of history, Trump’s inevitable fall was confidently predicted by journalists and insiders, even as he racked up primary victories and delegates.

So, if Greenfield is talking exclusively about inside-the-beltway DC media “expert” pundits, then his piece would be accurate. But if – as the headline appears to imply – he’s also talking about seasoned observers who have never lived inside-the-beltway bubble and who understand how the 99% of the country outside of the nation’s capital works, then Greenfield is massively wrong.

The problem with DC pundits is not that they rely on the lessons of history, but that they don’t understand what those lessons of history happen to be. I was telling my clients in December of 2015 that Donald Trump was almost 100% certain to be the eventual GOP nominee due to one simple lesson of history about the GOP, which is that, since the advent of polling just after World War II, that party has always, without fail, ended up nominating the candidate who led in the polls in the December prior to the election. DC pundits were uniformly shocked as a class that that immutable lesson of history continued to hold true in 2016.

In May, 2016, I told a gathering of about 30 corporate CEOs and other senior executives that Donald Trump would probably win the general election due to another simple lesson of history, which is that every presidential election is determined by the overriding national public mood, i.e., is the public interested in change or is it wanting to preserve the status quo? The public in 2016, after 8 long years of oppressive, economy-dampening regulation by the Obama thugs, was definitely in a mood for change, even the radical change being offered by Donald Trump.

This was at a time when Greenfield and his fellow media “experts” were myopically predicting a Clinton landslide based on an array of polls they all knew were flawed at best and intentionally faked at worst.

But back to the Democrat nomination race. We can’t sit here today and confidently predict who the nominee will be – Greenfield is right about that. In fact, because of the proportional system of awarding delegates the Dems have adopted for the election cycle, we may not be able to do that until next year’s convention rolls around.

But there are all sorts of things that are very easy to accurately predict about this race at this point in time, most of them based on “lessons of history” that Greenfield and other media “experts” seem incapable of grasping.

Here’s a lesson of history: No candidate who lacks a compelling basis for entering the race in the first place is going to become the eventual nominee. See Gillibrand, Kirsten as a prime example. That desperate, humiliating video we saw of her pandering in an Iowa gay bar on Saturday was pretty much an inevitable outcome for a candidate who has literally no reason to be in this race to begin with. This same lesson applies to other mystery candidates like Bill DeBlasio, John Delaney and Steve Bullock (who is the Governor of Montana, for those 99% of you who have never heard of him). All these people and several others who have no compelling reason to run might as well go home now.

Here’s another lesson of history: Failure to strike while the political iron is hot can be fatal. See O’Rourke, Irish Bob as this year’s best example. The fake news media was in love with “Beto” and desperately wanted him to get into the race last December, January at the latest. I wrote way back in January that Irish Bob was missing his moment, but did he listen? Nooooooo. Irish Bob piddled around for another two months before finally coming out as a candidate, and by then his date to the media prom had been taken by Mayor Pete. Now, Texas Dems, seeing O’Rourke’s candidacy dead in the water, are desperate for him to come back to Texas and challenge John Cornyn for the U.S. senate seat.

How about this lesson of history: Age matters, and it matters a ton for some of these people. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are simply too old to be president of the United States. Neither will be the party’s nominee. Mayor Pete is simply too young. He won’t be the nominee, either, although he will be able to compete in the primaries and carry enough delegates into next year’s convention to be a bit of a power broker if no clear nominee emerges from the primary elections.

One final lesson of history: The nominee will always be someone who is in step with the party’s voter base. We have to caveat this one this time due to the proportional awarding of delegates, which creates an unusually-high potential for a brokered convention where you might see a compromise candidate like the Pantsuit Princess or Michelle Obama or even Oprah Winfrey emerge. But the candidate who will emerge from the primary elections with the most accumulated delegates will be the person who can most authentically play the party’s identity politics game, enthusiastically support the party’s lurch to outright infanticide, and keep the party’s irrational social media mob ginned up. This very dynamic is why you are seeing Elizabeth Warren’s polling numbers firming up slowly as the race goes on.

In addition to being too old, Biden simply has no ability to satisfy this final lesson. He won’t be the nominee. If he is, then we would be looking at a Trump landslide of 1984 proportions, as a discouraged and dissatisfied Democrat voter base stays home in droves on Election Day.

Jeff Greenfield and the other DC media “experts” think I’m wrong about all of this. What do you think?

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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The State of the Democrat Race: Biden Seals His Fate

Today’s Campaign Update, Part II
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Hey, remember when Joe Biden’s rationale for running was that he would be the moderate who would appeal to independent voters? – Yeah, that’s all gone now.  I’ve told you all along that Joe Biden will not – cannot – be the 2020 nominee for the Democrat Party, and this was the week in which he sealed his own fate.

Honestly, it was inevitable. This man is a dinosaur trying to compete in a modern age with which he is totally unfamiliar. He’s like Phil Hartman’s genius “Un-Frozen Caveman Lawyer” SNL character, an ancient throwback to a time long past who is always confused and frightened by our modern ways and customs. More specifically, Biden is confused and frightened by the ways and customs of his Party’s modern-day voter base, pretty much all of which lies to the left of Fidel Castro and, where abortion is concerned, Margaret Sanger.

Not surprisingly at all, Biden got all caught up in abortion politics this week, and the outcome destroyed the entire rationale for his candidacy to begin with. Margaret Sanger, the founder of Planned Parenthood, wanted all abortions to be legal as a means of controlling America’s black population. Today’s Democrat Party voter base fully endorses Sanger’s beliefs – abortions kill a far higher percentage of African American babies than those of any other segment of U.S. society – but takes it a step farther, to allowing babies born alive after attempted abortions to be left on a table to die.

This is what Democrat politicians refer to as a woman’s right to “healthcare.”  You betcha.

Biden, a life-long practicing Catholic, has always supported the Hyde Amendment, a policy which prevents Americans of actual religious faith from having to pay for abortions through their tax dollars. That is, until this week, when the subject was raised. When Biden reasserted his Hyde support, the SJWs in the social media universe went berserk, and almost frightened the eldery man out of what little hair he has remaining.

Less than 24 hours later, Biden gave up, fully endorsing his party’s baby-killing at all costs ways.

Poof! No more reason for Creepy Uncle Joe to be in the race. If Biden’s going to be just another Commie, baby-killing hack, why, the rest of the field is filled to the gills with younger, more attractive, more female and more minority versions of that.

So, again, as I’ve said all along, Biden will not be the nominee. His polling lead will have evaporated by October – really, by September at this rate – and he will leave the race shortly after he fails to win Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina. Which means March. He is this cycle’s Jeb!, but he just hasn’t realized it yet.

Elsewhere in the race, things remained pretty static. Bernie the Commie remains ensconced in second place in every poll, though his numbers keep slowly declining as the numbers for Fauxcahontas keep creeping up. Every Democrat nominating race is always won by the best liar, and little Lieawatha was just born to lie. So she is now firmly in third place with a slow-moving bullet.

Kamala Harris is going nowhere fast, and seems to have no idea of how to change that dynamic. She is just a very poor candidate, which is not surprising given the unseemly manner in which she advanced herself to the Senate in the first place. Mayor Pete has also stagnated after having received tens of millions in free media from our fake news outlets, and may have reached the peak of his popularity already. Irish Bob O’Rourke, fresh off of his utterly-failed effort to reboot his campaign, is simply dead in the water.

In fact, the entire field has stagnated at this point, as the fake news media flails about trying to decide which of them will be promoted next, and I suspect that will remain the state of play until the debates begin in a few weeks.

Here is a prediction I will make when that season comes around: The only actually interesting candidate in the race, Tulsi Gabbard, will really stand out on the debate stage. She will then likely become the media’s next “rising star” obsession.

What do I mean by “interesting candidate”? I mean that Gabbard, like Donald Trump in 2016, will stand out on a debate stage because she will be the only person on the stage saying what she truly believes, rather than just reciting a bunch of talking points scripted for her by other people. That was the real reason why Trump ended up becoming the GOP nominee, because most ordinary Americans are sick to death of watching politicians recite talking points. Like Trump, Gabbard tends to directly answer the questions posed to her, and does it in plain language most people can understand.

So, expect her to really stand out among the clutter of political hackery that will surround her on that debate stage. As a woman and minority, Gabbard also has some of the identity politics attributes valued by shallow Democrat voters. She is not, however, a particularly good liar, so while she will likely get a boost out of the debates, she cannot become the eventual nominee.

I had previously thought that Andrew Yang might do similarly well in the debates, but he has completely succumbed to the bad advice from professional communications “experts.” So he sounds no different than Kirsten Gillibrand or Kamala Harris these days. Not a recipe for winning if you are, like Yang, an insurgent candidate looking to stand out in a crowd.

The only other candidate I’d expect to perhaps get a boost out of the early debates would be Texas’s Julian Castro, the only actual Hispanic candidate in the race. Castro is a very smart guy and a very polished speaker. But again, not an especially convincing liar, which will really harm him with Democrat voters.

So right now we are just kind of stuck in a holding pattern until the debates get started. That’s when things will really start to get interesting.

Here are my initial odds on the race, which I plan to update weekly:

Anyone Else – Even

Hillary Clinton – 5 to 1

Joe Biden – 100 to 1

Bernie the Commie – 20 to 1

Elizabeth Warren – 6 to 1

Kamala Harris – 12 to 1

Mayor Pete – 50 to 1

Irish Bob – 1,000 to 1

Spartacus – 20 to 1

Tulsi Gabbard – 50 to 1

Julian Castro – 50 to 1

Kirsten Gillibrand – 6 million to 1

Amy Klobuchar – 1,000 to 1

Bill DeBlasio – Infinity to 1

The rest of the declared field – 100 to 1

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Beto O’Rourke Issues the Most Authentic Democrat Apology Ever

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Apology accepted, you giant a**hole! – Desperate times call for desperate measures, as they say, and no Democrat candidates are more desperate these days than Eric “Otter” Swalwell and Irish Bob “Beto” O’Rourke. This week, both campaigns decided it would be best for their failing candidates to apologize for being exactly who they are.

So, Swalwell went out on Monday and, in on of the most stilted, palpably insincere moments of 2019, made a video in which he apologized to a woman for being a white man, saying “I may be another white guy, but I know there are gaps in my knowledge or in my experience and I know when to pass the mic.”

Ummmm, no, dude, the very existence of this video clearly demonstrates you haven’t the slightest clue about when to do that.

When questioned by Fox News’s Martha MaCallum about Swalwell’s gesture, Trey Gowdy nailed it, saying “Well, Eric’s clearly riding a wave. I think he’s all the way up to zero in the polling.”  Ooof.

Not to be outdone by one of the shrinking handful of contenders he still leads in the polling, Irish Bob O’Rourke issued a video of his own on Tuesday. In this one, he apologizes to his 2018 senate campaign staff for being “a giant asshole.” Which, of course, is what everyone was thinking about him but afraid to say in polite company. But we aren’t in polite company here at Today’s Campaign Update, so we just plow right ahead and say it.

Hey, this is a really promising trend we have going on here for the Democrats. Maybe the rest of the field will take this opportunity issue some heartfelt apologies of their own for their past misdeeds that we are all totally aware of.  Wouldn’t that be fun?

Here are some examples of the apology opportunities that lie out there in Democrat land:

  • Joe Biden could apologize for being a serial woman-and-child groper;
  • Kamala Harris could apologize for being a floozy who slept her way to the Senate;
  • Fauxcahontas could apologize for being, well, Fauxcahontas;
  • The Commie could apologize for being an America-hating Marxist;
  • Pete Buttigieg could apologize for being just so darn cute;
  • Amy Klobuchar could apologize for being a heinously-abusive boss;
  • Cory Booker could apologize to Spartacus;
  • Kirstin Gillibrand could apologize for ever announcing her candidacy in the first place;
  • John Hickenlooper could apologize for having been a pretty good governor, thus ending any hope that he might actually succeed in Democrat presidential politics;
  • Jay Inslee, a horrible governor, could apologize in advance to all those future dead Washingtonians whose bodies will be mixed with leaves and manure to become compost;
  • Bill DeBlasio could apologize for being the worst mayor in a city whose history is filled with an endless series of awful mayors, interrupted only by 8 years of Rudy Giuliani;
  • Tulsi Gabbard could apologize to the other contenders for being the only actually interesting candidate in the entire field;
  • Marianne Williamson could apologize for being someone… I don’t even know who she is;
  • Seth Moulton could apologize to Fox News viewers for denying their ability to cringe and laugh out loud at every opinion uttered on-air by Marie Harf;
  • Julian Castro could apologize for being too authentically Hispanic to ever hope to attract the votes of Democrat voters who just love to be deceived.

This could go on almost endlessly, given the collection of miscreants, hacks and life-long frauds that are leading the race right now.

But of course, it won’t. Being a leftist asshole means never really having say you’re sorry, unless you think there’s some political advantage to doing it. Pretty sure that was in a movie once.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Trump Delivers Another Master’s Course in the art of Persuasion

Today’s Campaign Update, Evening Edition
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

These people will never learn. – In the last 48 hours, the President of the United States has accomplished the following:

  • Got our fake news media to endlessly communicate the message that the guy leading the polls to be the Democrat nominee in 2020 just might be a “low IQ individual”; and
  • Convinced Deep State skunk and current National Teenage Drama Queen James Comey to discuss the possibility that he might have committed outright treason in an op/ed published in the Washington Post.

That is some world-class political persuasion right there, folks, and the hilarious thing about it is that the President’s opponents basically did all the damage to themselves as they scrambled to respond to a handful of Presidential tweets. The outright cluelessness of these people about how Trump operates as we sit here, four full years after he first started doing this kind of thing to them right after he announced his candidacy back in 2015, is truly stunning to observe.

Think about it: Every fake news outlet in America and every fake journalist who habits social media has been talking about whether or not Joe Biden is a “low IQ individual” since Saturday, and the discussion shows no signs of stopping. Matter of fact, the President issued this tweet less than an hour before I began writing this piece just to make sure it keeps going:

That tweet came after the Biden campaign, after having remained intelligently silent, also fell into the trap by issuing a statement denying its candidate is an idiot – why did they feel the need to do that? Think about it – and lambasting the POTUS for insulting a former vice president on foreign soil, a sentiment so hilariously ludicrous that it only goes to prove how dumb Joe Biden and his staff truly are.

Thus, the discussion about whether or not Joe Biden has the IQ of the average parrot will continue uninterrupted for at least another 24 hours. Which, by the way, IS EXACTLY WHAT THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO HAPPEN.

I mean, how hard is this to figure out?

And then there was our National Drama Queen, denying he and his fellow deep state cabal members at the Obama-era FBI committed treason.  Holy crap.

Here’s a trick for you:  Go to Google and put the word “treason” into the search box.  Guess what comes up first? You got it – an op/ed by James Comey!

Do I really need to say anything more about this one, other than that it will compete with the story about whether or not Joe Biden is smarter than a dung beetle to be the lead story on every TV/Radio/social media news page for the next 24-48 hours?

Again, exactly what Trump wants.

Next thing you know, we’ll see John Brennan going on MSNBC to urge CIA Director Gina Haspel and DNI Dan Coats to commit outright sedition by refusing to comply with Attorney General William Barr’s efforts to declassify crucial documents related to Spygate.

What’s that? Brennan already did that last Friday?

Now do you understand?

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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New Democrat Strategy: Hidin’ Biden

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Hey, why does that strategy sound so familiar?– The Washington Post carried a piece on Sunday titled “Biden’s Campaign is one of Limited Exposure.” Gosh, that sure sounds like something we’ve heard from a leading Democrat candidate before, doesn’t it?

Yeah, sure does. To see why, all we must do is hark back to 2015, when the Pantsuit Princess’s advisors decided that the best thing for her to do was to lay low and stay out of the public eye as much as possible. Why would that be the case, you might wonder? Well, it was because the Fainting Felon’s team recognized that they had on their hands an extraordinarily unlikable candidate, a candidate whose polling numbers fell in direct correlation with the amount of public exposure she received. Plus, they had a candidate with a variety of physical infirmities – like her chronic hacking cough and the fact that she was incapable of climbing a few steps up to a stage without assistance – that had to be carefully hidden from the public eye.

Thus, the Coughing Crook’s campaign was one of strategic hiding, a campaign designed to attract as little direct attention onto the candidate herself as possible. While Donald Trump and 15 other GOP contenders were duking it out on national TV every day, the Grasping Grifter was issuing carefully-scripted tweets, speaking maybe twice a week at the standard half-filled high school gymnasium, and otherwise avoiding any live contact with anyone who might ask an inconvenient question of her. That strategy continued right on through Election Day 2016, and we all saw how that turned out for the Democrats.

Fast forward four years, and we now see Creepy Uncle Joe employing the exact same strategy. While 24 other Democrat candidates are jockeying for position in the daily pecking order, desperately seeking all the free media attention they can get, the guy who has had more facial work than Cher and whose really bad hair plug job all fell out late in the 20th century has suddenly gone quiet following his much-heralded two week campaign kickoff a month ago.

It isn’t hard to see why. As we discussed last week, Biden very predictably jumped out to a big lead in the various polls during the 10 days following his formal campaign announcement, and then saw that lead quickly start to disintegrate in direct correlation with the amount of actual media attention he received.

See, Democrat voters love the idea of Joe Biden, but it was starting to become too obvious that they aren’t all that fond of waking up to the reality of Joe Biden. The idea of Biden is the thought that here’s the Washington, DC veteran of more than 40 years, an energetic guy who has seen and done it all, a guy who spent 8 years as VP to Barack Hussein Obama his own self, a guy who would ride in on his unicorn and vanquish the Evil Orange Man, thus taking our nation back to the glory days of 1% economic growth and the EPA regulating our swimming pools.

But the reality of Joe Biden is something else entirely. The reality of Biden is a guy who can’t keep his hands off of women and children at public events, a guy who will be approaching octogenarian status by the time January 20, 2021 rolls around, a worn out old DC hack who can’t attract a crowd of more than a few hundred people to an event in Downtown Philly, a guy with a real record as long as his creepy fingers that is chock-full of statements and positions that offend pretty much every one of the aggrieved special interests that constitute the Democrat Party’s fragile voter coalition, and a guy who can’t even speak in complete, coherent sentences when not reading from a script.

This is a man who has to be carefully controlled and handled, obviously.

Biden’s massive team of handlers understand that the key to Joe Biden becoming president is to ensure that voters go to the polls to elect the idea of Joe Biden, because there is no way on God’s green earth – or I guess they would say Gaia’s green earth – that the American people are ever going to elect the reality of Joe Biden.

These advisors must look at the long series of debates and a long and arduous nominating run laid out before them as a field of land mines, a withering and daunting process that could see their candidate’s clownish mouth produce utter disaster with every successive step. So, yes, they are keeping their accident-waiting-to-happen candidate out of the public eye as much as possible right now. Best to go into that debate season next month with a lead in the polls and see how long they can hang onto it.

Thus, the Democrats go from Hiding Hillary to Hidin’ Biden.

Maybe someday the Party that saddled us with Woodrow Wilson and Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton and Barack Obama his own self will nominate a candidate it can actually be proud of. Wouldn’t that be a wonderful thing?

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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About That Biden “Surge” in the Polls…It Isn’t Happening

Today’s Campaign Update, Part II
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

When a “surge” is actually a durge. – As is always the case with the DC punditry these days, they’re wrong.

Over the past week, poll-watching pundits like Karl Rove and pretty much all the others have been marveling about Joe Biden’s “pop” or “surge” or whatever word you want to put to it – in the polls. Talking about him in a way that is clearly designed to make you think he is a virtual shoe-in to be the Democrat nominee in 2020, and a real, strong challenger to the re-election of President Donald Trump. The only problem with all of this is that it just isn’t happening. Take a look at this:

 

See that green line? That’s Joe Biden. It’s his average in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. See which way it has been heading over the past 10 days? Clue: it isn’t up. It isn’t a “pop.” It’s not a “surge.”

What that line actually represents is the inevitable: Biden’s precipitous plunge back earthwards as all the people in the Democrat voter base get a good gander at him and listen to the idiocy that pops out of his mouth and remember exactly who Joe Biden really is.

Who Joe Biden is, is a clown. A human gaffe machine. A guy who has no respect for the personal space of women and children. A guy who can’t keep his creepy hands to himself at public events. A guy who has been mucking around in the DC Swamp for 46 years; a guy who has a record as long as your arm and none of it is good.

That’s who Joe Biden is.

And so, the numbers plunge, and they will keep plunging until that gap between his green line and one of the other candidates’ line is gone. I figure that will happen along about October 1 or so, maybe sooner depending on how Biden performs in the early debates.

How fast is Biden falling? Good question. See that poll by The Hill, where Biden’s sitting at 33? Two weeks ago, right after his formal campaign kickoff, he was sitting at 46. That’s the most severe drop in any of them thus far, mainly because that 46 number is the highest Biden has achieved in any of the myriad polls.

In any event, you are best advised not to believe the media buzz that Biden’s the most likely Democrat nominee, for a variety of reasons.

His inherent goofiness as a human being is just one of them. His advanced age, which shows more and more every day, is another. But the main reason is the fact that the Democrats are awarding delegates in their primaries on a modified-proportional basis in all states this time, rather than a winner-take-all basis.

Any candidate winning at least 15% of the vote in a state primary will receive a share of the delegates. If only one candidate reaches that level, then it becomes winner-take-all. If no candidates receive 15% – which is entirely possible in some states with such a large field – then “the minimum to receive delegates will be 50% of the vote received by the front-runner.  For example, if candidate A wins with 10% of the vote, delegates will be allocated proportionately to anyone that receives 5% or more.”

With 25 candidates in the race and counting, this system is setting up a free-for-all in which it is very likely that the Democrats will show up to their national convention next summer without a clear nominee, and maybe without any candidate even coming close to that threshold.

What does that mean? A brokered convention, at which you could even end up with a nominee who did not run in the primaries.

Hey, which prominent, extremely ambitious Democrats are not announced candidates, but are rumored to be working towards that exact possibility as we speak?

What do you think Hillary Clinton is doing with her spare time?

I’m just sayin’.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Why Mayor Pete is More Likely to Become President Than Joe Biden

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Please note that headline says “Become President,” not “Become the Democrat Nominee in 2020.” – That’s a key distinction here, because Biden still does have a slightly better chance of being the party’s nominee, although even that edge is steadily declining and will continue to do so over the summer.

And this shouldn’t be just a comparison between Buttigieg and Biden. I would submit that Kamala Harris has a better shot at becoming president than Elizabeth Warren, and that even Irish Bob O’Rourke has a better shot at doing so than Cory Booker and everybody has a better chance than The Commie does.

Why? The first reason is simple. Because, as I wrote back on April 5, American voters don’t like electing Washington, DC long-timers to be their president.

Here’s what I wrote in that piece:

… since Biden first came to Washington, the American people have shown a very strong bias against electing “experienced” guys like him to serve in the presidency. Going back to the 1976 election, here is how many years’ experience in Washington DC our past seven presidents had when they got elected:

Jimmy Carter – 0

Ronald Reagan – 0

George H.W. Bush – roughly 20

Bill Clinton – 0

George W. Bush – 0

Barack Obama – 2

Donald Trump – 0

Combined, those seven presidents had about 22 years’ total experience in the DC Swamp, with Bush 41 having almost all of them. Bush 41, as we all remember, was defeated in 1992 by an outsider, Bill Clinton, who got a big assist from an even more authentic outsider, Ross Perot.

Are you seeing a trend here? I am.

Who are the “establishment” candidates in this race? Biden, The Commie, Fauxcahontas, Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Tim Ryan. While Biden, the Commie and Fauxcahontas are currently leading the polls for the nomination, the odds are heavily-stacked against any of these people being our president-elect come November 4, 2020.

Americans don’t want some crotchety old geezer who’s been ensconced in the DC swamp for 30+ years – or even 10 years – to be their national leader. If they did, Robert Dole and Walter Mondale and John Kerry and Al Gore and John McCain would have all served in the nation’s highest office over the past 30 years.

Yes, Harris is a senator, but she’s only been in that office a little over two years, same as Obama circa 2008. Yes, Irish Bob O’Rourke was in congress for 8 years, but he never did anything notable while there so nobody is really aware of his time in DC. Thus, both are viewed by the media and public through that same Obama “outsider” prism.

But back to the Biden/Buttigieg thing: The simple fact of the matter is that Buttigieg is a better, more effective candidate than Biden, and Biden knows it. Biden right now is riding the same wave of party establishment support that Jeb! was riding at this point in 2015. Well all know how that turned out.

Mayor Pete was all over the news yesterday because of the townhall he did on Fox News Sunday night, which was hosted by Chris Wallace. Conservatives complained all day Monday about Wallace’s softball conduct of the interview and the fact that Fox News chose to fill the venue with a pack of Buttigieg supporters, but so what?

The fact is that Buttigieg proved once again that he is an extremely composed and impressive public speaker, far moreso at age 37 than Creepy Sleepy Joe is at age 76. He is also very adept at fielding tough questions, as he proved back in March when Wallace peppered him with much tougher questions on Fox News Sunday. I was so impressed with Mayor Pete’s performance at that time that I tagged him as one of the real “Rising Stars” of this primary season.

Yes, most of what he says and thinks is batsh*t crazy. Yes, most of what he says is outright lies. But Buttigieg is, as one Democrat congressman said of Bill Clinton back in 1993, “an unusually good liar.” He says the crazy stuff he says with the conviction born of a true sociopath, which puts him in company with the last two Democrat presidents.

Contrast that with the likes of Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker, both of whom are also inveterate liars but who are both unusually bad at it. Come to think of it, Gore and Kerry were also unusually poor liars, as were Dole, Poppy Bush and McCain – it must have something to do with spending too much time in the nation’s capital.

And then there’s Biden, who has been lying about so many things for so long that they just pop right out of his mouth, but only in short, semi-literate bursts in which no sentence is ever completed. Biden’s like a guy with a case of political Tourette’s syndrome. Biden is fond of saying “I’m the guy that passed that [fill-in-the-blank] bill!” only the bills he talks about either don’t exist or were written by someone else. On Sunday, he went even further, claiming he was the guy who started the whole “Climate Change” thing back in 1987. Somewhere, Al Gore – who also didn’t invent this whole “Climate Change” thing but likes to claim he did – is saying “whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?”

But I digress. All the Democrat candidates lie about pretty much everything because they’re all leftwing hacks and that’s the only way leftists can win elections. It’s just a given. Democrat voters love to be lied to, and will generally end up nominating whichever candidate is the most effective liar of the bunch.

The key for Democrat voters in this cycle will be to nominate the best liar who is not a fossilized DC insider if they want to have any real shot at defeating President Trump. Because Americans innately understand that the DC establishment, regardless of party affiliation, is their true mortal enemy.

Many Americans have tired of all the uproar and chaos that they have seen since the election of Donald Trump, and would love for things to calm down after 2020. But are they likely to choose to replace a political outsider like Trump with a long-time establishment insider who will just return things to the status quo they rejected in 2016?

Nope.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Biden’s Fading, Beto’s Flailing, and DeBlasio’s Just Wasting Everyone’s Time

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

I know it’s a repugnant subject, but let’s talk Democrat politics this morning. – First, we’ve had Irish Bob O’Rourke re-boot his failed campaign this week, and boy what a massive fail that has been. As part of his “reintroduction to America”, he live-streamed himself having a haircut and massage! I swear I do not make this stuff up.:

Oh, he also appeared with the four nagging, substance-devoid shrews on The View, which I suppose meant that Tuesday’s episode of The View actually featured five nagging, substance-devoid shrews. There, he apologized for his being white, male and privileged, and the very next day he’s got a video up of him having a hair cut and massage.  Why do I get the feeling that, before the week is over, Irish Bob is going to announce that next week he will re-re-boot his failed campaign?

Here’s the amazing thing about that video: Some supposedly “professional” campaign advisors told Irish Bob that that was just a fab-o idea. Well, they probably didn’t use the term “fab-o” since they’re probably all under the age of 80 or so, but still.

Seriously, who in their right mind would think that this is a good look for their candidate? No wonder Donald Trump decided not to listen to such “professional” advisors during his 2015-16 campaign.

Speaking of truly awful political ideas… – Bill DeBlasio is now a candidate for president! Aren’t y’all thrilled out there in Flyover Country? Yeah, neither are the people whose lives he has helped to make miserable – the citizens of New York City – 76% of whom told a pollster this week that their communist Mayor really should not go down this road.

The James-Comey-tall Mayor first announced his candidacy at a Monday event Trump Tower, which some idiot told him was a very clever idea. That is, until he was mocked by protesters riding down the escalator behind him carrying pro-Trump signs. How is it that none of these campaign “professionals” thought that it might be a lousy idea to place their candidate in front of a public escalator?

The Marxist Mayor then traveled to Iowa for a kickoff rally. There, the people who printed the signage for the event misspelled his name as “DiBlasio”. Since only a few dozen showed for the event – and who knows how many of them could even read – it didn’t really much matter.

In any event, DeBlasio joins New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand as Empire State presidential candidates who have literally no rationale at all for entering this race. They will both leave the race without having won a single delegate to next year’s national convention.

Hey, there’s nobody in the field named George yet – maybe he should run, too! – Over in London, dimwitted actor George Clooney told the assembled press that “we are facing a pretty absurd time in our lives.” No word if he was referring to the 2020 Democrat presidential field, but he should have been.

The Biden Juggernaut is already fading. – When Joe Biden kicked off his campaign at the first of May, I told you that he would experience the best polling numbers of the entire campaign season in the first 2-3 weeks following his announcement. Sure enough, he did put up some phenomenal numbers in the first few polls issued early this month, rising to as high as 46% support in a poll put out by The Hill and 44% in the Harvard/Harris poll. Very impressive given the number of candidates in the field.

But very predictably, the bloom is already coming off the Biden rose, as the excitement among the deluded Democrat voter base fades and the reality of the energy-devoid, elderly candidate-who-has-been-wrong-about-everything-for-half-a-century sets in.

We’ve seen two new polls this week, and Biden is sub-40% in both, sitting at 39% in Morning Consult and 33% in the Emerson poll. The Emerson poll is the most current, having been conducted from May 10 through May 14.

Karl Rove, whose political analyses stopped being in any way relevant along about April of 2015, was on Fox News on Wednesday marveling at Biden’s 23-point lead over The Commie in the also no-longer-relevant RealClearPolitics average of polls, but that lead will be down to less than 10 in a month, and will be completely gone by October.

Joe Biden is this cycle’s Jeb! Bush, the guy with all the establishment support, a ton of money, zero energy and, at the end of the day, zero appeal to the people who actually vote in these nominating primaries. I still think his campaign ought to just start calling him Joe! and get it all over with.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

The Week in Review: What, Me Worry?

The Campaign Update Week in Review
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

[The week just past as chronicled on the @GDBlackmon Twitter feed.]

The week began with a perfect meme of fake conservative CNN commentator Anna Navarro sounding just like Joseph Goebbels. It only got better from there.

Jessica Fletcher accurately sums up our fake news media’s biased coverage of hostilities between Israel and Hamas, which were instigated entirely by Hamas, though you’d never know it from reading the Associated Press.

The Pantsuit Princess, who stole the 2016 Democrat nomination and coordinated with Barack Obama to try to steal the general election, was still running around claiming the election was stolen from her. Because projection is what Democrats do.:

Meanwhile, at the Met Gala in New York, they were rolling out the Coughing Crook’s new wardrobe as she preps her run for the 2020 nomination.:

Creepy Uncle Joe was fumbling through the Democrat Playbook in South Carolina, doing his best to scare the Black folks with the contemptible lie that Republicans want to “bring back Jim Crow” laws. *sigh*:

But hey, fumbling through the playbook got the old hack a big lead over the field, as The Commie and all the media’s “rising stars” tumbled around in his wake.:

Seriously, does anybody care?:

More layoffs were taking place at CNN, but no one who is actually responsible for the collapse of this fake news channels ratings will suffer.:

Rob Schneider proved that not everyone in the entertainment industry is a vain, vacuous nitwit.:

Former FBI official Kevin Brock summed up the precarious legal position of ex-FBI Director and current Teenage Drama Queen James Comey.:

Nancy Pelosi engages in outright seditionist speech on pretty much a daily basis now.:

No, seriously, what is it?:

True. But amazingly, he’s still not quite as dumb as Kirsten Gillibrand.:

CNN’s Royal Eunuch was shoved out in front of the cameras to assure all those CNN employees who’d just been laid off that they weren’t really laid off.:

Things were going so great with the economy and otherwise for President Donald Trump that the news-fakers at the New York Times decided they needed to reach into their bag of negative stuff and toss some of it out there. It didn’t work. It never does.:

Louisiana Senator John Kennedy was gettin’ real tired of James Comey’s bullshit.:

Greg Budell and I came up with a great new nickname for repugnant California Cong. Eric Swalwell: El Rey de las Gilipollas. Has a catchy ring to it. Swalwell’s so dumb he’ll probably take it as a compliment.:

Whenever she wasn’t talking sedition, San Fran Nan was talking gibberish. Sometimes, she did both at once.:

Jerrold Nadler said we are “in a constitutional crisis,” and it was obvious that everyone in the fake news media had gotten their daily DNC/Media Talking Points Memo well in advance.:

Meanwhile, ostensibly-Republican Senator Richard Burr was busy facilitating the Democrat Party’s ongoing efforts to destroy our country through the Senate Intelligence Committee, which he chairs.:

Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan nails it here.:

Measles epidemics were breaking out all over the world. Welcome to the joys of open borders, folks.:

Oily Rod Rosenstein finally left the Department of Justice this week. Never forget the truth about this skunk.:

If you missed this, you should read it now. Seriously, just read it.:

President Trump’s public approval ratings surged to an all-time high with so much #WINNING going on in our economy…:

…which had the fake news media in a bit of a panic.:

Rand Paul was not happy with Richard Burr. Not happy at all.:

If you don’t follow Titania McGrath on Twitter, you are really missing out.:

With Creepy Uncle Joe dominating the polls, it was a race to the bottom for the Democrat also-rans, never-weres and former “rising stars”.:

Could she take Juan Williams with her? Asking for a friend.:

The Teenage Drama Queen had himself a “townhall” show on CNN Thursday night. He’d have been better off huddling with his defense lawyers.:

Someone really should let the Teen Drama Queen know he has a right to remain silent.:

Jabba the Nadler announced on Friday that Robert Mueller would not be testifying before his Kangaroo Court Committee anytime soon. Most likely, Jabba is getting cold feet because he suddenly realized that Mueller would have to take questions from Republicans, too. That would not be a good thing for the Deep State Jabba is sworn to protect.:

Haven’t heard much from Ann Coulter lately – maybe this is why.:

If only it were true…:

Legend in her own mind Stacey Abrams – who continues to “identify” as the Governor of Georgia despite losing by 55,000 votes – took Trump Derangement Syndrome to new heights. You seriously cannot make this stuff up, folks.:

I never thought anyone could be more tiresome than John “Didja Know My Dad Was A Postman” Kasich. Bill Weld proved me wrong.:

The week ended with President Trump delivering another classic kill shot, this time at current media prom date Mayor Pete.:

No one who sees this mashup will ever be able to get it out of their mind.:

Image may contain: 1 person, smiling

 

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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