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American Political Revolutions Never Come Easy

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

This was never going to be easy. No political revolution ever progresses in a straight line. The American system – the Constitution itself – strongly agitates against rapid, radical political change of any kind.

In the first two years of the Barack Obama Administration, Americans saw rapid, radical political change and rebelled against it, turning the House over to Republicans in 2010 and then the Senate in 2014.  Americans again saw rapid, radical change over the past two years, as President Donald Trump reversed about 90% of the Obama era from the history books, and reacted last night by turning the House back to the Democrats.

This is not only nothing out of the ordinary, it is exactly how the nation’s founders consciously wanted the system to work. No one on either side has to like it, but it is important to recognize this reality of the American system and work to affect change within its confines.

So, just as happened in 2010, we end up with a split decision as the voters basically send a signal to Washington, D.C. to slow down. The country writ large isn’t necessarily opposed to the general direction things have been moving, but just wants to take more time to think about things before they happen.  This isn’t always a productive dynamic within the voting public, but we have no choice but to accept the verdict and move on.

In the House of Representatives, where I was hopeful that the Republicans would be able to retain a small majority, the Democrat gain will end up being around 30 net seats, perhaps a few more.  In the Senate, it’s most likely going to be 55 Republicans vs. 45 Democrats/Commies for the next two years, which is exactly where I had figured we’d end up since January.

The sad part of it all is that we will now get nothing out of the House of Representatives other than hearings and subpoenas and bombastic posturing by clowns like Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff for 24 solid months.  The good part of that is that those clowns and others will no doubt so disgust the voting public with their outrageous behavior that the voters will rebel again in 2020 and turn the House back over to the Republicans.  We can always hope, anyway.

The 55 seat majority in the Senate (which is what it will be whenever someone wakes up and declares McSally and Rosendale the winners in their races) means that Mitch McConnell no longer has to worry about getting Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski’s squish votes on every judicial nominee. And praise the lord, fellow squishes Jeff Flake and Bob Corker will no longer be around because they retired. What a relief that is.

Another blessing is that we Texans won’t have to hear any more nonsense about Beto O’Rourke.  Well, at least until January, that is, when he declares his candidacy for the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination, at which point he becomes the nation’s problem child. But everyone should be grateful to Ted Cruz for at least giving us a two month break.

Speaking of breaks, what is that new noise you are hearing from your radios and television sets this morning? Why, it’s the sound of non-political commercials! Isn’t that a joyful noise? Yes, I hate commercials as much as the next guy, but I have honestly missed them as the commercial breaks have been filled with nothing but negative political ads for the last two months.

In my home state of Texas, Republicans once again won every statewide election – as they have done in every cycle for the past quarter-century – but leaders of the Texas GOP will be waking up this morning with an uneasy feeling. While Governor Greg Abbott and a few other officeholders won their re-elections by the traditional double-digit margins, Cruz only prevailed against his well-funded opponent by 3% and several others, including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, saw their winning edges cut to 5%.

Yes, Irish Bob O’Rourke’s ability to pour $80 million of California/New York money into his race at the top of the ticket had a significant impact in races all the way up and down the ballot. But there is little question that Texas Repubs need to do some real soul-searching and find ways to broaden their appeal, particularly to middle-class suburban women and Hispanics if they want to retain their statewide dominance for the next decade or more.

Some other observations:

  • In conceding his very close loss to Ron DeSantis in Florida’s governor’s race, Democrat Andrew Gillum displayed a high degree of class and dignity that will help sustain him as a force in Florida poltics for years to come. We have not heard the last of this guy.
  • Unfortunately, Democrat Stacey Abrams, the Democrat candidate for Governor in Georgia, can’t summon those same qualities within herself and will keep her state in turmoil despite her obvious defeat.  Sad.
  • Back in Texas, Republican Dan Crenshaw, the Purple Heart veteran who was smeared by the sick people at Saturday Night Live over the weekend, won his race and will serve in the House of Representatives for the next two years.  There is still justice in this world, although you often have to look too hard to find it.
  • It is truly gratifying that Jon Tester, the Democrat slug who smeared Admiral Ronny Jackson, is dying this long, slow political death up there in Montana this morning. Couldn’t happen to a more rotten guy.
  • Nevada is officially a blue state now, and that is frightening. One wonders how long it will take the Democrats to completely screw up the state money printing machine that is Las Vegas. I give it a decade.
  • Scott Walker finally, at long last, lost an election in the blue state of Wisconsin, ending one of the most amazing political success stories of modern times. We haven’t heard the last of Walker.
  • Socialist dimwit Alexandria Ocasio Cortez won her race, and God bless the people of Queens for giving her to us to make fun of for the next two years.
  • Once again, CNN completely outclassed all other TV outlets with its election coverage.  John King is without question, far and away the best election night analyst in the known universe.  While Fox News was having a coffee chat session with a bunch of pundits, King and Wolf Blitzer were taking CNN’s viewers on constant whirlwind, county-by-county, sometimes precinct-by-precinct tours of myriad house, senate and gubernatorial races all over the country.  I won’t turn the channel over to CNN again before 2020, but when Election Night comes around that November, I’ll make an exception.

Finally, as I was wrapping this up, just a few moments ago, President Donald Trump (I never tire of typing those three glorious words) whipped this out to Twitter land:

If you thought the man was going to be intimidated by Speaker San Fran Nan or Bugeyes Adam Schiff, well, think again.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Open post

Live Blog: Election Day On Twitter – Data, Media Bias, Fun Stuff

The Campaign Update Election Day Preview Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

[Note:  I will be live-blogging election results on a new thread starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time.]

Check in here throughout the afternoon for further updates.

UPDATE @4:20 CT:

Ok, I’m going to close this one down right here.  Will start this evening’s open thread at 6:00 CT sharp – please join me and offer comments and information as you find it.  Thanks.

 

UPDATE @4:10 CT:

The folks at ZeroHedge.com have a really nice piece on when the polls in every state close and what to watch for when they do…

 

UPDATE @3:55 CT:

Not good news for Dean Heller out in Nevada…

UPDATE @3:10 CT:

Michael Newton with some more good early voting data…

 

UPDATE @2:20 CT: 

Nate Silver’s 538.com weighs in with its final “blue wave” prediction…

It’s fair to note that 538 also gave Hillary Clinton better than a 70% chance of winning the presidency on Election Day 2016.

538 also provides this interesting look-back at previous mid-term outcomes…

 

UPDATE @ 2:00 CT:

Final AZ early voting numbers are in, and they look good for McSally…

Michael Newton, who everyone would do well to follow on Twitter, makes a great point here…

Another tweeter everyone would to well to follow, au ng, has final Early Voting numbers from Florida, and again, they are very positive for the GOP…

 

UPDATE @12:30 CT:

Man, nobody would have ever guessed this would happen.  Oh, wait…

What?  Climate Change is not at the top of everyone’s mind today?  How can this be?

UPDATE @12:22 CT:  Trafalgar with some more final polls…

 

 

Noon, CT:  Let’s start with some key data points that have come across the @GDBlackmon Twitter feed today….

The Republican polling firm Trafalgar Group releases its final Florida poll this morning, and it is glorious if accurate:

Trafalgar was also the last firm to poll the Texas senate race…

Man, if this TargetSmart bunch has an accurate means of estimating early vote turnout, this is going to be an epic Red Wave.  TargetSmart, by the way, is a Democrat polling firm…

In Phoenix, Republicans are doing better in every city ward than they did in 2016. Bad news for nutjob Democrat Kyrsten Sinema…

This just happened in the world of media bias…

Ok, this is funny.  And sadly accurate…

 

That is all, for now.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Pro Tips for Election Night Results-Watching

The Evening Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

[I will be live-blogging the mid-term election results here starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time Tuesday.  Please join me in the comments section for tons of fun as the results either make me look like the smartest guy on the planet or a damn fool.  Could go either way.]

Some pro tips for Election Night Results-Watching:

  • We may have a very good idea on how the House balance of power will end up fairly early in the evening. – A large number of the “tossup” seats in this election are in closely-divided districts in Florida, Virginia, New York and Pennsylvania, all in the Eastern time zone.  So, by 8 p.m. Central Time, we should have a pretty good idea of what the trend in those districts is, or if there is no trend at all.
  • There aren’t many other key House districts in the Central or Mountain time zones. – Once you get out of the states on the Eastern Seaboard, you only have a handful of key House districts until you get to California, where the Democrats are heavily contesting 10 remaining GOP-held seats.  If the Ds haven’t clinched the majority in the House by the time polls close in California, it’s going to be a long night.  If they have, the state loses its importance in the grand scheme of things, though it will still be interesting to see if Rs like Dana Rohrabacher can hang in there for one more term in office.
  • If the House goes early, the Senate probably will, too. – Here is where Florida is such a key.  The Republicans are going to end up at least 60,000 votes ahead of 2016 in the early voting results.  Trump won Florida by 117,000 votes in 2016, so if you add 60,000 to that, you get a fairly high hill for incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson to climb in his run for re-election against sitting GOP Governor Rick Scott.  If we see Scott losing this race by, say, 5% or more when the early returns come in, then that will likely mean it’s going to be along night for the GOP.  If we see Scott keeping it closer than that in the early returns, that means good news for Republicans is probably going to be coming in all night long.
  • Georgia’s governor’s race is also key. – This race shouldn’t be as close as the polls claim it is.  If the early returns show a neck-and-neck race here, then you can probably expect a pretty late night overall.
  • Don’t be surprised if Irish Bob O’Rourke leads Ted Cruz early in Texas. – The major metro areas in Texas lean Democrat as a whole, and their returns always come in earlier than the rural counties.  Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by ~160,000 votes when the early voting was reported at 7:00 by the Secretary of State’s office.  But then the rural counties started to come in and that more than reversed.  In total, rural Texas went for Trump by more than 1 million votes in 2016.  Expect to see a similar dynamic in this race.
  • Ignore leaked “exit polls.” – At some point around mid-day, one more more major media outlets will report on “leaked” exit poll information showing Democrats well ahead and moving towards their long-coveted “blue wave.”  Ignore those reports.  First of all, these “exit polls” are commissioned by those same damn media outlets, and the “leaks” are designed to depress GOP turnout on Election Day.  They’ve been playing this despicable game since 2000.  The good news is, it never works.
  • It’s Ok to watch CNN. – Aside from the obvious benefits of seeing all the long faces over there if the Republicans have a good night, John King was actually much better and more even-handed at reporting on results and trends than anyone else on Election Night 2016.  Fox News was actually the worst place to be on Election Night 2016, as they focused far more on giving everyone with a contributor contract time to weigh in on stuff they know nothing about than on actually reporting on election results.  Thus, Fox News was among the last to recognize the reality that Trump was actually about to win.
  • Whenever Juan Williams or Shep Smith appear on your TV screen, change channels. – Trust me, it’s better for your blood pressure.
  • Pace yourself on your favorite beverage. – Don’t hit the juice too hard early, because it could be a long night, just like 2016.  And don’t break out the champagne too early like all the Democrats did two years ago – it’ll go flat in just a few hours, and that’s never good.

Personally, I’ll be drinking Tito’s and Topo Chico with a twist of lime and a couple of cubes of sugared ginger root – my own personal Texas Mule recipe.  If Florida goes bad early, that’ll probably start showing up in my updates around 8:30 Central Time.

Be careful out there.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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