Today’s Campaign Update, Part II
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)
Hey, remember when Joe Biden’s rationale for running was that he would be the moderate who would appeal to independent voters? – Yeah, that’s all gone now. I’ve told you all along that Joe Biden will not – cannot – be the 2020 nominee for the Democrat Party, and this was the week in which he sealed his own fate.
Honestly, it was inevitable. This man is a dinosaur trying to compete in a modern age with which he is totally unfamiliar. He’s like Phil Hartman’s genius “Un-Frozen Caveman Lawyer” SNL character, an ancient throwback to a time long past who is always confused and frightened by our modern ways and customs. More specifically, Biden is confused and frightened by the ways and customs of his Party’s modern-day voter base, pretty much all of which lies to the left of Fidel Castro and, where abortion is concerned, Margaret Sanger.
Not surprisingly at all, Biden got all caught up in abortion politics this week, and the outcome destroyed the entire rationale for his candidacy to begin with. Margaret Sanger, the founder of Planned Parenthood, wanted all abortions to be legal as a means of controlling America’s black population. Today’s Democrat Party voter base fully endorses Sanger’s beliefs – abortions kill a far higher percentage of African American babies than those of any other segment of U.S. society – but takes it a step farther, to allowing babies born alive after attempted abortions to be left on a table to die.
This is what Democrat politicians refer to as a woman’s right to “healthcare.” You betcha.
Biden, a life-long practicing Catholic, has always supported the Hyde Amendment, a policy which prevents Americans of actual religious faith from having to pay for abortions through their tax dollars. That is, until this week, when the subject was raised. When Biden reasserted his Hyde support, the SJWs in the social media universe went berserk, and almost frightened the eldery man out of what little hair he has remaining.
Less than 24 hours later, Biden gave up, fully endorsing his party’s baby-killing at all costs ways.
Poof! No more reason for Creepy Uncle Joe to be in the race. If Biden’s going to be just another Commie, baby-killing hack, why, the rest of the field is filled to the gills with younger, more attractive, more female and more minority versions of that.
So, again, as I’ve said all along, Biden will not be the nominee. His polling lead will have evaporated by October – really, by September at this rate – and he will leave the race shortly after he fails to win Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina. Which means March. He is this cycle’s Jeb!, but he just hasn’t realized it yet.
Elsewhere in the race, things remained pretty static. Bernie the Commie remains ensconced in second place in every poll, though his numbers keep slowly declining as the numbers for Fauxcahontas keep creeping up. Every Democrat nominating race is always won by the best liar, and little Lieawatha was just born to lie. So she is now firmly in third place with a slow-moving bullet.
Kamala Harris is going nowhere fast, and seems to have no idea of how to change that dynamic. She is just a very poor candidate, which is not surprising given the unseemly manner in which she advanced herself to the Senate in the first place. Mayor Pete has also stagnated after having received tens of millions in free media from our fake news outlets, and may have reached the peak of his popularity already. Irish Bob O’Rourke, fresh off of his utterly-failed effort to reboot his campaign, is simply dead in the water.
In fact, the entire field has stagnated at this point, as the fake news media flails about trying to decide which of them will be promoted next, and I suspect that will remain the state of play until the debates begin in a few weeks.
Here is a prediction I will make when that season comes around: The only actually interesting candidate in the race, Tulsi Gabbard, will really stand out on the debate stage. She will then likely become the media’s next “rising star” obsession.
What do I mean by “interesting candidate”? I mean that Gabbard, like Donald Trump in 2016, will stand out on a debate stage because she will be the only person on the stage saying what she truly believes, rather than just reciting a bunch of talking points scripted for her by other people. That was the real reason why Trump ended up becoming the GOP nominee, because most ordinary Americans are sick to death of watching politicians recite talking points. Like Trump, Gabbard tends to directly answer the questions posed to her, and does it in plain language most people can understand.
So, expect her to really stand out among the clutter of political hackery that will surround her on that debate stage. As a woman and minority, Gabbard also has some of the identity politics attributes valued by shallow Democrat voters. She is not, however, a particularly good liar, so while she will likely get a boost out of the debates, she cannot become the eventual nominee.
I had previously thought that Andrew Yang might do similarly well in the debates, but he has completely succumbed to the bad advice from professional communications “experts.” So he sounds no different than Kirsten Gillibrand or Kamala Harris these days. Not a recipe for winning if you are, like Yang, an insurgent candidate looking to stand out in a crowd.
The only other candidate I’d expect to perhaps get a boost out of the early debates would be Texas’s Julian Castro, the only actual Hispanic candidate in the race. Castro is a very smart guy and a very polished speaker. But again, not an especially convincing liar, which will really harm him with Democrat voters.
So right now we are just kind of stuck in a holding pattern until the debates get started. That’s when things will really start to get interesting.
Here are my initial odds on the race, which I plan to update weekly:
Anyone Else – Even
Hillary Clinton – 5 to 1
Joe Biden – 100 to 1
Bernie the Commie – 20 to 1
Elizabeth Warren – 6 to 1
Kamala Harris – 12 to 1
Mayor Pete – 50 to 1
Irish Bob – 1,000 to 1
Spartacus – 20 to 1
Tulsi Gabbard – 50 to 1
Julian Castro – 50 to 1
Kirsten Gillibrand – 6 million to 1
Amy Klobuchar – 1,000 to 1
Bill DeBlasio – Infinity to 1
The rest of the declared field – 100 to 1
That is all.
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