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Just Another Day of Democrats Stealing Elections in America

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Why do we have to be this crazy? – Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is “back up and working” according to a relative after taking a fall and breaking three ribs early Thursday morning. That’s good news for the 85 year-old Ginsburg, and something every thinking American should be happy about.

But of course, that’s never the case on Twitter, where some right-wing idiots responded to the news that she was in the hospital with glee over the prospect of yet another Supreme Court nomination for President Donald Trump. C’mon, people.

Meanwhile, left-wing nuts kept the operators and security guards at Ginsburg’s hospital busy by calling and showing up with offers to donate their ribs and even vital organs to keep the octagenarian alive and working. These ghouls believe it is Ginsburg’s solemn duty to remain on the court until 2025, when she would be 92, if necessary in order to deny President Trump the opportunity to name her replacement.

Supreme Court appointments are supposed to be lifetime appointments, not life sentences, folks. And to you right-wing nuts, it really is fine to hope Ginsburg decides to retire soon and enjoy life a little bit in her latter years, but it really isn’t ok to hope she dies.

My goodness.

And just like that, Broward County was suddenly finished “finding” fake ballots. – As news spread yesterday that Democrat officials in Broward and Palm Beach Counties of Florida were up to their old tricks and attempting to steal the U.S. Senate and governor’s races there, Governor Rick Scott – who happens to be the legitimate winner in the Senate race – made the decision to send state law enforcement officials in to clean up the mess.

Miraculously, just minutes after the law enforcement officials had arrived, Broward’s despicably corrupt elections supervisor, Brenda Snipes, suddenly announced she and her evil minions were done counting ballots.

There are still several thousand military and overseas ballots outstanding that have until November 16 to show up and be counted, but with state law enforcement supervising the process and both Scott and Republican Governor-elect Ron DeSantis still holding sizable leads, there is no chance of these two outlaw counties reversing the legitimate decision made by the voters.

Thanks to the likely illegal votes already counted in Broward and Palm Beach, however, both races are now within the .5% margin that triggers automatic recounts under Florida law.  Thus, the nation will be treated to yet another fake news media circus thanks to rampant voter fraud operations by the Democrats in South Florida. These people make Lyndon Johnson and George Parr look like rank amateurs.

Meanwhile, out in Arizona… – Speaking of Democrats trying to steal elections, post-election day counting in Maricopa and Yuma Counties in Arizona miraculously “found” enough votes to change Republican Martha McSally’s 17,000 vote “win” into a 9,000 vote deficit to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema on Thursday as the Republican governor there did nothing to intervene in the process.  But don’t give up hope yet- there are reports that the remaining ballots left to be counted over the next few days are largely from areas that are normally Republican precincts.  Of course, unless state law enforcement is called in to supervise the process, those Republican-leaning areas have a way of turning into Democrat-leaning areas.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

And in Georgia, the peach still hasn’t conceded. – Ultra-leftist Democrat Stacey Abrams, who has lost the governor’s race to Republican Brian Kemp by more than 73,000 votes, still refuses to concede in the hopes that Democrat election officials can follow the lead of Broward County and “find” boxes mysteriously filled with votes overwhelmingly cast in her favor. Unless state officials there intercede, don’t be too surprised if that happens.  These people are soulless ghouls and will do anything to “win.”

Speaking of Lyndon Johnson and George Parr… – By the time the mysterious “Box 13” was “discovered” by election officials in Jim Wells County, Texas (not in Duval County, as is often misstated) to give that 1948 Democrat senate primary race to the man who would go onto become a president, President Harry Truman – himself a Democrat – had sent in FBI agents to begin an investigation at the request of Texas Governor Coke Stevenson, also a Democrat.

While it is probably premature to make any such move related to the shenanigans going on in Arizona and Georgia, the situation with utterly corrupt election officials in Palm Beach, Broward and several other counties in Florida has become so outrageous that it really does seem as if federal oversight would be appropriate. Every election cycle, we end up with a situation in which these Democrat-run counties are in violation of Florida’s law requiring votes to be counted and submitted within 48 hours of the polls having closed on election day. This does not happen in any Republican-run part of the state, or in some Democrat parts of the state, like Miami-Dade County.

Of course, the problem here is that the FBI was itself so utterly corrupted during the Obama years that we can’t be sure federal agents would do anything effective to stop the fraud. In any event, it is crystal clear we simply cannot trust any vote count coming from these Florida counties and many other Democrat-run areas of the country, and that is a blot on the legitimacy of our entire system.

Voter fraud is real, it is rampant, and it is exclusively a Democrat-run monopoly.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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Trump Lowers the Boom on Sessions Even Before the Votes Were Counted

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

Hey, guess who’s back? – Anitfa, which is nothing more than the militant arm of the Democrat Party, had had its activities suspended in the run-up to the election, probably on orders from Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi.  Now that the election has come and gone, orders have gone out for this bunch of brain-dead cretins to resume their previous assaults around the country.  Isn’t that great?

So, last night, a group of them assembled on the front yard of Fox News host Tucker Carlson and chanted threats at him and his family – which includes small children – for an hour or so. Such admirable people.  Never forget that they are bought and paid for by the Democrat Party. We have to stop letting the politicians off the hook for this anti-American nonsense.

Speaking of leftist radicals assaulting innocent people… – CNN Democrat activist with a press pass Jim Acosta doesn’t have his press pass anymore.  At least from the White House, which revoked the fake reporter’s press badge after he made a complete ass of himself at a Presidential press conference Wednesday morning, and assaulted a young female White House intern in the process.

The intern, who was just trying to do her job after President Trump instructed her to take the microphone from Acosta, received an Austin Powers-caliber karate chop from Acosta for her troubles.  Were Acosta a reporter for a conservative news outlet, the #MeToo gang would have descended on him like a pack of hyenas, but because he works for CNN, there has been radio silence from that corner of the liberal universe.

CNN, meanwhile, spent much of the rest of its day lying to its audience with carefully-edited video that had Acosta’s assault removed out of it.  Because, of course they did.

But it’s not just Acosta – there is a larger problem here. If you watched that press conference – where the President spent well over an hour fielding 68 mostly-hostile questions from 35 fake reporters – you saw a security problem. With only a few exceptions, you saw a group of at least 60 individuals who literally hate the man they were interviewing. These are people who are enemies of the White House – they are there doing nothing but attempting to damage this presidency. They are agents for the opposition, Democrat activists with press passes, nothing more.

I’ve argued for more than a year and a half now that the White House should end the thing called the “White House press corps”, and deny them access to the White House grounds for security reasons. It is only a matter of time before one of these preening, entitled peacocks goes completely off the hook and assaults Sarah Sanders or even the President.

Any president of either party has an obligation to keep the public informed of his actions and the actions of his Administration, and in today’s age of miraculous technology there are myriad means of getting that done. No president has the slightest obligation to allow a pack of agents for the opposition to have unfettered access to the White House grounds on a daily basis. That’s actually an act of insanity.

Suspending Acosta’s press badge is a good start, but that is all it is. Sadly, the action will probably be reversed today, and the insanity will continue until somebody really gets hurt.

Well, that didn’t take long. – Less than an hour after his meeting with the “press” had concluded, President Donald Trump fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions. This is no surprise, although no one had expected it to happen before all the votes from the mid-terms had been counted. Now we will see if Mr. Trump can hire someone into the job who actually wants to do it. Sessions, sadly, obviously didn’t.

Sessions’ Chief of Staff, former U.S. Attorney Matthew Whitaker, will become acting Attorney General until a permanent replacement is nominated and confirmed by the Senate. Whitaker also now assumes oversight of Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his merry gang of Clinton/Obama hacks. This is interesting, since Whitaker has been publicly outspoken in his belief that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein has been negligent in his duty to ensure Mueller remained focused on the supposed scope of his investigation, rather than going off on all sorts of tangents as Mueller has clearly done.

Democrats and their agents in the fake news media naturally reacted with joint talking points that would make ordinary citizens believe that, once appointed, a Special Counsel has a lifetime appointment with unlimited scope and powers, because of course they did. Lying is what these people do for a living, after all. New York Congressman Jerrold Nadler, who will become the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee in the new congress come January, threatened to impeach the President should he make a move to fire Mueller, as did Chuck Schumer and other Democrats.

The President is not going to fire Robert Mueller. That’s not going to happen. Mueller has in fact clearly been in the process of winding his operation down over the past few months, and will most likely be issuing a final report sometime in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, the President probably is going to fire Rosenstein, who is clearly a deep state functionary, and we should expect that to happen quite soon, maybe before the week is out. We should also expect the President to declassify a whole raft of key documents once that firing has been carried out. We should then expect the declassification of those documents to lead to a major, final house-cleaning at the Department of Justice, where more than 25 deep state players have already been removed over the past year.

After all of that has happened, prosecutions will finally begin.  That is how this is all probably going to go, and no set of joint talking points recited by Democrats and their fake news media agents is going to stop it.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

American Political Revolutions Never Come Easy

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

This was never going to be easy. No political revolution ever progresses in a straight line. The American system – the Constitution itself – strongly agitates against rapid, radical political change of any kind.

In the first two years of the Barack Obama Administration, Americans saw rapid, radical political change and rebelled against it, turning the House over to Republicans in 2010 and then the Senate in 2014.  Americans again saw rapid, radical change over the past two years, as President Donald Trump reversed about 90% of the Obama era from the history books, and reacted last night by turning the House back to the Democrats.

This is not only nothing out of the ordinary, it is exactly how the nation’s founders consciously wanted the system to work. No one on either side has to like it, but it is important to recognize this reality of the American system and work to affect change within its confines.

So, just as happened in 2010, we end up with a split decision as the voters basically send a signal to Washington, D.C. to slow down. The country writ large isn’t necessarily opposed to the general direction things have been moving, but just wants to take more time to think about things before they happen.  This isn’t always a productive dynamic within the voting public, but we have no choice but to accept the verdict and move on.

In the House of Representatives, where I was hopeful that the Republicans would be able to retain a small majority, the Democrat gain will end up being around 30 net seats, perhaps a few more.  In the Senate, it’s most likely going to be 55 Republicans vs. 45 Democrats/Commies for the next two years, which is exactly where I had figured we’d end up since January.

The sad part of it all is that we will now get nothing out of the House of Representatives other than hearings and subpoenas and bombastic posturing by clowns like Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff for 24 solid months.  The good part of that is that those clowns and others will no doubt so disgust the voting public with their outrageous behavior that the voters will rebel again in 2020 and turn the House back over to the Republicans.  We can always hope, anyway.

The 55 seat majority in the Senate (which is what it will be whenever someone wakes up and declares McSally and Rosendale the winners in their races) means that Mitch McConnell no longer has to worry about getting Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski’s squish votes on every judicial nominee. And praise the lord, fellow squishes Jeff Flake and Bob Corker will no longer be around because they retired. What a relief that is.

Another blessing is that we Texans won’t have to hear any more nonsense about Beto O’Rourke.  Well, at least until January, that is, when he declares his candidacy for the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination, at which point he becomes the nation’s problem child. But everyone should be grateful to Ted Cruz for at least giving us a two month break.

Speaking of breaks, what is that new noise you are hearing from your radios and television sets this morning? Why, it’s the sound of non-political commercials! Isn’t that a joyful noise? Yes, I hate commercials as much as the next guy, but I have honestly missed them as the commercial breaks have been filled with nothing but negative political ads for the last two months.

In my home state of Texas, Republicans once again won every statewide election – as they have done in every cycle for the past quarter-century – but leaders of the Texas GOP will be waking up this morning with an uneasy feeling. While Governor Greg Abbott and a few other officeholders won their re-elections by the traditional double-digit margins, Cruz only prevailed against his well-funded opponent by 3% and several others, including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, saw their winning edges cut to 5%.

Yes, Irish Bob O’Rourke’s ability to pour $80 million of California/New York money into his race at the top of the ticket had a significant impact in races all the way up and down the ballot. But there is little question that Texas Repubs need to do some real soul-searching and find ways to broaden their appeal, particularly to middle-class suburban women and Hispanics if they want to retain their statewide dominance for the next decade or more.

Some other observations:

  • In conceding his very close loss to Ron DeSantis in Florida’s governor’s race, Democrat Andrew Gillum displayed a high degree of class and dignity that will help sustain him as a force in Florida poltics for years to come. We have not heard the last of this guy.
  • Unfortunately, Democrat Stacey Abrams, the Democrat candidate for Governor in Georgia, can’t summon those same qualities within herself and will keep her state in turmoil despite her obvious defeat.  Sad.
  • Back in Texas, Republican Dan Crenshaw, the Purple Heart veteran who was smeared by the sick people at Saturday Night Live over the weekend, won his race and will serve in the House of Representatives for the next two years.  There is still justice in this world, although you often have to look too hard to find it.
  • It is truly gratifying that Jon Tester, the Democrat slug who smeared Admiral Ronny Jackson, is dying this long, slow political death up there in Montana this morning. Couldn’t happen to a more rotten guy.
  • Nevada is officially a blue state now, and that is frightening. One wonders how long it will take the Democrats to completely screw up the state money printing machine that is Las Vegas. I give it a decade.
  • Scott Walker finally, at long last, lost an election in the blue state of Wisconsin, ending one of the most amazing political success stories of modern times. We haven’t heard the last of Walker.
  • Socialist dimwit Alexandria Ocasio Cortez won her race, and God bless the people of Queens for giving her to us to make fun of for the next two years.
  • Once again, CNN completely outclassed all other TV outlets with its election coverage.  John King is without question, far and away the best election night analyst in the known universe.  While Fox News was having a coffee chat session with a bunch of pundits, King and Wolf Blitzer were taking CNN’s viewers on constant whirlwind, county-by-county, sometimes precinct-by-precinct tours of myriad house, senate and gubernatorial races all over the country.  I won’t turn the channel over to CNN again before 2020, but when Election Night comes around that November, I’ll make an exception.

Finally, as I was wrapping this up, just a few moments ago, President Donald Trump (I never tire of typing those three glorious words) whipped this out to Twitter land:

If you thought the man was going to be intimidated by Speaker San Fran Nan or Bugeyes Adam Schiff, well, think again.

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog [Update 15]

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

 

Ok, folks, here we go.

Unlike I did this afternoon, I am going to run the Updates down the page, to keep them from getting mixed up with all the adds.  I will note each update with a number in the title, i.e., I will add “Update 1” to the title with the first update, “Update 2” with the 2nd, etc., so you’ll be able to easily know when something new is there.  I’ll also send out a tweet for those who follow on Twitter.

PLEASE COMMENT – I will be following your comments and responding to as many as I can.

What to look for early:

Kentucky HD 6 and Georgia HD 6 – if the Rs are leading in both these GOP-held districts when the polls close at 7:00 ET, it’s cause for celebration.  If the Ds are ahead, not so much.  Unless you’re a Democrat, of course.

Trump won both of these districts easily in 2016, but the Democrats have spent tons of money trying to turn them both.

Also, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th district.  That’s another the Ds are hoping to turn tonight.

If the Ds are winning in all of these districts, then their probability of taking the House becomes near-certain.  If they are losing them all, then we’re going to have a late night, perhaps early morning before we know where things are going.

Indiana Senate – We will also be seeing first numbers in this race at 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT.  It’s a big one, though not needed for the GOP to retain control in the Senate.  CNN’s already reporting what is most likely the absentee ballots, and Republican Braun is up big over Democrat incumbent Donnelly, but the Rs always lead in the absentee votes in Indiana.

We’ll see.

Back shortly.

UPDATE 15:  Every candidate Barack Obama campaigned for lost.

Both candidates Oprah campaigned for lost.

Republicans once again won every statewide election in Texas, as they have done in every election cycle since 1994.

Mike DeWine won the governor’s election in Ohio, fairly easly.

Fox News finally, at long last, called the Florida senate race for Rick Scott.

Kristie Noem just won the South Dakota governor’s race.

Scott Walker is neck and neck in his race in Wisconsin with 90% of the vote in.

Martha McSally leads in AZ over the despicable Kyrstin Sinema, but not safely yet.  She should be ok, though, since the majority of the remaining uncounted votes are in Maricopa County, where Trump won fairly easily in 2016.

Colorado Prop 112 went down to resounding defeat, ending an effort to destroy the oil and gas industry in that state.

Matt Rosendale continues to winnow down Jon Tester’s lead in Montana, where only about 30% of the votes have been counted thus far.  Gianforte has now assumed the lead in the House race, and will likely hold onto it.

As I close this down for tonight, it appears that the Democrats will end up with about 230 seats in the U.S. house to about 205 for the Republicans.

In the senate, it appears likely the Republicans will end up with 54-56 seats come January, depending on the outcomes in AZ, NV and MT.  I think the Rs end up winning AZ and MT and losing NV, and end up with exactly the 55 I have been predicting since January.

That’s enough.  Good night.

 

 

 

UPDATE 14:  Fox New is projecting Hawley will defeat McCaskill, which is a big dose of justice.

John James has to his great credit made it a real race with the execrable Debbie Stabenow, but he is probably going to come up short.  Sure wish President Trump had chosen to make a stop in Michigan over this past weekend.  Missed opportunity there.

Andrew Gillum actually conceded the race in Florida.  I fully expected him to mount a challenge.  Good for him – that shows class.

For some reason, the Senate race in Florida remains un-called.  I’ll call it – Rick Scott has won.

Juan Williams is making an ass of himself on Fox – time to change channels.

McSally continues to build a lead in AZ.  Cool

In Texas House races, both Pete Sessions and John Culberson were defeated, largely because they both ran horrible campaigns.  In Sessions’ case, at least he can point to an opponent who ran a great race:  Colin Allred.  Allred is a complete leftist nutjob, but he ran a terrific, positive campaign and Sessions ran some of the worst TV ads I’ve ever seen.

In Montana, Tester continues to lead Rosendale, but the gap is closing.  Still no returns in from most of the rural areas of the state.  Gianforte is about to overtake Kathleen Williams in the house race there.

 

UPDATE 13:  Fox 13 in Tampa is finally calling the FL governor’s race for DeSantis.  Fox, CNN, AP holding out.  Why, I’m not sure.  The Senate race should also be called for Rick Scott.

McSally now out to a bit of a lead over the execrable Sinema in AZ.

Tester leading Rosendale, but it is very early in MT, with none of the rural counties out there reporting yet. Gianforte also behind in the House race there, but again, it’s very early.

Hawley still whipping McCaskill, which is totes awesome.

Nevada polls close at 10:00 CT.  I’m not feeling good about Heller.  We’ll see.

 

UPDATE 12:  Politico has just called the Texas Senate race for Ted Cruz.  CNN is calling it, too.  And now Jake Tapper is encouraging Irish Bob to run for president.

*sigh*

And yes, I’m watching CNN, because Fox is just a bunch of windbags pontificating.  CNN has actual county-by-county analysis.  C’mon, Fox, catch up here.

As expected, the early vote in the AZ senate race is very tight, with Sinema holding about a 1% lead over McSally.  McSally needs to win the Election Day vote.

CNN just called ND senate race for Kevin Cramer.

Josh Hawley is sucking wind early against McCaskill in Missouri.  That one surprises me.  Not sure where those returns are from yet.

[Ooops, I was actually looking at old numbers in the MO race – Hawley is actually kickin butt there.  Awesome.]

Depending on AZ/NV, the Rs will have somewhere between 53-56 senate seats next session.  Cool.

 

UPDATE 11:  Scott Walker has pulled into the lead in Wisconsin!

Kemp still killing Abrams in Georgia.

Not sure why no one has called the FL gov race for DeSantis – he has won.

Scott’s race is somewhat closer with Nelson, but he appears to have an insurmountable lead as well given that 99% of the vote is now counted.  Just not enough votes left for the Ds.

Chris Kobach has lost the governor’s race in Kansas.  It will truly suck to have a Dem governor there for the next four years.

Cruz’s lead now at 85k with still ~50 rural counties yet to report a vote.  What we have to remember is that the first 4 million or so votes reported tonight in Texas were early votes.  As the Election Day vote comes in, Cruz’s lead will continue to expand.

CNN now calling the House Majority for the Ds.

Ugh.

 

UPDATE 10:  Cruz now down by 21k, still ~100 rural counties have yet to report.

Brian Kemp is killing Stacey Abrams in Georgia’s gubernatorial race.

Brat is losing VA 7.

Democrat McBath is leading Repub Handel in GA 6, where we finally have early votes reported.

Afraid the house is indeed gone.  Dammit.

On the bright side, DeSantis and Scott are both going to win in Florida.  That’s huge.

And finally, as I was typing this update, Cruz took the lead in Texas despite a big chunk of Houston’s votes coming in.  His lead will probably expand the rest of the evening.  But you have to give Irish Bob credit for making him sweat with his $80 million.

 

UPDATE 9:  DeSantis and Scott are now likely to both win in Florida.  What an amazing turnaround.

Braun has won Indiana.

Blackburn has won Tennessee.

Manchin has won WVA.

Kramer will win North Dakota.

John James is competing strongly in Michigan.

Cruz is 100k votes down but there are still over 100 rural counties who have not reported any votes at all to this point.  Karl Rove says Cruz will win in the end because of that.  I think Rove is right.

Right now, the Ds lead in 31 Red districts, the Rs lead in 5 Blue districts, and Fox News is now projecting the Democrats will gain a majority at the end of the evening.

We’ll see.  I’m not convinced yet.

UPDATE 8:  Barr has won KY 6.  Brat is barely behind know in VY 7.  If Brat can come back, that would be huge.  Still a big fat ZERO votes counted in GA 6.

Both Republicans are still holding on in Florida’s statewide races with 96% of the vote counted, and it appears that the votes still outstanding are pretty evenly split between R and D areas of the state.  Holy cow.

Cruz still a little behind in Texas, but most rural areas are still yet to report.

In Tennessee, the senate race is not close at this point, but will tighten as the night goes along.  But I think Blackburn wins that one.  [Fox just called it for Marsha!]

DeWine now in the lead in the Ohio governor’s race!

Braun still killing it in Indiana!

Kramer’s going to kill Heitcamp!

John James actually leading in the early Michigan returns.

This night is shaping up nicely, folks.  Keep the faith.

 

UPDATE 7:  I continue to be struck how much tonight is like 2016, especially in Florida statewide races.  Here we sit again with 93% of the votes counted, and the races are too close to call.  In 2016, everyone assumed all the outstanding votes were in the Miami/Broward area and Trump would lose.  But it turned out that there were still a bunch of votes sitting uncounted in GOP areas, and in a bunch of GOP-leaning precincts in South Florida.  Trump wins.

Cruz finally takes the lead in Texas, as the early vote returns start to finally come in from rural areas.  He will continue to build that lead as the night goes on.

Right now, I have to say that things are stacking up pretty nicely for the Rs.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

UPDATE 6:  Ok, things are starting to shape up now:

– Cruz is going to win by 8-10 points, based on what we are seeing early.  Cool.

– Both DeSantis and Scott have now moved into leads in their races.  But most of the outstanding votes are in Miami/Broward area.  You have to think the Ds will win, but we thought the same in the 2016 presidential race, too.

– Barr is building his lead in KY 6.

– Bratt is holding on in VA 7.  Most remaining votes are in R areas.

– Braun still killing it in Indiana.

– Still not a damn vote in in GA 6.  Unreal.

– Despicable Donna Shalala has won FL 27, a Democrat pickup.  Ugh.

 

UPDATE 5:  Barr now dead even in KY 6, Brat has fallen behind, though just by a couple thousand votes.  Still nothing on GA 6.  What the hell?

Oops, Barr took the lead with 77% of the vote counted just as I hit “enter” on this update.

DeSantis now within 1.2%, Scott within 1.4% in Florida, as the Panhandle votes finally start coming in.  Still lots of votes outstanding in Miami/Dade, though, too, though.  No way to call those races yet.

Again, it’s 2016 all over again down there.

Braun retaining a strong lead on Donnelly, but he needs it for when Indiana’s larger cities start reporting votes later tonight.

Irish Bob O’Rourke is up early over Ted Cruz, but it’s just Dallas turning in its early vote totals.  No worries, yet.

 

UPDATE 4:  Brat now moving out to a significant lead in VA7.  Barr has pulled within .3% in KY 6, still tons of votes to be counted.

The FL Gov and Sen races are tightening with every update.  Nelson had led by as much as 6% but now up by 2.  Gillum up by just 1.6.

Nothing in from GA 6 yet, unfortunately.

This feels an awful lot like 2016, doesn’t it?  Yes, it does.

 

UPDATE 3:  Brat now actually looking ok in early returns, which are most likely from urban areas.  He’ll be stronger in the suburbs and rural areas.

Braun running much stronger against Donnelly right now in rural areas than expected.  Well ahead of pace so far.

Can’t help noticing that CNN goes to their black anchor person every time there’s an update to be given on the Florida and Georgia governor’s races, both of which feature black candidates for the Ds.  So damn ridiculous.

The encouraging thing about Florida right now is that, even though the Rs trail in the Gov and Sen races, votes are already coming in from Miami/Dade County, which is unusual.

In KY 6, D McGrath is now well ahead of R Barr.  Ugh.  Still early, though, and don’t know where the votes are from yet.

 

UPDATE 2:  Ok, it’s time to say it:  CNN just kicks Fox’s ass on these election night events.  Fox just has a bunch of people sitting around pontificating while CNN is giving us every detail in every county in every state.  I normally never tune in to CNN, but on election nights, man, there’s really no choice here.

 

UPDATE 1:  Bill Nelson is underperforming his 2012 re-election in Florida so far, by about 5%.  That was a very close race, so that again bodes well for the GOP in the Sunshine State.  Most vote in so far are from heavily-Democrat Pinellas County.

 

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog [Update 14]

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

 

Ok, folks, here we go.

Unlike I did this afternoon, I am going to run the Updates down the page, to keep them from getting mixed up with all the adds.  I will note each update with a number in the title, i.e., I will add “Update 1” to the title with the first update, “Update 2” with the 2nd, etc., so you’ll be able to easily know when something new is there.  I’ll also send out a tweet for those who follow on Twitter.

PLEASE COMMENT – I will be following your comments and responding to as many as I can.

What to look for early:

Kentucky HD 6 and Georgia HD 6 – if the Rs are leading in both these GOP-held districts when the polls close at 7:00 ET, it’s cause for celebration.  If the Ds are ahead, not so much.  Unless you’re a Democrat, of course.

Trump won both of these districts easily in 2016, but the Democrats have spent tons of money trying to turn them both.

Also, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th district.  That’s another the Ds are hoping to turn tonight.

If the Ds are winning in all of these districts, then their probability of taking the House becomes near-certain.  If they are losing them all, then we’re going to have a late night, perhaps early morning before we know where things are going.

Indiana Senate – We will also be seeing first numbers in this race at 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT.  It’s a big one, though not needed for the GOP to retain control in the Senate.  CNN’s already reporting what is most likely the absentee ballots, and Republican Braun is up big over Democrat incumbent Donnelly, but the Rs always lead in the absentee votes in Indiana.

We’ll see.

Back shortly.

UPDATE 14:  Fox New is projecting Hawley will defeat McCaskill, which is a big dose of justice.

John James has to his great credit made it a real race with the execrable Debbie Stabenow, but he is probably going to come up short.  Sure wish President Trump had chosen to make a stop in Michigan over this past weekend.  Missed opportunity there.

Andrew Gillum actually conceded the race in Florida.  I fully expected him to mount a challenge.  Good for him – that shows class.

For some reason, the Senate race in Florida remains un-called.  I’ll call it – Rick Scott has won.

Juan Williams is making an ass of himself on Fox – time to change channels.

McSally continues to build a lead in AZ.  Cool

In Texas House races, both Pete Sessions and John Culberson were defeated, largely because they both ran horrible campaigns.  In Sessions’ case, at least he can point to an opponent who ran a great race:  Colin Allred.  Allred is a complete leftist nutjob, but he ran a terrific, positive campaign and Sessions ran some of the worst TV ads I’ve ever seen.

In Montana, Tester continues to lead Rosendale, but the gap is closing.  Still no returns in from most of the rural areas of the state.  Gianforte is about to overtake Kathleen Williams in the house race there.

 

UPDATE 13:  Fox 13 in Tampa is finally calling the FL governor’s race for DeSantis.  Fox, CNN, AP holding out.  Why, I’m not sure.  The Senate race should also be called for Rick Scott.

McSally now out to a bit of a lead over the execrable Sinema in AZ.

Tester leading Rosendale, but it is very early in MT, with none of the rural counties out there reporting yet. Gianforte also behind in the House race there, but again, it’s very early.

Hawley still whipping McCaskill, which is totes awesome.

Nevada polls close at 10:00 CT.  I’m not feeling good about Heller.  We’ll see.

 

UPDATE 12:  Politico has just called the Texas Senate race for Ted Cruz.  CNN is calling it, too.  And now Jake Tapper is encouraging Irish Bob to run for president.

*sigh*

And yes, I’m watching CNN, because Fox is just a bunch of windbags pontificating.  CNN has actual county-by-county analysis.  C’mon, Fox, catch up here.

As expected, the early vote in the AZ senate race is very tight, with Sinema holding about a 1% lead over McSally.  McSally needs to win the Election Day vote.

CNN just called ND senate race for Kevin Cramer.

Josh Hawley is sucking wind early against McCaskill in Missouri.  That one surprises me.  Not sure where those returns are from yet.

[Ooops, I was actually looking at old numbers in the MO race – Hawley is actually kickin butt there.  Awesome.]

Depending on AZ/NV, the Rs will have somewhere between 53-56 senate seats next session.  Cool.

 

UPDATE 11:  Scott Walker has pulled into the lead in Wisconsin!

Kemp still killing Abrams in Georgia.

Not sure why no one has called the FL gov race for DeSantis – he has won.

Scott’s race is somewhat closer with Nelson, but he appears to have an insurmountable lead as well given that 99% of the vote is now counted.  Just not enough votes left for the Ds.

Chris Kobach has lost the governor’s race in Kansas.  It will truly suck to have a Dem governor there for the next four years.

Cruz’s lead now at 85k with still ~50 rural counties yet to report a vote.  What we have to remember is that the first 4 million or so votes reported tonight in Texas were early votes.  As the Election Day vote comes in, Cruz’s lead will continue to expand.

CNN now calling the House Majority for the Ds.

Ugh.

 

UPDATE 10:  Cruz now down by 21k, still ~100 rural counties have yet to report.

Brian Kemp is killing Stacey Abrams in Georgia’s gubernatorial race.

Brat is losing VA 7.

Democrat McBath is leading Repub Handel in GA 6, where we finally have early votes reported.

Afraid the house is indeed gone.  Dammit.

On the bright side, DeSantis and Scott are both going to win in Florida.  That’s huge.

And finally, as I was typing this update, Cruz took the lead in Texas despite a big chunk of Houston’s votes coming in.  His lead will probably expand the rest of the evening.  But you have to give Irish Bob credit for making him sweat with his $80 million.

 

UPDATE 9:  DeSantis and Scott are now likely to both win in Florida.  What an amazing turnaround.

Braun has won Indiana.

Blackburn has won Tennessee.

Manchin has won WVA.

Kramer will win North Dakota.

John James is competing strongly in Michigan.

Cruz is 100k votes down but there are still over 100 rural counties who have not reported any votes at all to this point.  Karl Rove says Cruz will win in the end because of that.  I think Rove is right.

Right now, the Ds lead in 31 Red districts, the Rs lead in 5 Blue districts, and Fox News is now projecting the Democrats will gain a majority at the end of the evening.

We’ll see.  I’m not convinced yet.

UPDATE 8:  Barr has won KY 6.  Brat is barely behind know in VY 7.  If Brat can come back, that would be huge.  Still a big fat ZERO votes counted in GA 6.

Both Republicans are still holding on in Florida’s statewide races with 96% of the vote counted, and it appears that the votes still outstanding are pretty evenly split between R and D areas of the state.  Holy cow.

Cruz still a little behind in Texas, but most rural areas are still yet to report.

In Tennessee, the senate race is not close at this point, but will tighten as the night goes along.  But I think Blackburn wins that one.  [Fox just called it for Marsha!]

DeWine now in the lead in the Ohio governor’s race!

Braun still killing it in Indiana!

Kramer’s going to kill Heitcamp!

John James actually leading in the early Michigan returns.

This night is shaping up nicely, folks.  Keep the faith.

 

UPDATE 7:  I continue to be struck how much tonight is like 2016, especially in Florida statewide races.  Here we sit again with 93% of the votes counted, and the races are too close to call.  In 2016, everyone assumed all the outstanding votes were in the Miami/Broward area and Trump would lose.  But it turned out that there were still a bunch of votes sitting uncounted in GOP areas, and in a bunch of GOP-leaning precincts in South Florida.  Trump wins.

Cruz finally takes the lead in Texas, as the early vote returns start to finally come in from rural areas.  He will continue to build that lead as the night goes on.

Right now, I have to say that things are stacking up pretty nicely for the Rs.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

UPDATE 6:  Ok, things are starting to shape up now:

– Cruz is going to win by 8-10 points, based on what we are seeing early.  Cool.

– Both DeSantis and Scott have now moved into leads in their races.  But most of the outstanding votes are in Miami/Broward area.  You have to think the Ds will win, but we thought the same in the 2016 presidential race, too.

– Barr is building his lead in KY 6.

– Bratt is holding on in VA 7.  Most remaining votes are in R areas.

– Braun still killing it in Indiana.

– Still not a damn vote in in GA 6.  Unreal.

– Despicable Donna Shalala has won FL 27, a Democrat pickup.  Ugh.

 

UPDATE 5:  Barr now dead even in KY 6, Brat has fallen behind, though just by a couple thousand votes.  Still nothing on GA 6.  What the hell?

Oops, Barr took the lead with 77% of the vote counted just as I hit “enter” on this update.

DeSantis now within 1.2%, Scott within 1.4% in Florida, as the Panhandle votes finally start coming in.  Still lots of votes outstanding in Miami/Dade, though, too, though.  No way to call those races yet.

Again, it’s 2016 all over again down there.

Braun retaining a strong lead on Donnelly, but he needs it for when Indiana’s larger cities start reporting votes later tonight.

Irish Bob O’Rourke is up early over Ted Cruz, but it’s just Dallas turning in its early vote totals.  No worries, yet.

 

UPDATE 4:  Brat now moving out to a significant lead in VA7.  Barr has pulled within .3% in KY 6, still tons of votes to be counted.

The FL Gov and Sen races are tightening with every update.  Nelson had led by as much as 6% but now up by 2.  Gillum up by just 1.6.

Nothing in from GA 6 yet, unfortunately.

This feels an awful lot like 2016, doesn’t it?  Yes, it does.

 

UPDATE 3:  Brat now actually looking ok in early returns, which are most likely from urban areas.  He’ll be stronger in the suburbs and rural areas.

Braun running much stronger against Donnelly right now in rural areas than expected.  Well ahead of pace so far.

Can’t help noticing that CNN goes to their black anchor person every time there’s an update to be given on the Florida and Georgia governor’s races, both of which feature black candidates for the Ds.  So damn ridiculous.

The encouraging thing about Florida right now is that, even though the Rs trail in the Gov and Sen races, votes are already coming in from Miami/Dade County, which is unusual.

In KY 6, D McGrath is now well ahead of R Barr.  Ugh.  Still early, though, and don’t know where the votes are from yet.

 

UPDATE 2:  Ok, it’s time to say it:  CNN just kicks Fox’s ass on these election night events.  Fox just has a bunch of people sitting around pontificating while CNN is giving us every detail in every county in every state.  I normally never tune in to CNN, but on election nights, man, there’s really no choice here.

 

UPDATE 1:  Bill Nelson is underperforming his 2012 re-election in Florida so far, by about 5%.  That was a very close race, so that again bodes well for the GOP in the Sunshine State.  Most vote in so far are from heavily-Democrat Pinellas County.

 

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog [Update 13]

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

 

Ok, folks, here we go.

Unlike I did this afternoon, I am going to run the Updates down the page, to keep them from getting mixed up with all the adds.  I will note each update with a number in the title, i.e., I will add “Update 1” to the title with the first update, “Update 2” with the 2nd, etc., so you’ll be able to easily know when something new is there.  I’ll also send out a tweet for those who follow on Twitter.

PLEASE COMMENT – I will be following your comments and responding to as many as I can.

What to look for early:

Kentucky HD 6 and Georgia HD 6 – if the Rs are leading in both these GOP-held districts when the polls close at 7:00 ET, it’s cause for celebration.  If the Ds are ahead, not so much.  Unless you’re a Democrat, of course.

Trump won both of these districts easily in 2016, but the Democrats have spent tons of money trying to turn them both.

Also, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th district.  That’s another the Ds are hoping to turn tonight.

If the Ds are winning in all of these districts, then their probability of taking the House becomes near-certain.  If they are losing them all, then we’re going to have a late night, perhaps early morning before we know where things are going.

Indiana Senate – We will also be seeing first numbers in this race at 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT.  It’s a big one, though not needed for the GOP to retain control in the Senate.  CNN’s already reporting what is most likely the absentee ballots, and Republican Braun is up big over Democrat incumbent Donnelly, but the Rs always lead in the absentee votes in Indiana.

We’ll see.

Back shortly.

UPDATE 13:  Fox 13 in Tampa is finally calling the FL governor’s race for DeSantis.  Fox, CNN, AP holding out.  Why, I’m not sure.  The Senate race should also be called for Rick Scott.

McSally now out to a bit of a lead over the execrable Sinema in AZ.

Tester leading Rosendale, but it is very early in MT, with none of the rural counties out there reporting yet. Gianforte also behind in the House race there, but again, it’s very early.

Hawley still whipping McCaskill, which is totes awesome.

Nevada polls close at 10:00 CT.  I’m not feeling good about Heller.  We’ll see.

 

UPDATE 12:  Politico has just called the Texas Senate race for Ted Cruz.  CNN is calling it, too.  And now Jake Tapper is encouraging Irish Bob to run for president.

*sigh*

And yes, I’m watching CNN, because Fox is just a bunch of windbags pontificating.  CNN has actual county-by-county analysis.  C’mon, Fox, catch up here.

As expected, the early vote in the AZ senate race is very tight, with Sinema holding about a 1% lead over McSally.  McSally needs to win the Election Day vote.

CNN just called ND senate race for Kevin Cramer.

Josh Hawley is sucking wind early against McCaskill in Missouri.  That one surprises me.  Not sure where those returns are from yet.

[Ooops, I was actually looking at old numbers in the MO race – Hawley is actually kickin butt there.  Awesome.]

Depending on AZ/NV, the Rs will have somewhere between 53-56 senate seats next session.  Cool.

 

UPDATE 11:  Scott Walker has pulled into the lead in Wisconsin!

Kemp still killing Abrams in Georgia.

Not sure why no one has called the FL gov race for DeSantis – he has won.

Scott’s race is somewhat closer with Nelson, but he appears to have an insurmountable lead as well given that 99% of the vote is now counted.  Just not enough votes left for the Ds.

Chris Kobach has lost the governor’s race in Kansas.  It will truly suck to have a Dem governor there for the next four years.

Cruz’s lead now at 85k with still ~50 rural counties yet to report a vote.  What we have to remember is that the first 4 million or so votes reported tonight in Texas were early votes.  As the Election Day vote comes in, Cruz’s lead will continue to expand.

CNN now calling the House Majority for the Ds.

Ugh.

 

UPDATE 10:  Cruz now down by 21k, still ~100 rural counties have yet to report.

Brian Kemp is killing Stacey Abrams in Georgia’s gubernatorial race.

Brat is losing VA 7.

Democrat McBath is leading Repub Handel in GA 6, where we finally have early votes reported.

Afraid the house is indeed gone.  Dammit.

On the bright side, DeSantis and Scott are both going to win in Florida.  That’s huge.

And finally, as I was typing this update, Cruz took the lead in Texas despite a big chunk of Houston’s votes coming in.  His lead will probably expand the rest of the evening.  But you have to give Irish Bob credit for making him sweat with his $80 million.

 

UPDATE 9:  DeSantis and Scott are now likely to both win in Florida.  What an amazing turnaround.

Braun has won Indiana.

Blackburn has won Tennessee.

Manchin has won WVA.

Kramer will win North Dakota.

John James is competing strongly in Michigan.

Cruz is 100k votes down but there are still over 100 rural counties who have not reported any votes at all to this point.  Karl Rove says Cruz will win in the end because of that.  I think Rove is right.

Right now, the Ds lead in 31 Red districts, the Rs lead in 5 Blue districts, and Fox News is now projecting the Democrats will gain a majority at the end of the evening.

We’ll see.  I’m not convinced yet.

UPDATE 8:  Barr has won KY 6.  Brat is barely behind know in VY 7.  If Brat can come back, that would be huge.  Still a big fat ZERO votes counted in GA 6.

Both Republicans are still holding on in Florida’s statewide races with 96% of the vote counted, and it appears that the votes still outstanding are pretty evenly split between R and D areas of the state.  Holy cow.

Cruz still a little behind in Texas, but most rural areas are still yet to report.

In Tennessee, the senate race is not close at this point, but will tighten as the night goes along.  But I think Blackburn wins that one.  [Fox just called it for Marsha!]

DeWine now in the lead in the Ohio governor’s race!

Braun still killing it in Indiana!

Kramer’s going to kill Heitcamp!

John James actually leading in the early Michigan returns.

This night is shaping up nicely, folks.  Keep the faith.

 

UPDATE 7:  I continue to be struck how much tonight is like 2016, especially in Florida statewide races.  Here we sit again with 93% of the votes counted, and the races are too close to call.  In 2016, everyone assumed all the outstanding votes were in the Miami/Broward area and Trump would lose.  But it turned out that there were still a bunch of votes sitting uncounted in GOP areas, and in a bunch of GOP-leaning precincts in South Florida.  Trump wins.

Cruz finally takes the lead in Texas, as the early vote returns start to finally come in from rural areas.  He will continue to build that lead as the night goes on.

Right now, I have to say that things are stacking up pretty nicely for the Rs.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

UPDATE 6:  Ok, things are starting to shape up now:

– Cruz is going to win by 8-10 points, based on what we are seeing early.  Cool.

– Both DeSantis and Scott have now moved into leads in their races.  But most of the outstanding votes are in Miami/Broward area.  You have to think the Ds will win, but we thought the same in the 2016 presidential race, too.

– Barr is building his lead in KY 6.

– Bratt is holding on in VA 7.  Most remaining votes are in R areas.

– Braun still killing it in Indiana.

– Still not a damn vote in in GA 6.  Unreal.

– Despicable Donna Shalala has won FL 27, a Democrat pickup.  Ugh.

 

UPDATE 5:  Barr now dead even in KY 6, Brat has fallen behind, though just by a couple thousand votes.  Still nothing on GA 6.  What the hell?

Oops, Barr took the lead with 77% of the vote counted just as I hit “enter” on this update.

DeSantis now within 1.2%, Scott within 1.4% in Florida, as the Panhandle votes finally start coming in.  Still lots of votes outstanding in Miami/Dade, though, too, though.  No way to call those races yet.

Again, it’s 2016 all over again down there.

Braun retaining a strong lead on Donnelly, but he needs it for when Indiana’s larger cities start reporting votes later tonight.

Irish Bob O’Rourke is up early over Ted Cruz, but it’s just Dallas turning in its early vote totals.  No worries, yet.

 

UPDATE 4:  Brat now moving out to a significant lead in VA7.  Barr has pulled within .3% in KY 6, still tons of votes to be counted.

The FL Gov and Sen races are tightening with every update.  Nelson had led by as much as 6% but now up by 2.  Gillum up by just 1.6.

Nothing in from GA 6 yet, unfortunately.

This feels an awful lot like 2016, doesn’t it?  Yes, it does.

 

UPDATE 3:  Brat now actually looking ok in early returns, which are most likely from urban areas.  He’ll be stronger in the suburbs and rural areas.

Braun running much stronger against Donnelly right now in rural areas than expected.  Well ahead of pace so far.

Can’t help noticing that CNN goes to their black anchor person every time there’s an update to be given on the Florida and Georgia governor’s races, both of which feature black candidates for the Ds.  So damn ridiculous.

The encouraging thing about Florida right now is that, even though the Rs trail in the Gov and Sen races, votes are already coming in from Miami/Dade County, which is unusual.

In KY 6, D McGrath is now well ahead of R Barr.  Ugh.  Still early, though, and don’t know where the votes are from yet.

 

UPDATE 2:  Ok, it’s time to say it:  CNN just kicks Fox’s ass on these election night events.  Fox just has a bunch of people sitting around pontificating while CNN is giving us every detail in every county in every state.  I normally never tune in to CNN, but on election nights, man, there’s really no choice here.

 

UPDATE 1:  Bill Nelson is underperforming his 2012 re-election in Florida so far, by about 5%.  That was a very close race, so that again bodes well for the GOP in the Sunshine State.  Most vote in so far are from heavily-Democrat Pinellas County.

 

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog [Update 11]

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

 

Ok, folks, here we go.

Unlike I did this afternoon, I am going to run the Updates down the page, to keep them from getting mixed up with all the adds.  I will note each update with a number in the title, i.e., I will add “Update 1” to the title with the first update, “Update 2” with the 2nd, etc., so you’ll be able to easily know when something new is there.  I’ll also send out a tweet for those who follow on Twitter.

PLEASE COMMENT – I will be following your comments and responding to as many as I can.

What to look for early:

Kentucky HD 6 and Georgia HD 6 – if the Rs are leading in both these GOP-held districts when the polls close at 7:00 ET, it’s cause for celebration.  If the Ds are ahead, not so much.  Unless you’re a Democrat, of course.

Trump won both of these districts easily in 2016, but the Democrats have spent tons of money trying to turn them both.

Also, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th district.  That’s another the Ds are hoping to turn tonight.

If the Ds are winning in all of these districts, then their probability of taking the House becomes near-certain.  If they are losing them all, then we’re going to have a late night, perhaps early morning before we know where things are going.

Indiana Senate – We will also be seeing first numbers in this race at 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT.  It’s a big one, though not needed for the GOP to retain control in the Senate.  CNN’s already reporting what is most likely the absentee ballots, and Republican Braun is up big over Democrat incumbent Donnelly, but the Rs always lead in the absentee votes in Indiana.

We’ll see.

Back shortly.

UPDATE 11:  Scott Walker has pulled into the lead in Wisconsin!

Kemp still killing Abrams in Georgia.

Not sure why no one has called the FL gov race for DeSantis – he has won.

Scott’s race is somewhat closer with Nelson, but he appears to have an insurmountable lead as well given that 99% of the vote is now counted.  Just not enough votes left for the Ds.

Chris Kobach has lost the governor’s race in Kansas.  It will truly suck to have a Dem governor there for the next four years.

Cruz’s lead now at 85k with still ~50 rural counties yet to report a vote.  What we have to remember is that the first 4 million or so votes reported tonight in Texas were early votes.  As the Election Day vote comes in, Cruz’s lead will continue to expand.

CNN now calling the House Majority for the Ds.

Ugh.

 

UPDATE 10:  Cruz now down by 21k, still ~100 rural counties have yet to report.

Brian Kemp is killing Stacey Abrams in Georgia’s gubernatorial race.

Brat is losing VA 7.

Democrat McBath is leading Repub Handel in GA 6, where we finally have early votes reported.

Afraid the house is indeed gone.  Dammit.

On the bright side, DeSantis and Scott are both going to win in Florida.  That’s huge.

And finally, as I was typing this update, Cruz took the lead in Texas despite a big chunk of Houston’s votes coming in.  His lead will probably expand the rest of the evening.  But you have to give Irish Bob credit for making him sweat with his $80 million.

 

UPDATE 9:  DeSantis and Scott are now likely to both win in Florida.  What an amazing turnaround.

Braun has won Indiana.

Blackburn has won Tennessee.

Manchin has won WVA.

Kramer will win North Dakota.

John James is competing strongly in Michigan.

Cruz is 100k votes down but there are still over 100 rural counties who have not reported any votes at all to this point.  Karl Rove says Cruz will win in the end because of that.  I think Rove is right.

Right now, the Ds lead in 31 Red districts, the Rs lead in 5 Blue districts, and Fox News is now projecting the Democrats will gain a majority at the end of the evening.

We’ll see.  I’m not convinced yet.

UPDATE 8:  Barr has won KY 6.  Brat is barely behind know in VY 7.  If Brat can come back, that would be huge.  Still a big fat ZERO votes counted in GA 6.

Both Republicans are still holding on in Florida’s statewide races with 96% of the vote counted, and it appears that the votes still outstanding are pretty evenly split between R and D areas of the state.  Holy cow.

Cruz still a little behind in Texas, but most rural areas are still yet to report.

In Tennessee, the senate race is not close at this point, but will tighten as the night goes along.  But I think Blackburn wins that one.  [Fox just called it for Marsha!]

DeWine now in the lead in the Ohio governor’s race!

Braun still killing it in Indiana!

Kramer’s going to kill Heitcamp!

John James actually leading in the early Michigan returns.

This night is shaping up nicely, folks.  Keep the faith.

 

UPDATE 7:  I continue to be struck how much tonight is like 2016, especially in Florida statewide races.  Here we sit again with 93% of the votes counted, and the races are too close to call.  In 2016, everyone assumed all the outstanding votes were in the Miami/Broward area and Trump would lose.  But it turned out that there were still a bunch of votes sitting uncounted in GOP areas, and in a bunch of GOP-leaning precincts in South Florida.  Trump wins.

Cruz finally takes the lead in Texas, as the early vote returns start to finally come in from rural areas.  He will continue to build that lead as the night goes on.

Right now, I have to say that things are stacking up pretty nicely for the Rs.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

UPDATE 6:  Ok, things are starting to shape up now:

– Cruz is going to win by 8-10 points, based on what we are seeing early.  Cool.

– Both DeSantis and Scott have now moved into leads in their races.  But most of the outstanding votes are in Miami/Broward area.  You have to think the Ds will win, but we thought the same in the 2016 presidential race, too.

– Barr is building his lead in KY 6.

– Bratt is holding on in VA 7.  Most remaining votes are in R areas.

– Braun still killing it in Indiana.

– Still not a damn vote in in GA 6.  Unreal.

– Despicable Donna Shalala has won FL 27, a Democrat pickup.  Ugh.

 

UPDATE 5:  Barr now dead even in KY 6, Brat has fallen behind, though just by a couple thousand votes.  Still nothing on GA 6.  What the hell?

Oops, Barr took the lead with 77% of the vote counted just as I hit “enter” on this update.

DeSantis now within 1.2%, Scott within 1.4% in Florida, as the Panhandle votes finally start coming in.  Still lots of votes outstanding in Miami/Dade, though, too, though.  No way to call those races yet.

Again, it’s 2016 all over again down there.

Braun retaining a strong lead on Donnelly, but he needs it for when Indiana’s larger cities start reporting votes later tonight.

Irish Bob O’Rourke is up early over Ted Cruz, but it’s just Dallas turning in its early vote totals.  No worries, yet.

 

UPDATE 4:  Brat now moving out to a significant lead in VA7.  Barr has pulled within .3% in KY 6, still tons of votes to be counted.

The FL Gov and Sen races are tightening with every update.  Nelson had led by as much as 6% but now up by 2.  Gillum up by just 1.6.

Nothing in from GA 6 yet, unfortunately.

This feels an awful lot like 2016, doesn’t it?  Yes, it does.

 

UPDATE 3:  Brat now actually looking ok in early returns, which are most likely from urban areas.  He’ll be stronger in the suburbs and rural areas.

Braun running much stronger against Donnelly right now in rural areas than expected.  Well ahead of pace so far.

Can’t help noticing that CNN goes to their black anchor person every time there’s an update to be given on the Florida and Georgia governor’s races, both of which feature black candidates for the Ds.  So damn ridiculous.

The encouraging thing about Florida right now is that, even though the Rs trail in the Gov and Sen races, votes are already coming in from Miami/Dade County, which is unusual.

In KY 6, D McGrath is now well ahead of R Barr.  Ugh.  Still early, though, and don’t know where the votes are from yet.

 

UPDATE 2:  Ok, it’s time to say it:  CNN just kicks Fox’s ass on these election night events.  Fox just has a bunch of people sitting around pontificating while CNN is giving us every detail in every county in every state.  I normally never tune in to CNN, but on election nights, man, there’s really no choice here.

 

UPDATE 1:  Bill Nelson is underperforming his 2012 re-election in Florida so far, by about 5%.  That was a very close race, so that again bodes well for the GOP in the Sunshine State.  Most vote in so far are from heavily-Democrat Pinellas County.

 

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog [Update 9]

The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

 

Ok, folks, here we go.

Unlike I did this afternoon, I am going to run the Updates down the page, to keep them from getting mixed up with all the adds.  I will note each update with a number in the title, i.e., I will add “Update 1” to the title with the first update, “Update 2” with the 2nd, etc., so you’ll be able to easily know when something new is there.  I’ll also send out a tweet for those who follow on Twitter.

PLEASE COMMENT – I will be following your comments and responding to as many as I can.

What to look for early:

Kentucky HD 6 and Georgia HD 6 – if the Rs are leading in both these GOP-held districts when the polls close at 7:00 ET, it’s cause for celebration.  If the Ds are ahead, not so much.  Unless you’re a Democrat, of course.

Trump won both of these districts easily in 2016, but the Democrats have spent tons of money trying to turn them both.

Also, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th district.  That’s another the Ds are hoping to turn tonight.

If the Ds are winning in all of these districts, then their probability of taking the House becomes near-certain.  If they are losing them all, then we’re going to have a late night, perhaps early morning before we know where things are going.

Indiana Senate – We will also be seeing first numbers in this race at 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT.  It’s a big one, though not needed for the GOP to retain control in the Senate.  CNN’s already reporting what is most likely the absentee ballots, and Republican Braun is up big over Democrat incumbent Donnelly, but the Rs always lead in the absentee votes in Indiana.

We’ll see.

Back shortly.

UPDATE 9:  DeSantis and Scott are now likely to both win in Florida.  What an amazing turnaround.

Braun has won Indiana.

Blackburn has won Tennessee.

Manchin has won WVA.

Kramer will win North Dakota.

John James is competing strongly in Michigan.

Cruz is 100k votes down but there are still over 100 rural counties who have not reported any votes at all to this point.  Karl Rove says Cruz will win in the end because of that.  I think Rove is right.

Right now, the Ds lead in 31 Red districts, the Rs lead in 5 Blue districts, and Fox News is now projecting the Democrats will gain a majority at the end of the evening.

We’ll see.  I’m not convinced yet.

UPDATE 8:  Barr has won KY 6.  Brat is barely behind know in VY 7.  If Brat can come back, that would be huge.  Still a big fat ZERO votes counted in GA 6.

Both Republicans are still holding on in Florida’s statewide races with 96% of the vote counted, and it appears that the votes still outstanding are pretty evenly split between R and D areas of the state.  Holy cow.

Cruz still a little behind in Texas, but most rural areas are still yet to report.

In Tennessee, the senate race is not close at this point, but will tighten as the night goes along.  But I think Blackburn wins that one.  [Fox just called it for Marsha!]

DeWine now in the lead in the Ohio governor’s race!

Braun still killing it in Indiana!

Kramer’s going to kill Heitcamp!

John James actually leading in the early Michigan returns.

This night is shaping up nicely, folks.  Keep the faith.

 

UPDATE 7:  I continue to be struck how much tonight is like 2016, especially in Florida statewide races.  Here we sit again with 93% of the votes counted, and the races are too close to call.  In 2016, everyone assumed all the outstanding votes were in the Miami/Broward area and Trump would lose.  But it turned out that there were still a bunch of votes sitting uncounted in GOP areas, and in a bunch of GOP-leaning precincts in South Florida.  Trump wins.

Cruz finally takes the lead in Texas, as the early vote returns start to finally come in from rural areas.  He will continue to build that lead as the night goes on.

Right now, I have to say that things are stacking up pretty nicely for the Rs.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

UPDATE 6:  Ok, things are starting to shape up now:

– Cruz is going to win by 8-10 points, based on what we are seeing early.  Cool.

– Both DeSantis and Scott have now moved into leads in their races.  But most of the outstanding votes are in Miami/Broward area.  You have to think the Ds will win, but we thought the same in the 2016 presidential race, too.

– Barr is building his lead in KY 6.

– Bratt is holding on in VA 7.  Most remaining votes are in R areas.

– Braun still killing it in Indiana.

– Still not a damn vote in in GA 6.  Unreal.

– Despicable Donna Shalala has won FL 27, a Democrat pickup.  Ugh.

 

UPDATE 5:  Barr now dead even in KY 6, Brat has fallen behind, though just by a couple thousand votes.  Still nothing on GA 6.  What the hell?

Oops, Barr took the lead with 77% of the vote counted just as I hit “enter” on this update.

DeSantis now within 1.2%, Scott within 1.4% in Florida, as the Panhandle votes finally start coming in.  Still lots of votes outstanding in Miami/Dade, though, too, though.  No way to call those races yet.

Again, it’s 2016 all over again down there.

Braun retaining a strong lead on Donnelly, but he needs it for when Indiana’s larger cities start reporting votes later tonight.

Irish Bob O’Rourke is up early over Ted Cruz, but it’s just Dallas turning in its early vote totals.  No worries, yet.

 

UPDATE 4:  Brat now moving out to a significant lead in VA7.  Barr has pulled within .3% in KY 6, still tons of votes to be counted.

The FL Gov and Sen races are tightening with every update.  Nelson had led by as much as 6% but now up by 2.  Gillum up by just 1.6.

Nothing in from GA 6 yet, unfortunately.

This feels an awful lot like 2016, doesn’t it?  Yes, it does.

 

UPDATE 3:  Brat now actually looking ok in early returns, which are most likely from urban areas.  He’ll be stronger in the suburbs and rural areas.

Braun running much stronger against Donnelly right now in rural areas than expected.  Well ahead of pace so far.

Can’t help noticing that CNN goes to their black anchor person every time there’s an update to be given on the Florida and Georgia governor’s races, both of which feature black candidates for the Ds.  So damn ridiculous.

The encouraging thing about Florida right now is that, even though the Rs trail in the Gov and Sen races, votes are already coming in from Miami/Dade County, which is unusual.

In KY 6, D McGrath is now well ahead of R Barr.  Ugh.  Still early, though, and don’t know where the votes are from yet.

 

UPDATE 2:  Ok, it’s time to say it:  CNN just kicks Fox’s ass on these election night events.  Fox just has a bunch of people sitting around pontificating while CNN is giving us every detail in every county in every state.  I normally never tune in to CNN, but on election nights, man, there’s really no choice here.

 

UPDATE 1:  Bill Nelson is underperforming his 2012 re-election in Florida so far, by about 5%.  That was a very close race, so that again bodes well for the GOP in the Sunshine State.  Most vote in so far are from heavily-Democrat Pinellas County.

 

That is all.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

Open post

Live Blog: Election Day On Twitter – Data, Media Bias, Fun Stuff

The Campaign Update Election Day Preview Live Blog

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

[Note:  I will be live-blogging election results on a new thread starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time.]

Check in here throughout the afternoon for further updates.

UPDATE @4:20 CT:

Ok, I’m going to close this one down right here.  Will start this evening’s open thread at 6:00 CT sharp – please join me and offer comments and information as you find it.  Thanks.

 

UPDATE @4:10 CT:

The folks at ZeroHedge.com have a really nice piece on when the polls in every state close and what to watch for when they do…

 

UPDATE @3:55 CT:

Not good news for Dean Heller out in Nevada…

UPDATE @3:10 CT:

Michael Newton with some more good early voting data…

 

UPDATE @2:20 CT: 

Nate Silver’s 538.com weighs in with its final “blue wave” prediction…

It’s fair to note that 538 also gave Hillary Clinton better than a 70% chance of winning the presidency on Election Day 2016.

538 also provides this interesting look-back at previous mid-term outcomes…

 

UPDATE @ 2:00 CT:

Final AZ early voting numbers are in, and they look good for McSally…

Michael Newton, who everyone would do well to follow on Twitter, makes a great point here…

Another tweeter everyone would to well to follow, au ng, has final Early Voting numbers from Florida, and again, they are very positive for the GOP…

 

UPDATE @12:30 CT:

Man, nobody would have ever guessed this would happen.  Oh, wait…

What?  Climate Change is not at the top of everyone’s mind today?  How can this be?

UPDATE @12:22 CT:  Trafalgar with some more final polls…

 

 

Noon, CT:  Let’s start with some key data points that have come across the @GDBlackmon Twitter feed today….

The Republican polling firm Trafalgar Group releases its final Florida poll this morning, and it is glorious if accurate:

Trafalgar was also the last firm to poll the Texas senate race…

Man, if this TargetSmart bunch has an accurate means of estimating early vote turnout, this is going to be an epic Red Wave.  TargetSmart, by the way, is a Democrat polling firm…

In Phoenix, Republicans are doing better in every city ward than they did in 2016. Bad news for nutjob Democrat Kyrsten Sinema…

This just happened in the world of media bias…

Ok, this is funny.  And sadly accurate…

 

That is all, for now.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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