Trump’s Texas Primary Turnout Was Nothing Short of Amazing

Today’s Campaign Update (Because the Campaign Never Ends)

Yes, friends, Donald Trump did just fine in Texas on Super Tuesday, despite what Lt. Col. Allen West said. – I know this is going back in time a bit now, but readers continue to send me notes of concern about an “analysis” posted by Lt. Col. Allen West at his website after the Super Tuesday primary in Texas. In that piece, with the clickbait headline of “Super Tuesday Results From Texas: It Ain’t Pretty,” Mr. West contends that the President didn’t do well in the Lone Star State, based on vote count comparisons with the field of Democrats, which then still consisted of at least 8 contenders.

Here’s an excerpt from the piece:

Ever since I was a little boy, I have always enjoyed math. It was always a treat solving equations and figuring out solutions based upon formulas. Regardless of the common core math fallacy, there are objective truths, and they can be found in the study of mathematics. I suppose that was why being a US Army Field Artillery officer was the perfect fit for me, figuring out firing solutions to put “steel on target.” Back in the day, we had to do our computations, under time constraints, with tabular firing tables and slide rules . . . those were the days.

Numbers tell a story when you know what to analyze, and they provide insight and the ability to develop plans and strategies. Therefore, our campaign staff for Texas GOP Chairman decided to take a look at some numbers from the Super Tuesday primary election here in the Lone Star State. We believed the results would tell us a story, but the story we uncovered is not a good one.

I think it is time those living in a delusional fantasy land stop kidding themselves, and realize that, well, yes, “Houston, we have a problem.” Now, I am not an alarmist, certainly not one to panic, but I am a realist. And, it is time we get real about what is happening, politically, in Texas.

It is, sad to say, a repeat of what the progressive socialist left has been doing in other once strong, conservative states.

The data found below comes from the Texas Secretary of State website. You can also see the results by county by party. This is all open-source data that anyone can find, research, analyze, and assess. What we did was to look at the major population centers in Texas, by county, and several surrounding counties, to provide a picture of what happened in this primary election cycle.

By comparison, we looked at three rural (lower population) counties. This is the data we found posted as of Thursday, March 5th. Here is what we found, with “us” meaning Republicans:

STATEWIDE (Texas) – updated 
D – votes cast – 2,076,046
R – votes cast – 2,008,385
THEY OUT VOTED us by roughly 68K
 
Harris (Houston) – registered voters 2,385,906
D – 321,903 votes cast 13.49% turnout
R – 192,985 votes cast 8.09%  turnout
THEY OUT VOTED us by roughly 129k people 

The piece goes on and on, detailing the turnout in several other big counties in Texas, but you get the picture: Because the 8 Democrats pulled more total votes than a President running essentially unopposed for re-election, that means Trump is in trouble in the Red State of Texas.

No, not really.

Look, this is really kind of simple. Texans have a long history of cross-over voting in the GOP and Democrat primaries, especially in years in which an incumbent president is running for re-election and the other party has a contested primary going on. We have a couple of 21st century examples to look at in this regard.

First, there was 2012, when Barack Hussien Obama His Own Self was running unopposed for re-election. Here are the official vote totals in that primary election:

Democrats: 590,164

Republicans: 1,449,447

So, in a state in which the Republicans that year held a statewide advantage of about 10-15% of the vote, the contested GOP primary between Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and an assortment of others out-polled Obama by roughly 160%, as hundreds of thousands of Democrats crossed over to vote in the GOP presidential primary, and thousands of others just stayed at home.

Then, there was 2004, when incumbent Texan George W. Bush was running for his re-election against a Democrat field consisting of John Kerry, John Edwards, Howard Dean and assorted other miscreants and grifters. Here are the official vote totals in that primary:

Democrats: 839,231

Republicans: 687,615

Here we see Democrats out-drawing the Republicans by about 33% in a state in which the GOP held an even larger overall advantage than in 2012. Why? Because thousands of people who would normally vote Republican either crossed over to participate in the contested Democrat primary or stayed at home due to lack of interest. That 33% margin for the contested Democrat race that year compares to an edge of just 1.7% in 2020. 

Now, let’s compare total turnout increase between 2020 and 2004, which is the most relevant case given that we have a GOP incumbent president in both years. Where the Democrat vote total was up by an impressive 150%, Trump’s total votes were right at 200% higher than the total Bush received in 2004. That is an amazing shift in just 16 years.

Col. West is right when he says that “we must be concerned about the progressive socialist expansion from these major population centers.” That’s nothing new in Texas, but its advance has been reducing the GOP advantage in the state over time. But let’s be honest: Overall, his post is a fright piece containing little if any real analysis designed mainly to attract clicks from readers.

Judging from our own readers here at the Campaign Update, West’s piece did have its desired effect of raising a great deal of concern from conservative Texas voters, and hey, that’s not a bad thing. But when you look at this year’s results and examine them through the prism of history and the dynamics of this year’s campaign, the ability of President Trump to accumulate more than 2 million votes in a basically uncontested primary in Texas this year is nothing short of amazing.

Texas is a Red state, and it is going to remain a Red state for the foreseeable future.

That is all.

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

11 thoughts on “Trump’s Texas Primary Turnout Was Nothing Short of Amazing

  1. Jimmy MacAfee - March 15, 2020

    West wasn’t comparing apples to apples, is what you’re saying: this is true all over, if you compare numbers of Obama voters showing up in 2012 compared to Trump voters in 2020. Not just in Texas, too. And Obama’s re-election was far less certain.

    But West is right about one thing, whether he’s saying it or not (a lot of DB Update posters have made this abundantly clear) and that is:

    We can take nothing for granted, and should vote as if our lives (and livelihoods) depend upon it! Because they do.

    1. brian - March 15, 2020

      Or you will wind up like us here in canukdom… seriously…

      1. Jimmy MacAfee - March 15, 2020

        I agree. Canada still has some great people, but the wuss at the top represents the bottom of the barrel! How the heck did Justin Truduhh ever win? Apathy.

        Solid point.

  2. Jimmy MacAfee - March 15, 2020

    Where is Gregg?

    1. David Blackmon - March 15, 2020

      I don’t know. I’ve been wondering the same thing.

      1. Jimmy MacAfee - March 15, 2020

        May have been insulted off the site by the poster who said I post too much! he may have taken it personally. I wish he’d return to posting!

        1. phineas gage - March 15, 2020

          Every political blog, particularly as it grows in popularity, will attract a certain number of trolls intent on disrupting the discussion.

          Some blog owners patrol with a heavy ban-hammer, and others do not. Either way, you can’t take troll posts seriously or personally. That way they win.

    2. Jay Matt - March 15, 2020

      Starr County in South Texas (extremely Dem) had Republican ballots at the courthouse, not at each voting place. With the county seat in a corner, this could be some 50 miles away, to vote Republican. Voters wanting to vote Trump were told he wasn’t on the ballot and they could vote for him in November. Corruption galore in this area of Texas, District Judges and Sheriff’s frequently go to jail. They manipulated the numbers and will get away with it.

  3. Alej - March 15, 2020

    “Steel on target ?”

    Cannot adjust, Col; lost round.

  4. phineas gage - March 15, 2020

    Not only that, Trump is in the process of converting the Rust Belt states firmly back to the GOP column, as well as making the black vote far less than monolithic for the Dems. That gives them plenty to worry about.

    There is only one generational politician right now who is resetting long-standing political trends, and it ain’t a Democrat.

    In addition, the cultural dynamics in California and Texas are completely different, so applying the same analysis to both is faulty. California oranges to Texas cattle.

    This long-standing narrative about how the Hispanic wave will give permanent political power to the Dems is simply a myth and should be called out as such.

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