Why Joe Biden Won’t be the Nominee

Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

People keep telling me that I’m really going out on a limb with my all-but-guarantee that Joe Biden will not be the Democrat nominee in 2020. The truth is that that is the safest prediction I’ve made about this race.

The history of presidential politics is littered with the rotting carcasses of early favorites in contested presidential nominating battles who ended up being left behind when the actual convention rolled around.

Remember 1972 Democrat nominee Edmund Muskie? Yeah, neither do I. Well, I sort of remember Edmund Muskie, who was the party establishment’s favorite as the campaign season began, but Democrat voter base, radicalized by the hippie movement moving into adulthood and the early reports of the Watergate scandal, were looking for a much more radical alternative that year. Ultimately, the party presented closet Marxist George McGovern to the country, and an electoral slaughter of epic proportions ensued, despite the media’s best efforts to destroy Richard Nixon.

Sound familiar?

What about 1976 Democrat nominee Morris Udall, the early polling leader and establishment favorite? Or nominee Birch Bayh, who won the Iowa Caucuses? Remember them? No? Well, it turned out that Democrat voters that year weren’t in the mood to nominate some old DC swamp creature, which you are going to soon discover is a very common theme in this essay. Instead, they wanted a fresh face, and ended up saddling the country with Jimmy Carter, who at the time was the freshest face we’d ever seen.

Yeah, that didn’t work out well, did it?

Remember when early polls told us that Ted Kennedy was going to beat Carter for the nomination in 1980 after Carter’s disastrous term in office? Remember when that didn’t happen, either?

Guess who the early polling leader for the nomination in the 1984 race was? Remember how Gary Hart won that year’s nomination? No? Neither does anyone else. That year, the now-ageing hippies passed the party’s baton to old swamp  creature Walter Mondale, and the result was the largest electoral landslide loss in American history.

Ok, what about 1988 Democrat nominee Mario Cuomo? Remember him? After a raft of polls in mid-1987 showed Cuomo would be a big leader in the nominating battle, party leaders tried to recruit him to get into the race. But Cuomo, knowing the scrutiny that would bring into his shady background, refused to take up the baton.

Well, what about 1988 nominee Gary Hart, who again led all the polls once Cuomo refused to run? No? Hart might actually have prevailed in the race that year had he not dared the media to “follow me around” after allegations arose that he was having an affair. For once, the media actually did its job where a Democrat was concerned, and photos of Hart cavorting on a boat with Donna Rice were soon made public. So, we ended up with Michael Dukakis and another electoral landslide instead.

Then there’s 1992 Democrat nominee Paul Tsongas, or 1992 Democrat nominee Jerry Brown, or 1992 Democrat nominee Bob Kerrey, all of whom were leaders in early polling in the race. But then this guy Bill Clinton played the saxophone on the Johnny Carson Show, and shallow Democrat voters had their man!

In 2000, it was Al Gore all the way as the Democrat voter longed to give the country a third Clinton term. That didn’t happen, either.

Then there’s 2004 Democrat nominee John Edwards. Yet another early polling leader flame-out due to Gary Hart-like circumstances. He was succeeded by 2004 Democrat nominee Howard Dean, who surged into a polling lead late in 2003. But he came up a crapper with a third-place finish in Iowa, and the nomination ended up going to the disastrous John Kerry.

Finally, I give you 2008 Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton, the overwhelming leader in every early poll in the race, and the woman who eventually…flamed completely out after Barack Hussein Obama his own self caught fire.

Democrat voters are fickle, folks. In every cycle, the party’s leaders always try to push a favorite candidate, and that favored candidate is usually rejected. The lone exceptions to this dynamic in modern times have been Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, all loooooooooosers. In 2016, the party’s leaders went so far as to actually rig the primaries in Clinton’s favor, and Obama and his evil minions did everything they could to rig the general election in her favor, and she still lost.

The Fainting Felon’s attempt to saddle the nation with a third Obama term was a miserable failure, and now here is Joe Biden, trying to execute the exact same failed strategy four years later. But Biden’s trying to do it before a party voter base that has been radicalized to the point of insanity, and the primary voting is going to be dominated by the most radicalized among them.

Every nominating battle has its own unique set of dynamics, of course, and the party bosses have set the process up this time to encourage a hung convention at which they will ultimately get to choose the nominee. Maybe that will work out for them, but if it does, history tells us that they will choose a loser.

But back to the point about Joe Biden: History also tells us that the early leader in the polls almost never ends up winning the nomination. I’m not out on a limb at all on that one, and I think I’ll stick to it.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

13 thoughts on “Why Joe Biden Won’t be the Nominee

  1. ChuckC - June 16, 2019

    I don’t think that it matters who the democrap candidate is, he will lose to Trump.

    The risk to America is in the Senate races and everyone needs to pay close attention to the fraud that has been, and will be committed to winning control of the Senate. The dems know that they will not win the president slot, so they are working on their new “insurance policy”. Steal the Senate and impeach. If not impeachment, hamstring the president and make sure there are no more conservative judges appointed.

    1. Tico Magnetico - June 16, 2019

      A few mistakes in your article: Bill Clinton played sax on the Arsenio Hall Show not Johnny Carson. Watergate played no role in nomination in 1972; Muskie faded early -Watergate break in was on Jun 17, 1972, after all the primaries – after McGovern already won winner-take-all CA.

      1. David Blackmon - June 17, 2019

        You are right about Arsenio Hall, which I already acknowledged to another reader. Good catch.

        You are wrong about Watergate – I did not say it played a role in the nomination, but it was being widely reported throughout the 1972 general election campaign. The break-in took place on June 17, the four burglars were arrested early in the wee hours of June 18. Allegations of cover-up plagued Nixon throughout the campaign, and the voters ultimately felt McGovern was such a threat that they re-elected Nixon overwhelmingly.

  2. Richard Daugherty - June 16, 2019

    This does not matter. The demos have already lost this election.

  3. Bandersnatch - June 16, 2019

    Billy Boy played the sax on Arsenio Hall, then he played sex in the Oval Office…

    1. David Blackmon - June 16, 2019

      You’re right – that’s what I get for relying on my memory. Thanks.

  4. jonahlomu - June 16, 2019

    Great history lesson David! Thanks for that. Learned a lot and relearned a lot. I appreciate the context in which you make your analysis.

  5. Jimmy MacAfee - June 17, 2019

    Ol’ Joe Biden has a son, e-I-e-I-o…
    HRC knew, and effectively kept Ol’ Joe out of the race.
    Funny how them chickens keep coming home to roost,
    even after they’ve flown the coop!
    Ol’ Joe Biden has a son.
    Unfortunately and sadly, the good one died;
    the other is like a stinking albatross around
    Ol’ Joe’s skinny neck.

  6. Joshua Kaufmann - June 17, 2019

    I enjoyed your historical insights on this one. But it would be more interesting if you would bet/wager a bar tab or dinner bill against someone of a differing opinion who thinks sleepy Joe will valet parked into the nomination.

    1. David Blackmon - June 18, 2019

      I’ve already done that.

    2. David Blackmon - June 18, 2019

      I won several similar bets on Trump/Clinton in 2016. Might as well cash in this time, too. It’s like stealing.

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