The Campaign Update Election Results Live Blog
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)
Ok, folks, here we go.
Unlike I did this afternoon, I am going to run the Updates down the page, to keep them from getting mixed up with all the adds. I will note each update with a number in the title, i.e., I will add “Update 1” to the title with the first update, “Update 2” with the 2nd, etc., so you’ll be able to easily know when something new is there. I’ll also send out a tweet for those who follow on Twitter.
PLEASE COMMENT – I will be following your comments and responding to as many as I can.
What to look for early:
Kentucky HD 6 and Georgia HD 6 – if the Rs are leading in both these GOP-held districts when the polls close at 7:00 ET, it’s cause for celebration. If the Ds are ahead, not so much. Unless you’re a Democrat, of course.
Trump won both of these districts easily in 2016, but the Democrats have spent tons of money trying to turn them both.
Also, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th district. That’s another the Ds are hoping to turn tonight.
If the Ds are winning in all of these districts, then their probability of taking the House becomes near-certain. If they are losing them all, then we’re going to have a late night, perhaps early morning before we know where things are going.
Indiana Senate – We will also be seeing first numbers in this race at 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT. It’s a big one, though not needed for the GOP to retain control in the Senate. CNN’s already reporting what is most likely the absentee ballots, and Republican Braun is up big over Democrat incumbent Donnelly, but the Rs always lead in the absentee votes in Indiana.
UPDATE 15: Every candidate Barack Obama campaigned for lost.
Both candidates Oprah campaigned for lost.
Republicans once again won every statewide election in Texas, as they have done in every election cycle since 1994.
Mike DeWine won the governor’s election in Ohio, fairly easly.
Fox News finally, at long last, called the Florida senate race for Rick Scott.
Kristie Noem just won the South Dakota governor’s race.
Scott Walker is neck and neck in his race in Wisconsin with 90% of the vote in.
Martha McSally leads in AZ over the despicable Kyrstin Sinema, but not safely yet. She should be ok, though, since the majority of the remaining uncounted votes are in Maricopa County, where Trump won fairly easily in 2016.
Colorado Prop 112 went down to resounding defeat, ending an effort to destroy the oil and gas industry in that state.
Matt Rosendale continues to winnow down Jon Tester’s lead in Montana, where only about 30% of the votes have been counted thus far. Gianforte has now assumed the lead in the House race, and will likely hold onto it.
As I close this down for tonight, it appears that the Democrats will end up with about 230 seats in the U.S. house to about 205 for the Republicans.
In the senate, it appears likely the Republicans will end up with 54-56 seats come January, depending on the outcomes in AZ, NV and MT. I think the Rs end up winning AZ and MT and losing NV, and end up with exactly the 55 I have been predicting since January.
That’s enough. Good night.
UPDATE 14: Fox New is projecting Hawley will defeat McCaskill, which is a big dose of justice.
John James has to his great credit made it a real race with the execrable Debbie Stabenow, but he is probably going to come up short. Sure wish President Trump had chosen to make a stop in Michigan over this past weekend. Missed opportunity there.
Andrew Gillum actually conceded the race in Florida. I fully expected him to mount a challenge. Good for him – that shows class.
For some reason, the Senate race in Florida remains un-called. I’ll call it – Rick Scott has won.
Juan Williams is making an ass of himself on Fox – time to change channels.
McSally continues to build a lead in AZ. Cool
In Texas House races, both Pete Sessions and John Culberson were defeated, largely because they both ran horrible campaigns. In Sessions’ case, at least he can point to an opponent who ran a great race: Colin Allred. Allred is a complete leftist nutjob, but he ran a terrific, positive campaign and Sessions ran some of the worst TV ads I’ve ever seen.
In Montana, Tester continues to lead Rosendale, but the gap is closing. Still no returns in from most of the rural areas of the state. Gianforte is about to overtake Kathleen Williams in the house race there.
UPDATE 13: Fox 13 in Tampa is finally calling the FL governor’s race for DeSantis. Fox, CNN, AP holding out. Why, I’m not sure. The Senate race should also be called for Rick Scott.
McSally now out to a bit of a lead over the execrable Sinema in AZ.
Tester leading Rosendale, but it is very early in MT, with none of the rural counties out there reporting yet. Gianforte also behind in the House race there, but again, it’s very early.
Hawley still whipping McCaskill, which is totes awesome.
Nevada polls close at 10:00 CT. I’m not feeling good about Heller. We’ll see.
UPDATE 12: Politico has just called the Texas Senate race for Ted Cruz. CNN is calling it, too. And now Jake Tapper is encouraging Irish Bob to run for president.
And yes, I’m watching CNN, because Fox is just a bunch of windbags pontificating. CNN has actual county-by-county analysis. C’mon, Fox, catch up here.
As expected, the early vote in the AZ senate race is very tight, with Sinema holding about a 1% lead over McSally. McSally needs to win the Election Day vote.
CNN just called ND senate race for Kevin Cramer.
Josh Hawley is sucking wind early against McCaskill in Missouri. That one surprises me. Not sure where those returns are from yet.
[Ooops, I was actually looking at old numbers in the MO race – Hawley is actually kickin butt there. Awesome.]
Depending on AZ/NV, the Rs will have somewhere between 53-56 senate seats next session. Cool.
UPDATE 11: Scott Walker has pulled into the lead in Wisconsin!
Kemp still killing Abrams in Georgia.
Not sure why no one has called the FL gov race for DeSantis – he has won.
Scott’s race is somewhat closer with Nelson, but he appears to have an insurmountable lead as well given that 99% of the vote is now counted. Just not enough votes left for the Ds.
Chris Kobach has lost the governor’s race in Kansas. It will truly suck to have a Dem governor there for the next four years.
Cruz’s lead now at 85k with still ~50 rural counties yet to report a vote. What we have to remember is that the first 4 million or so votes reported tonight in Texas were early votes. As the Election Day vote comes in, Cruz’s lead will continue to expand.
CNN now calling the House Majority for the Ds.
UPDATE 10: Cruz now down by 21k, still ~100 rural counties have yet to report.
Brian Kemp is killing Stacey Abrams in Georgia’s gubernatorial race.
Brat is losing VA 7.
Democrat McBath is leading Repub Handel in GA 6, where we finally have early votes reported.
Afraid the house is indeed gone. Dammit.
On the bright side, DeSantis and Scott are both going to win in Florida. That’s huge.
And finally, as I was typing this update, Cruz took the lead in Texas despite a big chunk of Houston’s votes coming in. His lead will probably expand the rest of the evening. But you have to give Irish Bob credit for making him sweat with his $80 million.
UPDATE 9: DeSantis and Scott are now likely to both win in Florida. What an amazing turnaround.
Braun has won Indiana.
Blackburn has won Tennessee.
Manchin has won WVA.
Kramer will win North Dakota.
John James is competing strongly in Michigan.
Cruz is 100k votes down but there are still over 100 rural counties who have not reported any votes at all to this point. Karl Rove says Cruz will win in the end because of that. I think Rove is right.
Right now, the Ds lead in 31 Red districts, the Rs lead in 5 Blue districts, and Fox News is now projecting the Democrats will gain a majority at the end of the evening.
We’ll see. I’m not convinced yet.
UPDATE 8: Barr has won KY 6. Brat is barely behind know in VY 7. If Brat can come back, that would be huge. Still a big fat ZERO votes counted in GA 6.
Both Republicans are still holding on in Florida’s statewide races with 96% of the vote counted, and it appears that the votes still outstanding are pretty evenly split between R and D areas of the state. Holy cow.
Cruz still a little behind in Texas, but most rural areas are still yet to report.
In Tennessee, the senate race is not close at this point, but will tighten as the night goes along. But I think Blackburn wins that one. [Fox just called it for Marsha!]
DeWine now in the lead in the Ohio governor’s race!
Braun still killing it in Indiana!
Kramer’s going to kill Heitcamp!
John James actually leading in the early Michigan returns.
This night is shaping up nicely, folks. Keep the faith.
UPDATE 7: I continue to be struck how much tonight is like 2016, especially in Florida statewide races. Here we sit again with 93% of the votes counted, and the races are too close to call. In 2016, everyone assumed all the outstanding votes were in the Miami/Broward area and Trump would lose. But it turned out that there were still a bunch of votes sitting uncounted in GOP areas, and in a bunch of GOP-leaning precincts in South Florida. Trump wins.
Cruz finally takes the lead in Texas, as the early vote returns start to finally come in from rural areas. He will continue to build that lead as the night goes on.
Right now, I have to say that things are stacking up pretty nicely for the Rs. Keep your fingers crossed.
UPDATE 6: Ok, things are starting to shape up now:
– Cruz is going to win by 8-10 points, based on what we are seeing early. Cool.
– Both DeSantis and Scott have now moved into leads in their races. But most of the outstanding votes are in Miami/Broward area. You have to think the Ds will win, but we thought the same in the 2016 presidential race, too.
– Barr is building his lead in KY 6.
– Bratt is holding on in VA 7. Most remaining votes are in R areas.
– Braun still killing it in Indiana.
– Still not a damn vote in in GA 6. Unreal.
– Despicable Donna Shalala has won FL 27, a Democrat pickup. Ugh.
UPDATE 5: Barr now dead even in KY 6, Brat has fallen behind, though just by a couple thousand votes. Still nothing on GA 6. What the hell?
Oops, Barr took the lead with 77% of the vote counted just as I hit “enter” on this update.
DeSantis now within 1.2%, Scott within 1.4% in Florida, as the Panhandle votes finally start coming in. Still lots of votes outstanding in Miami/Dade, though, too, though. No way to call those races yet.
Again, it’s 2016 all over again down there.
Braun retaining a strong lead on Donnelly, but he needs it for when Indiana’s larger cities start reporting votes later tonight.
Irish Bob O’Rourke is up early over Ted Cruz, but it’s just Dallas turning in its early vote totals. No worries, yet.
UPDATE 4: Brat now moving out to a significant lead in VA7. Barr has pulled within .3% in KY 6, still tons of votes to be counted.
The FL Gov and Sen races are tightening with every update. Nelson had led by as much as 6% but now up by 2. Gillum up by just 1.6.
Nothing in from GA 6 yet, unfortunately.
This feels an awful lot like 2016, doesn’t it? Yes, it does.
UPDATE 3: Brat now actually looking ok in early returns, which are most likely from urban areas. He’ll be stronger in the suburbs and rural areas.
Braun running much stronger against Donnelly right now in rural areas than expected. Well ahead of pace so far.
Can’t help noticing that CNN goes to their black anchor person every time there’s an update to be given on the Florida and Georgia governor’s races, both of which feature black candidates for the Ds. So damn ridiculous.
The encouraging thing about Florida right now is that, even though the Rs trail in the Gov and Sen races, votes are already coming in from Miami/Dade County, which is unusual.
In KY 6, D McGrath is now well ahead of R Barr. Ugh. Still early, though, and don’t know where the votes are from yet.
UPDATE 2: Ok, it’s time to say it: CNN just kicks Fox’s ass on these election night events. Fox just has a bunch of people sitting around pontificating while CNN is giving us every detail in every county in every state. I normally never tune in to CNN, but on election nights, man, there’s really no choice here.
UPDATE 1: Bill Nelson is underperforming his 2012 re-election in Florida so far, by about 5%. That was a very close race, so that again bodes well for the GOP in the Sunshine State. Most vote in so far are from heavily-Democrat Pinellas County.
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