Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)
Hey! There’s an election tomorrow! I will be live-blogging it here starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time. Please join me in the comments section for tons of fun as the results either make me look like the smartest guy on the planet or a damn fool. Could go either way.
Get out and vote for Republicans. – If you haven’t already done so, get your sorry butt out to the polls tomorrow and vote Republican. Period. There is nothing to think about here. Just find that “Straight Republican” button and hit it. Oh, and then wait and watch to make sure that your voting machine then populates the votes properly, because we have had reports of things not working properly (imagine that).
And yes, vote the straight Republican ticket, regardless of where you live. I’m in Texas, as most of you know by now, and this is the easiest decision we’ve ever had. I’m a ticket-splitter from way back, but way back was when there were still decent people running for office as Democrats. No more.
Anyone who buys into today’s Democrat agenda, which includes stuff like Antifa, assaulting Trump supporters in public places, rampant voter fraud, single-payer healthcare, raising your taxes and open borders, is not a decent person. Sorry, they just aren’t. They might be good fathers, loving mothers and otherwise good citizens, but if they support the Democrat agenda, they can no longer be described as decent human beings. That’s what 25 years of running the party on the principles of Saul Alinsky has done for them.
If you have a problem with any Republican candidate, just remember that his or her opponent is a Democrat, and your problem becomes no problem at all. Democrats are not allowed anymore to be independent operators. A guy like Irish Bob O’Rourke is promising to go to Washington and buck the system, becoming an “independent voice” for Texans.
The truth is that Irish Bob would become the de facto third senator from New York as Chuck Schumer leads him around by the nose, telling him not only how to vote on every issue, but also which approved talking points to recite during his appearances on CNN and MSNBC. Hell, if you’re Joe Manchin, Schumer even dictates which lines at the State of the Union speech you can stand and applaud. Manchin’s a three-term incumbent – you think a rookie from Texas is going to be treated any better?
The same goes for Colin Allred, the guy running against GOP incumbent congressman Pete Sessions. Allred is a very good-looking and articulate guy, promising to go to Washington and challenge San Fran Nan at every turn on behalf of Texans. The truth is that San Fran Nan would have him wrapped around her crooked little finger about 5 minutes after he lands at Reagan National Airport. Because Democrats march in lockstep on every issue. Period.
So, if you’re thinking about voting for O’Rourke or Allred, think again. They’re Democrats. If you’re thinking of voting for the Democrat (whomever it is) running against George P. Bush for Texas Land Commissioner because you don’t like Bush’s plan to turn the Alamo and surrounding grounds into a glorified amusement park, well, join the crowd. But do you think the Democrat has a better idea? Seriously? What would that be – to turn it over to the federal Department of the Interior for safe keeping?
C’mon, man. Be serious.
In the past two years, America has embarked on an almost unprecedented period of relative peace in the world and economic growth. The Trump Administration has reasserted American authority at the United Nations, NATO and all the various G-7, G-20 and whatever other G-something or other summits there are these days. The horrendous turmoil in the Middle East that resulted from the Obama-sanctioned “Arab Spring” has been greatly calmed and ISIS has been largely destroyed.
The Crazy Little Fat Guy over in North Korea hasn’t fired a missile in hostility in many months, and his main interactions with the U.S. these days involve requesting more meetings with the Secretary of State and other U.S. representatives to get approval for his next step toward decommissioning his country’s nuclear capabilities.
Russia, which invaded Crimea, Syria and the Ukraine during the Obama years, hasn’t invaded anyone since January 20, 2017. This is not a coincidence. China has been helpful with the Trump approach to North Korea, and now appears ready to make a real trade deal after five months of escalating “trade war” with the United States has begun to damage its economy.
So, after you’ve had a couple of cups of coffee and showered tomorrow morning (yes, please shower for everyone’s sake), go vote. For Republicans. Straight ticket. It’s not just the right idea, it’s your duty if you love this country. It’s the easiest decision you’ve ever had.
And now, for some final predictions:
The Republicans will gain a net 4 senate seats, defeating McCaskill in Missouri, Heitcamp in North Dakota, and some combination of Tester in Montana, Manchin in West Virginia, Nelson in Florida and Donnelly in Indiana. They will lose some combination of Heller in Nevada or McSally in Arizona. The net of all of that will be a 4-seat gain and an overall 55-seat majority for the next two years.
In the House, the Republicans hold onto their advantage, losing a net 15 seats.
That’s where I’ve been since January, and I see no reason to change now.
In some specific high-profile races:
Irish Bob “Beto” O’Rourke’s $80 million campaign will buy him 45% of the vote in his race against Ted Cruz. Four years ago, $30 million got Wendy Davis 39% of the vote. So, if the Democrats can throw about $125 million behind some chosen golden child in 2022, they might actually win a race in Texas.
But this year, Republicans will win every statewide election in Texas, as they have done in every statewide election cycle since 1994.
Republican Brian Kemp will win 52% of the vote in the Georgia governor’s race, just enough to avoid a runoff there.
In Florida, the early voting is tilting very nicely for the Republicans, who always have a significant voting edge on Election Day. Based on that, I think Ron DeSantis will eke out a very narrow win in the governor’s race over Democrat/socialist Andrew Gillum there.
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