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The Media and Pollsters are Getting Cold Feet on this Whole “Blue Wave” Thing

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

This is really not a good look for any Pope.  – This happened yesterday.  I have no idea what to say about it, other than that just happened:

Why do we have to read about this in a British news outlet? – Just when you thought the Department of Justice was completely asleep at the wheel, it goes and arrests a leaker.  The UK Daily Mail reports that one Natalie Mayflower Sours Edwards (I swear I did not make up that name) was arrested on the streets of Washington, DC on Tuesday and charged by DOJ investigators on Wednesday with crimes related to illegally leaking the private banking records of various Trump Transition Team members to the fake media outlet Buzzfeed.

When she was arrested, Ms. Mayflower Sours Edwards, an employee of the U.S. Treasury Department, was actually carrying a thumb drive that contained the records in question.  So, obviously not the brightest bulb in the Treasury Department’s light fixture.

Interestingly, Ms. Edwards (sorry, I’m not typing all that other crap anymore) leaked information related to Paul Manafort and Rick Gates, along with suspected Russian spy Maria Butina, all of whom have been subjects of Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel “investigation.”  Others whose records she leaked are not specifically identified in the complaint filed by the DOJ.

Why am I mentioning this?  Well, one of those “others” is likely to eventually be revealed to be former Trump lawyer Micheal Cohen, who became a target of the Mueller “investigation” when his own banking records were mysteriously released to several media outlets, including to Ronan Farrow at The New Yorker in May.  The U.S. news media is under-playing this story for now, but this lady with the odd name is likely to be revealed to be a pretty important player in how all of this “Russia Collusion” fantasy play morphed into a bank-and-tax fraud investigation over the course of the last year.

Oh, and one other thing:  The complaint also states that Ms. Edwards boss was leaking to reporters.  So, the arrests over at the Treasury Department might just keep on coming.  What in the hell is going on over there?

Little Mouth Always Running lives in her own little dreamcatcher world.  – The newsfakers at The Washington Post tweeted this little gem out early this morning:

Good to know.

More proof that a Lindsey Graham freed from the pernicious influence of John McCain is a vastly improved Lindsey Graham:

You go, Senator.

Today’s lesson in Democrat Mob Civility from the People’s Republic of Portland, Oregon:

Just a reminder that this is exactly the behavior that has recently been endorsed and encouraged by leading Democrats like Maxine Waters, Hillary Clinton and Eric Holder.  Keep that in mind on Election Day.

And speaking of the elections… – Some interesting pieces of information from the past couple of days show the media and pollsters who have been pushing their treasured “Blue Wave” theory for the last year now starting to back off as Election Day approaches and the actual data fails to give them comfort:

  • NBC News getting cold feet.:  “Uncertainty Over A Blue Wave:  NBC News Finds Democratic and GOP Voter Registrations at Same Levels as Past Election Cycles.”  You don’t say…
  • Speaking of cold feet, there’s Nate Silver.:  “Nate Silver’s warning about midterm predictions that journalists won’t want to hear”.  Man, it’s 2016 all over again.
  • The Times keeps getting results it doesn’t want. – New York Times live poll shows Texas Congressman Will Hurd with an 8-point lead in what was supposed to be a tossup district.
  • From our That’s Not a Valid Sample file… – CNN released a poll on the Texas Senate race on Tuesday that shows Ted Cruz leading Irish Bob O’Rourke by a 52-45 margin.  Ok, so, why am I mentioning this poll?  Because its sample included just 25% Republicans, 25% Democrats and 50% “other”.  This in a state in which the GOP had a 50% turnout edge over the Ds in the primary elections, and in which Republicans have won every statewide election since 1994.
  • Why even bother? – In Indiana’s senate race, Gravis released a poll this week purporting to show incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly with a 4 point lead over GOP challenger Mike Braun.  But the poll only surveyed 377 “likely voters”, and has a margin of error of 5.1 percent.  Which means that, in reality, we know nothing more about the true state of the Indiana senate race today than we did before that waste of time poll was released.
  • This is what you do in the final weeks of a campaign when you have tons of money and you know you are losing. – “Beto Goes Negative on Cruz in New Ads”. 

So what does this all mean?  It means you need to stop worrying about polls and stop asking me about polls.  Because, as I keep pointing out to you, most of these polls are meaningless.  Most of them are not even commissioned to actually gauge the status of a race, but to influence the direction of a race.  In fact, that is pretty much the only kind of poll we have seen throughout the duration of the Cruz/O’Rourke race, with only a few exceptions.

The best ways to gauge the status of the races are to get a grip on the overall national mood, which this year favors a pretty much status quo election, and to also look at how the candidates themselves are behaving – O’Rourke being just one of many examples available to us.  It is also obvious that the Democrat senate candidates in North Dakota, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee and Nevada are sucking wind right now, and the Democrats in West Virginia, Indiana and even New Jersey are getting very nervous.

One more time:  When all is said and done, expect the Republicans to lose 10-15 seats in the House, but not the 23 necessary for the Democrats to assume a majority there.  In the Senate, expect the Rs to gain a net 4-5 seats.  That’s been my prediction since January, and I still see no reason to adjust it.

That is all.

Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

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4 thoughts on “The Media and Pollsters are Getting Cold Feet on this Whole “Blue Wave” Thing

  1. Dan - October 18, 2018

    I hope DB’s prediction has factored in the effect of PA’s congressional redistricting created entirely by a Democrat-controlled state Supreme Court– naturally contrary to the text of the state constitution. While the prior districts provided lopsided Republican majorities, they were drawn up by the legislature in an orderly, constitutional process.

    Also, I am concerned about the automatic registration of voters in CA and some other states, arranged by Democrats obviously to provide voting credentials to illegal aliens. These both are significant changes since 2016.

  2. Gregg - October 18, 2018

    Love you daily updates!

    I believe the polls are, on average, off by ten points across the board.

    I made this 2018 prediction a year ago and nothing has changed to make me think it is not valid. My research shows that in 2016 Trump won about twenty house seats that are held by democrats.

    Also, everybody is so concerned that so many republicans are retiring this year; I say: good riddance, most were RINO fossils anyway and it will help Trump drain the swamp.

    This “resist” movement crap will only end if a red wave sweeps the nation and if a deep “blue” senate seat flips like in NJ, DE, CT, HI, or even MA.

    Then maybe “civility” can return to politics
    .
    I hope President Donald Trump (I love typing those three words also) has a plan in place to ensure the resultant violence, voter fraud, and left wing voter intimidation is dealt with severely at the polls; National Guard deployment, US Marshalls…
    we can’t allow the Soro thugs to prevail

  3. D3F1ANT - October 18, 2018

    The only Blue Wave we should expect is a DELUGE of CORRUPT FBI and Democrat operatives being sent to prison for their attempted insurrection!

  4. Jim McFarland - October 19, 2018

    No one seems to be interested in investigating Princess Paleface’s record of allegedly performing legal services in Mass. where she was not licensed to practice law. Why is it that this isn’t being looked at?

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