Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)
This is really not a good look for any Pope. – This happened yesterday. I have no idea what to say about it, other than that just happened:
Pope Francis talks with director Michael Moore during his weekly general audience, in St.Peter's Square, at the Vatican #vatican #popefrancis #michaelmoore #religion #fahrenheit119 #director #hollywood #talks #americandirector #nikond7500 #nikon200500 #n… https://t.co/cgznoQTeii pic.twitter.com/vi6MysIpbW
— Massimo Valicchia (@mvalicchia) October 17, 2018
Why do we have to read about this in a British news outlet? – Just when you thought the Department of Justice was completely asleep at the wheel, it goes and arrests a leaker. The UK Daily Mail reports that one Natalie Mayflower Sours Edwards (I swear I did not make up that name) was arrested on the streets of Washington, DC on Tuesday and charged by DOJ investigators on Wednesday with crimes related to illegally leaking the private banking records of various Trump Transition Team members to the fake media outlet Buzzfeed.
When she was arrested, Ms. Mayflower Sours Edwards, an employee of the U.S. Treasury Department, was actually carrying a thumb drive that contained the records in question. So, obviously not the brightest bulb in the Treasury Department’s light fixture.
Interestingly, Ms. Edwards (sorry, I’m not typing all that other crap anymore) leaked information related to Paul Manafort and Rick Gates, along with suspected Russian spy Maria Butina, all of whom have been subjects of Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel “investigation.” Others whose records she leaked are not specifically identified in the complaint filed by the DOJ.
Why am I mentioning this? Well, one of those “others” is likely to eventually be revealed to be former Trump lawyer Micheal Cohen, who became a target of the Mueller “investigation” when his own banking records were mysteriously released to several media outlets, including to Ronan Farrow at The New Yorker in May. The U.S. news media is under-playing this story for now, but this lady with the odd name is likely to be revealed to be a pretty important player in how all of this “Russia Collusion” fantasy play morphed into a bank-and-tax fraud investigation over the course of the last year.
Oh, and one other thing: The complaint also states that Ms. Edwards boss was leaking to reporters. So, the arrests over at the Treasury Department might just keep on coming. What in the hell is going on over there?
Little Mouth Always Running lives in her own little dreamcatcher world. – The newsfakers at The Washington Post tweeted this little gem out early this morning:
Elizabeth Warren doesn’t think her claim to have Native American DNA was a huge mistake https://t.co/h4ozZCE0CN
— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 18, 2018
Good to know.
More proof that a Lindsey Graham freed from the pernicious influence of John McCain is a vastly improved Lindsey Graham:
Lindsey Graham apparently was told he had a grandmother who was part Cherokee and now he's taking a DNA test to "beat" Elizabeth Warren in what percentage Native American he is. https://t.co/6ULUptht5R
— 💀andrew👻kaczynski🎃 (@KFILE) October 17, 2018
You go, Senator.
Today’s lesson in Democrat Mob Civility from the People’s Republic of Portland, Oregon:
WATCH THIS ANIMAL: Antifa protester tells 9/11 NYPD widow "YOUR HUSBAND SHOULD FUC*ING ROT IN THE GRAVE"; Occured in downtown Portland, Oregon pic.twitter.com/5ElvFlNTBU
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) October 18, 2018
Just a reminder that this is exactly the behavior that has recently been endorsed and encouraged by leading Democrats like Maxine Waters, Hillary Clinton and Eric Holder. Keep that in mind on Election Day.
And speaking of the elections… – Some interesting pieces of information from the past couple of days show the media and pollsters who have been pushing their treasured “Blue Wave” theory for the last year now starting to back off as Election Day approaches and the actual data fails to give them comfort:
- NBC News getting cold feet.: “Uncertainty Over A Blue Wave: NBC News Finds Democratic and GOP Voter Registrations at Same Levels as Past Election Cycles.” You don’t say…
- Speaking of cold feet, there’s Nate Silver.: “Nate Silver’s warning about midterm predictions that journalists won’t want to hear”. Man, it’s 2016 all over again.
- The Times keeps getting results it doesn’t want. – New York Times live poll shows Texas Congressman Will Hurd with an 8-point lead in what was supposed to be a tossup district.
- From our That’s Not a Valid Sample file… – CNN released a poll on the Texas Senate race on Tuesday that shows Ted Cruz leading Irish Bob O’Rourke by a 52-45 margin. Ok, so, why am I mentioning this poll? Because its sample included just 25% Republicans, 25% Democrats and 50% “other”. This in a state in which the GOP had a 50% turnout edge over the Ds in the primary elections, and in which Republicans have won every statewide election since 1994.
- Why even bother? – In Indiana’s senate race, Gravis released a poll this week purporting to show incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly with a 4 point lead over GOP challenger Mike Braun. But the poll only surveyed 377 “likely voters”, and has a margin of error of 5.1 percent. Which means that, in reality, we know nothing more about the true state of the Indiana senate race today than we did before that waste of time poll was released.
- This is what you do in the final weeks of a campaign when you have tons of money and you know you are losing. – “Beto Goes Negative on Cruz in New Ads”.
So what does this all mean? It means you need to stop worrying about polls and stop asking me about polls. Because, as I keep pointing out to you, most of these polls are meaningless. Most of them are not even commissioned to actually gauge the status of a race, but to influence the direction of a race. In fact, that is pretty much the only kind of poll we have seen throughout the duration of the Cruz/O’Rourke race, with only a few exceptions.
The best ways to gauge the status of the races are to get a grip on the overall national mood, which this year favors a pretty much status quo election, and to also look at how the candidates themselves are behaving – O’Rourke being just one of many examples available to us. It is also obvious that the Democrat senate candidates in North Dakota, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee and Nevada are sucking wind right now, and the Democrats in West Virginia, Indiana and even New Jersey are getting very nervous.
One more time: When all is said and done, expect the Republicans to lose 10-15 seats in the House, but not the 23 necessary for the Democrats to assume a majority there. In the Senate, expect the Rs to gain a net 4-5 seats. That’s been my prediction since January, and I still see no reason to adjust it.
That is all.
Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon
Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.