Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)
Remember what Ricky Bobby said: “If you ain’t first, you’re last.” – The Democrat shills in our fake national news media spent their entire day yesterday trying to convince themselves – and I suppose their audiences, though that was a secondary concern, really – that Republican Troy Balderson’s win in the Ohio congressional district 12 race on Tuesday was actually a “win” for the Democrat Party.
The news fakers at NBC even went so far as to run a web piece hilariously headlined “Democrats are Losing This Race. And they’re Thrilled About it.” Their fake newsman Chuck Todd told the giddy Today Show hosts that he thinks the Democrats are going to pick up an additional 40-60 seats in the House. Holy cow. Talk about pushing a narrative.
See, because the race was close, and it was in a congressional district that has been held by the GOP for more than 30 years, and Trump won the district in 2016 by 11 points, so that means that a close loss is actually a “win” for the losers. Get it? Nevermind that 2016 was obviously a presidential election year and that voter patterns in presidential years are entirely different than in midterm years; nevermind that voter patterns in special elections like this one are also entirely different than voter patterns in regular elections – the media needs something to keep feeding its fake “Blue Wave” narrative, and if a “moral victory” is all they got, that’s what they’ll go with.
Now, what this all really was was an effort to buck up the troops. Because the reality is that, other than the special election to fill the Alabama Senate seat left open by Attorney General Jeff Sessions way back in December of last year, the Democrats just keep losing these special elections. This consistent pattern of their beloved Democrats coming up “close, but no cigar” is no doubt causing massive collective depression in news rooms all across America, so the narrative pushers push the “moral victory.”
It’s just like when Georgia Tech loses a close one to Georgia: Yes, it’s just another loss, but the program needs to give the fans some reason to keep holding out hope that next year will be the year when the coach finally turns things around. (Hint: It won’t be.)
Meanwhile, the data and outcomes just refuse to support the narrative. Chuck Todd obviously hadn’t noticed, but the three most recent generic congressional preference polls are as follows:
Economist/YouGov: Democrats +3
Rasmussen: Democrats +4
No matter how one plays with those numbers, they do not add up to a Democrat “Blue Wave” that sweeps them into a new majority in the House of Representatives.
That IBD/TIPP poll, by the way, included a question about whether those being interviewed believe the country is on the “Right Track/Wrong Track”. It came in at 50% Right Track, 48% Wrong Track, the first national poll on this question since late January 2017 to come in with a positive margin.
The RealClearPolitics average on that polling question is currently -10%, which itself is extremely good for President Trump. Throughout Barack Obama’s entire second term in office, that question averaged in the -30s or even worse, as the public became increasingly sick of all the corruption and massive regulation brought to them by The One.
Folks, these are not polling numbers that support the notion that a big congressional turnover is coming. That congressional preference poll average is going to have to be 7% or more in favor of the Democrats for them to pick up enough seats in the House to gain control. It would have to be in double digits for them to have a real shot at doing the same in the Senate.
The movie “Talladega Nights” was about auto racing, and everyone laughs when Ricky Bobby utters his famous line, “If you ain’t first, you’re last.” Because, after all, the guys who finish 2nd and 3rd in the average NACAR race still go home with tons of money and a big trophy.
But politics is different, and the guy who finishes 2nd in a special election doesn’t go home with a trophy or a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. He just goes home. In politics, if you’re not first, you really might as well be last, and moral victories are totally for losers.
Just another day in Ricky Bobby’s right America.
That is all.
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