Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)
Note to America: Dianne Feinstein is no longer far left enough for California Democrats. – Yes, let that one sink in for a minute before you continue on.
Senator Feinstein, who has held her senate seat since 1992 and was the very liberal mayor of San Francisco from 1978 through 1988, was basically given a vote of no confidence by the executive board of her own political party in her home state on Saturday, as party delegates voted overwhelmingly to support her Democrat challenger in the November election. For those unfamiliar with California’s odd voting system, candidates from all parties run in open primaries in June, and the top two vote-getters then face off in the general election.
In the June primary, the far-left Feinstein easily bested her far, far, far, far-left opponent, state assemblyman Kevin de Leon, winning 44 percent of the vote to his 12 percent. But de Leon won the endorsement vote from the executive board members by a whopping 65 to 7 margin, with 28 percent choosing not to endorse either candidate. Breathtaking.
I’ve been around a long time and I can’t remember any long-time U.S. senator receiving this kind of overwhelming rebuke from their own political party. The only good news for Feinstein is that she’ll no doubt get 90+ percent of the vote from Republican and independent voters who will find de Leon even more radical than she is. So she’ll most likely survive to hold her senate seat into her 90s (she’s 85 now), which is precious little comfort to normal people out here in flyover country.
Speaking of the November mid-term elections, I’ve had several inquiries about where I think things are headed, so now would be a good time for a mid-year update.
Those who followed me throughout the 2016 campaign will know that I believe the overall public mood is a far bigger and more important influence over the balance of power outcome of national elections than are the nitty gritty details that the inside-the-Beltway pundits tend to focus on. This is a more prominent influence during presidential election years than in mid-terms, but it is still a major factor.
That belief is why I began telling my clients and readers in October 2015 that I believed Donald Trump would win the presidency. The clear mood of the vast majority of the public in 2016 was for change – real, fundamental change in the direction of the country after our disastrous 8-year experiment with community organizer radicalism, which had corrupted every institution of our government. Among all of the primary candidates in both parties, Donald Trump, by October 2015, was the only truly viable candidate offering real change.
So, even while micro-analysts like Nate Silver were giving Hillary a 97 percent chance of winning and most of the polls showed her holding big leads in the months leading up to Election Day, I held to the belief that the overall mood in favor of real, radical change would end up prevailing and Trump would become the next POTUS. On the Sunday prior to Election Day, I predicted he’d win 311 electoral votes, overshooting his final total by five.
The overriding public mood this far in advance of Election Day, 2018 is more difficult to read. Which, frankly, is good news for the GOP, because the absence of a clear public mood mitigates in favor of the status quo.
Thanks to the tireless efforts of the Democrat Party and its fake news media guardians, the public is more divided than at any time since perhaps 1860. The President’s base of support has only grown more loyal and unshakable over the first 19 months of his presidency, and he now polls better among self-identifying Republicans than any of his predecessors. But the radical leftist Democrat base of support has only grown more radical over the same period of time, making it very difficult to determine if the majority inertia among the electorate is for change or for preservation of the status quo.
Again, the lack of any clear indication that this will be a real change election also mitigates in favor of the GOP, which holds majorities in both houses of congress, and which is only defending 9 senate seats as opposed to 25 the Democrats must defend.
So, here’s my current thinking on the ultimate outcome:
If the election were held today, the Rs would retain control of the House – barely – and gain a bigger majority in the Senate, with maybe 54 or 55 total seats. There would be no impeachment action on the horizon, and President Trump would be an overwhelming favorite to be re-elected in 2020.
But the election is four months away, and much can change between now and November. If November comes around and nothing has changed in the current status quo related to all the Obama-era bad actors, the election will go very badly for the Rs.
Right now, the GOP base is pumped up, but it’s only because of President Trump, not due to anything the Republican congress has accomplished. The tax cuts are great, but they are also old news at this point, and voters in November are going to be asking what have you done for me lately? Congress’s failure to act on Obamacare last year and the steadfast refusal by Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell to really make a push for funding the border wall will be big issues this fall in the minds of GOP voters. Should the Senate somehow fail to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court by Election Day, that also will be a huge negative for the Republicans.
There is also great and growing dissatisfaction among the GOP base with Attorney General Jeff Sessions and the lack of any real law enforcement action being taken against the myriad bad actors within his Department. If we get to November and no one has been indicted, Rod Rosenstein still has his job, Robert Mueller is still indicting Russian ham sandwiches at strategic moments, Peter Strzok still has his security clearances, Andrew McCabe and James Comey are still walking around free and unindicted men, and Hillary Clinton still appears to be immune from the laws of the land, then GOP voter enthusiasm will fall through the floor.
If, on the other hand, November comes around and a bunch of indictments have been served on a bunch of these terrible people and maybe Hillary Clinton and John and Tony Podesta to boot, then the GOP will pick up net seats in the elections and possibly finish the increasingly-radicalizing Democrat Party off for a generation.
It is not an overstatement to say that the entire future of our country hinges on the real nature of Jeff Sessions. Is he just another corrupt Washington, D.C. swamp rat? Or has he, along with Michael Horowitz, John Huber and others just been biding his time, executing a plan that will result in the beginning of real enforcement actions following the issuance of Horowitz’s report on the abuse of the FISA process several weeks from now?
Good questions. The time for finding out is growing short.
Just another day in Jeff Sessions is holding all the keys America.
That is all.
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