Schweikart: What to Watch for on Election Night

Guest Piece by America’s History Teacher, Larry Schweikart

Confession: I rarely watch conservative, or so-called conservative, news sites. You can get some information that way, but I find it much more instructive to watch the reactions of liberals to the stories of the day. That is an instant indicator of who is winning and losing. For example, if the Washington Post says “Trump must change tone or face loss,” you know that Trump’s tone is deadly effective. Or, if Politico headlines “Some Senator Say McConnell Moving Too Fast on Barrett Nomination,” you know that Yertle is moving at light speed (for a tortoise) and that the confirmation is assured.

So on election night, what are the signals that Donald Trump is winning or losing?

  • Expect any blue state that they can call for Joe Biden will be called within a nanosecond of the polls closing. You can expect Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts to be called immediately.

However, if you do not get instant calls on such states as Virginia or Pennsylvania, then it’s a fight. Most expect because of the vote by mail/early voting in the Keystone State that ballots will be counted for days. But Virginia may be a different story. On election night 2016, Virginia’s call was late as Trump led well into the night until the Northern Virginia area finally came in. Rule of thumb: if they can call a state for Biden, they will do so as fast as humanly possible.

  • Expect the Florida call, despite an obvious Trump win there, to be delayed as much as they can. I expect Trump will win Florida by at least 250,000 votes. Full disclosure: I said this in 2016 and was surprised the margin was closer. Nevertheless, there will be a moment when all that remains on the Florida map is a sea of northern red counties and the Panhandle.
  • Watch Michigan. Michigan doesn’t have “Republican” and “Democrat” ballots so tracking voter registration is tough there. I have relied on “TargetSmart,” a Democrat outfit that uses “modeling” to predict votes. How does this work? Well, if you are white, older, a gun owner, non-college educated or only two-year college educated, go to church, TargetSmart will label you a Republican. If you’re an urban black female, you will immediately be tossed in the Democrat box. Michigan has steadily not only trended toward Trump but also John James, who now has a two-point lead in his senate race. It’s inconceivable that Trump would trail James, so it’s reasonable to guess that Trump is up at least two in Michigan (as some of today’s polls suggest). Michigan has a Republican legislature, has far fewer outstanding ballots than does Pennsylvania, and is much more likely to be called early. Michigan, this year, will likely be the first breach in “Hillary’s blue wall” (as they referred to the Rust Belt trio of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.) An early Michigan call means the only hope Biden would have would be an upset in Arizona and regaining Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, while holding Nevada, Minnesota, and all the other traditionally blue states.
  • Once Michigan is called and Arizona is grudgingly assigned to Trump, I think even the Hoax News networks will have to call the election. I think we will know the winner that night. Once that happens, Pennsylvania’s delayed ballots become irrelevant and may be wrapped up quickly.

As you may know, Richard Baris—America’s most accurate pollster along with Trafalgar—and Tracy Beanz and I will be doing a live election night webcast. We expect to be able to call these races sooner than the legacy media. However, some other things to watch for:

  • The John James, Thom Tillis, and Tina Smith senate races. If James and Tillis win, Trump will almost certainly carry those states. If Smith is struggling, Jason Lewis may sneak into a seat that a month ago was on no one’s radar. Then all eyes turn to Martha McSally and Susan Collins. If those two Republican ladies survive, Republicans would be looking at a net gain in the senate of two. The only current nearly-sure loser among Republican senators is Colorado’s Cory Gardner—but even he has a spark of life, given that his opponent, John Hickenlooper, has committed more errors than the Bad News Bears. He may still screw up a race that was all but won.
  • The black and 18-24 turnout. Some pundits are trying to claim that the “Yut” vote is up this year. Well, I never thought of a 29 year-old as a “youth.” These surveys include as “young people” 18-29, whereas all my predictions were specific to college-aged kids, 18-24. That age group is most definitely down. Also, if the black turnout is down (as it already appears to be in North Carolina), this will allow for much earlier modeling and predictions about outstanding races.

Finally, if the networks don’t call the House at 8:01 as Fox News did in 2018, we will probably be looking at a tight race for 17-20 seats that would decide control. But if you tune into CNN by mistake and they all have glum faces, you don’t need to wait for the state by state calls.

Larry Schweikart is the co-author, with Michael Allen, of the New York Times #1 Bestseller, A Patriot’s History of the United States, author of Reagan: The American President, and founder of the Wild World of History, a history curriculum website featuring full courses in US History and World History Since 1775, including teacher’s guide, student workbook, maps/graphs/charts, tests/answer keys, and video lessons accompanying every unit (www.wildworldofhistory.com).

 

That is all.

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is the only real conservative alternative to Drudge, and deserves to become everyone’s go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

11 thoughts on “Schweikart: What to Watch for on Election Night

  1. Grant - October 26, 2020

    Larry has a stronger stomach than I do. I simply can’t stand watching smug Libtard Presstitutes calling states for the Donkeys at the first opportunity and delaying calling states that are clearly trending for the GOP.

    I will also never forget Election Night 2000. I was sick to my stomach after Florida got called for Gore. I was pissed off when I learned later that GOP voters in the Florida Panhandle (Central Time Zone) turned around and went home after the call. So, now my motto is, “Screw the Media reports, get your ass to the polling station.”

  2. D3F1ANT - October 26, 2020

    They’re gonna melt down like Chernobyl when Trump beats them again. Luckily the BLM/Antifa terrorists raze their own cities full of their own voters when they do flip their wigs.

    1. Jimmy MacAfee - October 26, 2020

      They’ve burnt almost all that can be burnt, and any other place they choose to go will be ready, and so will the DOJ – to deputize, deputize, deputize! (That is, in places where judges won’t prosecute.)

  3. Stuartswede - October 26, 2020

    Thanks Larry, very interesting and insightful. I watched 2 of the 3 rallys today, and will never tire of calling Mr.Trump my President. He showed videos of sloppy Joes’ take on fracking and China, and his positions are totally untenable. Trump truly loves this country, and is leaving it all on the field. He is not taking a dime in salary, but works 24/7 for you and I. We’re not worthy.

  4. Jimmy MacAfee - October 26, 2020

    ACB just got sworn in – thank G0D!

    There will be more in the very near future. And Justice Thomas may well be the next Chief Justice. Things aren’t looking so great for the present one.

    1. Boarwild - October 26, 2020

      How would/could they get rid of Roberts?

      1. Gregg - October 27, 2020

        Impeachment or a forced retirement due to Epsteingate or some other skeleton in his closet. I don’t believe the CJ has the thick skin of the career pols and will look to probably get out while the getting is good like a lot of other D-rats and R-rats when the schiff starts hitting the turbine windmills aimed at the swamp

        His excuse will be the tried and true: “to spend more time with the family”.

        Would love to see Clarence Thomas as CJ, and as soon as he retires make ACB the CJ and really piss off the Left. Remember the “conservative” rookie Mister Roberts was named the CJ as soon as he was sworn in so that Bush Jr could avoid another senate fight after CJ Rehnquist died. Also, remember: Jr. originally wanted his council Harriet Myers to be his pick so that we would probably get another nothing empty suit (closet liberal) Souter like justice like his a-hole dad picked in the early nineties. Jr. quietly withdrew Myers when his GOP support told him hell no!

  5. Stuartswede - October 26, 2020

    Not a single other network that I could find carried the swearing in of ACB except FOX. As well as her speech which was excellent. They Suck.

  6. Stuartswede - October 26, 2020
  7. RetiredGuy - October 26, 2020

    OANN & Rightside Broadcasting carried it as well.

  8. Stuartswede - October 27, 2020

    My point was that none of the communist networks said one peep about it at the time.

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