The Sorry State of the Polling Industry

Guest Piece From Gregg Updike

Why do we pay attention to the Polls?  For that matter why do we keep electing and reelecting Democrats?  Why do we keep listening to the lying media especially when it pertains to President Trump?  In every case, all the above are at least 90% wrong with truth and policy.

Yesterday’s NBC-Wall Street Journal “Poll” came out and said that Biden has a fourteen (14) point lead on Trump.  That is flat out wrong as no presidential candidate, especially a largely successful incumbent, ever loses by anything near double digits.

I have always been fascinated by polls and their supposed influence which they are not supposed to do.  At best, polling is an inexact “science”.  If you were to look at how polls are conducted and want to assume they are on the up and up, you must realize it often takes hundreds of calls to get one respondent to actually talk to the pollster.

Assuming the poll is fair and unbiased, a huge assumption especially now, there are too many variables that are beyond the control of the pollster:

  1. Land lines which often tend toward to a specific older demographic voter versus cell phones
  2. Respondents deliberately lying to or deceiving the pollster
  3. Shy Republican/Trump supporters either not responding honestly or are genuinely fearful of retribution by the Left’s anti-democracy radical mob. Who wants to expose themselves to grief when people are getting attacked, shamed, or assaulted for wearing a red (not necessarily TRUMP MAGA/KAG) hat, getting their car or home trashed for a MAGA/KAG bumper sticker or yard sign?
  4. With all the telemarketing, who wants to divulge any sort of personal information to any cold-calling stranger?

The reality is most polling organizations are set up to manipulate and influence public opinion rather than reflect a snapshot of public opinion.  This phenomenon occurs when polls are designed to be the news story which has been increasingly occurring on a grand scale since at least the Clinton administration.

It is often said that statistics don’t lie, but statisticians do, and pollsters are nothing more than statisticians.

Now, sprinkle in the agenda of most polling organizations:

  1. Oversampling one political party over another – I am amazed they report the polling sample. The actual breakdown is close to 33% Democratic, 33% Republican, and 33% Independent. With all the #Walkaway movements, there is no way a poll that oversamples Democratic voters would ever be accurate.
  2. Asking loaded questions designed to elicit specific responses. I have responded honestly to a handful of pollsters over the years and have qualified many yes or no responses with certain caveats. The pollster patiently listens and acts like he/she is taking my input, but they do not as there is no option for them to do so. The one size fits all question is designed to generate a desired result and works as well as the one size fits all government programs like Obamacare.
  3. When there is an effort to get an equal number of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, ZIP Codes are often employed to ensure they question soft suburban “educated” Republican women and men who are predisposed to reject Trump or any other strong conservative just because the Democratic Party’s platform sounds nicer. (One must wonder why so many liberals/moderates identify as “Republicans” and why so many “Reagan Democrats” who are basically conservative still identify as Democrats?)
  4. Another trick is to poll adults, versus registered voters, versus LIKELY voters. Likely voters are really the only ones who matter because they are the ones who are likely to actually vote. Age, Race, Gender, employment status and location are all variables that are sought to influence the poll’s results.
  5. Swing states versus the whole country. Oversampling California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, and New Jersey voters rather than Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina voters, not to mention the deep red states, also contribute to skewed results.
  6. The actual number of the poll respondents – anything under a thousand in a big state or nationally is a big red flag where accuracy is concerned.
  7. The “margin of error” anything over three percent should render the poll result meaningless.

The most important factor to consider when listening to these poll results is who is conducting the poll(s).  There is no confirming audit as to the truthfulness of the poll results and the “internals” of the given poll are suspect when organizations like the Wall Street Journal/NBC or the ABC/WAPO and other Leftist outfits, including universities, conduct opinion polls.  They are so biased in all their ‘news’ with so many “anonymous sources”, especially concerning Trump, why wouldn’t they just flat out lie about their polls?  I am surprised they admit to the political registration samples and other obviously biased criteria; I guess they want to try to show some honesty and assume that the vast majority just reads the bad news for Trump headlines.  When there is no confirmation of their polling criteria, why admit to the oversampling of Democrats by ten percent?

Some polls are more creditable than others and the best, most accurate, polls usually have no media or network affiliation.  The best pollsters often ask these questions or use these matrixes:

  1. Ask the respondents if they are willing to be polled again during the election cycle.
  2. Ask the respondents who their friends or neighbors are voting for.
  3. Poll only likely voters.

Finally, no one should pay any attention to any wild outlier polls, or any polling organization that reports a ten plus lead for any candidate, and then tightens up the race near the election to protect their reputation.  Also, no one should pay attention to any poll with outrageous results three or more months prior to the election as so much can change (the death of Ruth Bader-Ginsburg, Trump getting Covid-19, changing economic reports to name a few examples) in the month prior to the election.  Always be aware of the agendas behind the organizations who conduct the polls; if they always report Trump stinks, what “public opinion” do you think their poll is going to reflect which is designed to dispirit the conservative vote?

What I would really like to see are the political parties’ internal polling results; they tell a much more accurate picture of public opinion – watch how the campaigns change their message on a dime – like when they drop the anti-police narrative and distance themselves from Antifa/BLM for example.  Policy shifts are all driven by internal polling.  Particularly on the Democratic side since at least the Clinton era; these people live and die by polls and focus groups.

That is all.

Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is the only real conservative alternative to Drudge, and deserves to become everyone’s go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.

26 thoughts on “The Sorry State of the Polling Industry

  1. Reply
    Stuartswede - October 7, 2020

    Sorry, but, well, duh.

    1. Reply
      brian - October 7, 2020

      You’d be surprised at how many people have never processed this information and simply have no idea. To us conservative news junkies we know this because we tend to read and research more than the ‘average’ joe.

      Another great article Gregg. many thx

      1. Reply
        Stuartswede - October 7, 2020

        Please pardon my cynicism, I didn’t make the connection. Great piece Gregg, congratulations. I am still PO’d that someone compared DB to Bowe Bergdahl yesterday for condemning Barr and Durham and their continued inaction. And as of today continues to do so.

  2. Reply
    Ben Colder - October 7, 2020

    I don’t trust the polls the way I understand it you can make them come out anyway you want.Another reason is they think they can sway the way people vote and maybe to a certain extent but I just don’t believe there are that many people who are undecided I have my mind made up who I will vote for before they even start the election circus.

  3. Reply
    Steve - October 7, 2020

    1) the people who pay for the poll get the answer they want 70% of the time (from NPR)
    2) Trump’s victory was off by twice the error of the estimate of the polls
    3) We need leaders with vision, not panderers telling me what I want to hear

    Increase the error of the estimate until polling is worthless
    If you are polled, flip a coin 3 times
    2 heads – lie
    2 tails – truth
    1 head, 1 tail – refuse to answer

  4. Reply
    Jimmy MacAfee - October 7, 2020

    There is a US military doctrine promoted by Michael Aquino, PhD, who co-wrote a paper with Paul Vallely: it was about making the enemy think they could not win.

    This is a game we’ve played militarily, but also a game others have used against us – militarily and politically. One of the most glaring examples, politically, was when Jeb and Hillary Rotten were pronounced to be “inevitable.” One problem: the voters didn’t buy that sack of horseshit. Both would have continued to sell us out to both Russia and China, because – well, that’s what they do.

    The fake polls are trying the same old Satanic crap, penned by a Satanist, with a confusing co-authorship. (How’d you like to join forces with a demented Eddie Munster?)

    Momentum was supposed to bring Camelface to the forefront, because she was the Obumbler candidate – until Tulsi kneecapped her. We’ll see if Pence has the guts to continue the same line, or if he’ll do a Romney, who should advertise for KFC (“you know it’s chicken, but pretend it’s nutritious, too.”) With apologies to KFC.

    Fact is, polling is nothing more than a pep rally for idiots.

    1. Reply
      Jimmy MacAfee - October 7, 2020

      Aquino is a Satanist, starting the Temple of Set. Why Vallely would work with such a man is disturbing, since Vallely seems like a patriot (as far as I know.)

    2. Reply
      brian - October 7, 2020

      aaaand the agency that uses dis-information the most, is evil to the core, run by communists almost from its inception, runs nazi style experiments on its own citizenry, gets billions in tax payer funds, runs its own human and drug trafficking business earning billions in dark money, runs psyops against every government on the planet including its own with impunity like possibly the CIA!?!?

      Nah… They’d never run a conservative dis-information op within US soils. That’d be immoral and against the law /s

      1. Reply
        Jimmy MacAfee - October 7, 2020

        Potent satire.

    3. Reply
      brian - October 7, 2020

      “Fact is, polling is nothing more than a pep rally for idiots.”

      Have to agree…

      Funny thing is tho is that the media polls fool nobody. Those ‘believing’ these polls are willfully ignorant and facts only go towards enraging those that believe them.

      People are not fooled in the least. The polls that really count and are easily verifiable to the everyday citizenry are the polls displayed in yard signs, the lineups to a Trump event, the vehicle and boat parades, the hats and t-shirts that are turning up everywhere, the media spewing its hatred of the electorate when the crowds of thousands rally.

      Only thing missing to date is an airplane rally… give it time I guess.

      Its a war… and the enlistment on the conservative side is sky rocketing upwards.

  5. Reply
    Tyrone o'Sorus - October 7, 2020

    Excellent article.

    Two thoughts on media polls as part of Democrat psyops:

    By reporting the a higher percentage of Democrats, the pollster plants the idea in the uninformed that the Democrats are a majority in the population at large, as well as painting the Republicans as the minority party with generally unpopular positions.

    Second, besides attempting to sway voters with their results, the most valuable product of the published polling is to provide justification and cover for the results of Democrat voter fraud. Who can argue with a fraudulent 1-2% margin of victory after a couple thousand votes are “found” when all the polls said the Democrat was going to win by 14%.

    Conversely, if they are unable to overcome the Republican margin of victory, the Democrats can point to the polls as evidence of Republican fraud.

    Ammunition for the media to silence any Republican complaints with the outcome.

    1. Reply
      Gregg - October 7, 2020

      Excellent amplyfing remarks Tyrone,

      The difference this year is President Trump won’t cowed by bogus fraudulent results in the several key swing states or by the media and the Dems pissing and moaning of him being a “dictator”. He will not be the Nixon of 1960 when he accepted the results of a very close election when there was ample and obvious evidence of voter fraud in Cook County (Dailey’s Chicago) and in LBJ’s Texas.

      1. Reply
        Silas - October 7, 2020

        The dictator and Hitler smears have been over the top. And as I have pointed out before, were Trump actually what they claim him to be, all his detractors and critics would have had their doors broken down in the middle of the night and then taken away, never to be seen or heard from again, No trial, nothing.

        Pathetic, sick minded fools.

  6. Reply
    Gregg - October 7, 2020

    The Left never changes its playbook. They apparently have believed for years (undoubtably confirmed by focus groups) that showing a huge polling deficit by Republican candidates dampens conservative motivation and reduces the number of votes for the Republican.

    It doesn’t seem to occur to the Left that their constant over the top denigration for the past four years of the Right and of Trump and his supporters might just energize them to vote FOR Trump in landslide proportions. I think that is far more likely this year than ever before because Trump has finally given the people, his people, a reason to vote FOR him. There is a big difference in voting against a candidate – and that is the only argument the Dems have – as opposed to voting FOR someone. In fact ‘Trump Sucks’ is btfsplk’s only real message along with a bunch of radical crap (which even he denounced as the “leader of the Democratic Party” in the debate) that the majority of the country does not support – as opposed to having a president (who has kept his promises) that people can vote for and enthusiastically support.

    I didn’t vote for Ace McLame or Mutt because I enthusiastically liked their platform; I was only voting against what I knew ‘the One’s’ policies were going to be or were proven to be in 2012.

    President Trump has given any pro-America person a real reason to vote FOR him; FOR a presidential candidate for the first time since 1984.

  7. Reply
    Cribdawg - October 7, 2020

    All polls have been garbage since at least the Clinton years. The democRats spend billions every year on polls they know are fake in order to repeatedly try and lie cheat and steal their way to power. Db doing everything to block comments is a disgraceful way to suppress free speech as well

    1. Reply
      reaganvoter - October 7, 2020

      Bingo!Why would any conservative talk to a hostile pollster?

    2. Reply
      brian - October 7, 2020

      “Db doing everything to block comments is a disgraceful way to suppress free speech as well”

      So how is it Db is censoring and blocking speech?!?

      As long as I’ve been here I’ve seen none of this. You are free to speak your mind. Perhaps the long load times and dropped postings are what you interpret as speech censorship. But if you’d been inclined to read a little you’d have discovered that the site has been under constant attack which does affect load and dropped postings.

      So rather than calling ‘help help I’m being repressed’ perhaps you should read more or at the least ask some questions about it. Besides if Db was doing everything to censor your posts, your post wouldn’t be showing now and I wouldn’t be responding to it.

    3. Reply
      Jimmy MacAfee - October 7, 2020

      DB has very infrequently blocked comments, and those I’ve seen that he’s scrubbed have been worth scrubbing – or flushing; most of the time, it’s the network – as most of us regular posters will attest.

    4. Reply
      Stuartswede - October 7, 2020

      Db has never done anything to prohibit free speech, bitch!

  8. Reply
    Nabi Rasch - October 7, 2020

    But thats how polsters make their money. I was a PR executive before I moved along.It didn’t take me long to learn that the polsters we hired came up wih pretty much the exact figures our director wanted to see.

  9. Reply
    Jimmy MacAfee - October 7, 2020

    This just in! Chris Wray’s FBI just defeated ISIS! Terrorism! Islamists! Jihadi John!

    Talk about someone trying desperately to change the subject away from his own collusion with the Clinton/Obama/Brennan/Comey cabal! Next he’ll remind us of former glories of the FBI, in order to pretend that the department currently sucks ass – like where is the Weiner laptop, and all the documents the PRESIDENT has ordered to be unsealed?

    Chris the Redactor! Why don’t you just blot out your own effing name, you pathetic pile of donkey dung?

    Let’s take a poll: how many think Chris Wray has sat his square but squarely in the middle of a vat of liquid Teflon, hoping that the only flak he’ll receive is aimed at his posterior?

    Poll starts now.

    1. Reply
      Stuartswede - October 7, 2020

      Schiff’s nose and head would block the liquid Teflon. So I vote no.

      Funny how the President whooped ISIS butt 2 years ago, and the FBI is just now catching up.

      1. Reply
        brian - October 7, 2020

        They didn’t want to rush into anything???

  10. Reply
    brian - October 7, 2020

    I know what happened…

    Trump was told that isis had been defeated and routed completely.

    Someone in the room said ‘No Way!!!”

    Wray just figured out it wasn’t about him. He’s a little skow.

  11. Reply
    Robert William Nagel - October 7, 2020

    There are two sayings on point. Mark Twain’s, “Figures don’t ;ie, but liars figure” and British Lord Beaconfield’s, “There are lies, damn lies and statistics”. His was a mixed metaphor, apt but incorrect.

  12. Reply
    Mimi - October 7, 2020

    I would suspect that the purpose of these biased polls is so that Dems can call “voter fraud” or “we need to count ALL the (ineligible) votes” when election day comes in case Trump is ahead.

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