Guest Piece from America’s History Teacher, Larry Schweikart
As the fallout from the China Virus continues to spread—though the China Virus itself is largely contained now—the political ramifications are not raining down equally on all. As of this morning, Gallup has President Trump at over 49%—his highest ever in that poll—and Scott Rasmussen’s partnership poll also has him over 49%. IDB/TIPP has Trump now tied with the demented Joe Biden for the first time, with Biden slipping several points from just a month ago.
This is more than just Biden’s “woman trouble.” It represents a growing understanding by the American people that not just anyone can do the job of president, and that Biden is mentally incapacitated. While I don’t do polls, I’m guessing that Trump already has sailed past the lowest point he will see in 2020.
And I think the Democrats know it.
This has powerful implications for the state elections though. Those governors who have not locked down their states, particularly Kristi Noem of South Dakota, are being feted. The people of South Dakota actually threw a parade in their governor’s honor! Don’t expect that to occur in other red states, where some tyrannical or duped governors remain hostage to their doctors’ flawed charts and models. In Ohio, Mike DeWine—never a strong politician—has ceded almost all authority in his state to Amy Acton, the Department of Health Director.
Arizona’s Doug Ducey, coming off a 14-point win in 2018 (against an admittedly lame opponent) similarly is a prisoner of charts and graphs. Ducey’s actions—so far more than those of DeWine—seems to be sparking protests in the traditionally independent Arizona electorate. Protests are picking up steam, and Ducey was forced to threaten fines and jail time for any business that opened early. Ducey was a rising star who expected to move on to bigger things.
Not. Any. More.
On the other hand, some stars continue to shine. Besides Noem, Georgia’s Brian Kemp has likely cemented his position with Georgia re-opening; Ron DeSantis in Florida likewise is looking wise and fearless; and of course Greg Abbott in Texas, while not opening gyms or hair salons, nevertheless is moving in the right direction and refusing to use state coercive power to make people wear masks.
The flop governors will likely create a chasm in their states between themselves and those who support reopening, including President Trump. In Arizona, Martha McSally’s fate likely will rest on whether she forcefully comes out for reopening or (again) tries to play it safe and hide. Her comments on the Chicoms’ role in this have been encouraging so far.
Meanwhile, Democrat governors like “Comfortable” Ralph Northam may well have flipped Virginia in the 2020 election. Certainly much of the perpetually-paid beltway NOVA area will not mind a paid holiday, but the rest of the state may grow restless enough to vote for Trump in the fall. Prior to the China Virus, I thought such a flip was impossible.
If the Democrat governors maintain the lockdowns long enough, and if they become painful enough, it very well may move still other states to Trump in the fall. For every flop, there might be a flip.
Larry Schweikart is co-author with Michael Allen of A Patriot’s History of the United States, is author of Reagan: The American President, and has just unveiled his new US History teaching curriculum for grades 8-12 at www.wildworldofhistory.com.
That is all.
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