Today’s Campaign Update, Part II (Because the Campaign Never Ends)
2020 is shaping up to be the most unique election cycle of modern times. – Regular readers will know of my contention that the quadrennial presidential election cycles always end up following one of two patterns, based on the overall dynamics at play within the national electorate.
If the general attitude among the population is one of satisfaction and complacency, then we end up having a status quo election, one that preserves the general balance of power in Washington, DC. If the general attitude among voters is one of dissatisfaction and unrest, we end up with a change election, one that shifts the balance of power from one party to the other.
By mid-2015, it had become obvious that the overriding attitude afoot across the nation was running in favor of a change election. By October of that year, it was obvious that Donald Trump would be the GOP nominee and that the DNC was going to fix its nominating process for the Pantsuit Princess. Given that the Coughing Crook was proudly running on the promise that her first term would basically be Barack Obama’s third term, it was obvious to me that Trump, the only candidate in the race promising significant change, would end up winning the general election.
2012 was a classic status quo election: Despite growing unrest with the radical leftist nature of the Obama regulatory regime, more Americans than not were in a mood to give him a shot at a second term, a reality bolstered by the fact that the Democrats were able to increase their Senate majority and cut into the GOP’s majority in the House that year. Mitt Romney’s ineptitude as a candidate certainly played a role, but the truth is that he never really had much chance of overcoming the overall voter inertia at play that year.
In large part due to the withering, unrelenting assault on President Trump by the Democrats and their corrupt toadies in the national news media, and due to Trump’s own unorthodox approach to his job, this year has become more difficult to read than it otherwise would be. Were traditional journalistic norms still in place in the media, an election featuring a president who has had so much success and who has kept pretty much every promise he made in his first election campaign would without any question at all end up as a status quo election, with his party having a strong shot at regaining the majority in the House.
But the undeniable success that the media has had in brainwashing a large segment of the public, along with the upheaval taking place within the Democrat Party and its nominating process, has created at least the perception of a potential change election coming.
So, which is it going to be? I think it’s going to be both: A change election within the confines of the Democrat Party and its nominating process, but a status quo election come November.
The most interesting aspect to watch over the next 8 months will be to see if the radical change happening within the Democrat Party will frighten the public to the extent that it decides to flip the House and return control of all levers of national power back to the GOP.
Newt Gingrich got it exactly right on Fox News last night when he said that Bernie Sanders is “the true Democratic Party.” Sanders winning in Iowa and New Hampshire and today in Nevada is not, contrary to what the leaders of the Party want us to believe, some fluke. Sanders keeps winning because the Democrat Party is now a majority socialist/Marxist party. Sanders is now the clear front-runner for the nomination because he is where the energy in the Democrat voter base happens to be.
He wasn’t quite there in 2016, but the tide of sentiment among Democrat voters has now reached the critical mass of endorsing outright socialism. Thus, the Party’s so-called “moderate” faction, who prefer socialist solutions dressed up in pretty costumes and gobs of lipstick, will be faced this July with the choice of either jumping on board the Commie train or finding another home. 2020 is the year that the Democrat Party’s inevitable inflection point arrives.
Feel the Bern. Feel the change.
Just as was the case with the Party’s takeover by George McGovern radicals in 1972, though, the radicals in the Democrat Party today are out of step with the vast majority of the electorate, and a Bernie Sanders candidacy will go down in flames not seen since Ronald Reagan’s destruction of Walter Mondale in 1984. A public that Gallup says is more satisfied with the status quo than it has been in decades is not going to put an outright communist into the White House.
So, come November, the status quo will pretty much inevitably prevail despite the change election taking place within the Democrat Party’s nominating process. Some will try to equate this to 2016, when Trump forced a similar shaking out to take place within the GOP, but that’s not correct. Remember, the change Trump represented was in step with the overall public desire for change that year. That election was change all the way, and the results proved it.
So, get ready for that rarest of rarities: A presidential election year in which a change election within the process of one party works to ensure a status quo general election outcome in favor of the other party.
Only in America.
That is all.
Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever. Whatfinger.com is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time.