Today’s Campaign Update
(Because The Campaign Never Ends)
Hey, who is Marianne Williamson? – I honestly have no idea who this person is, but the newsfakers at Politico think it is news that a person named Marianne Williamson is running for the Democrat Party’s presidential nomination in 2020. According to Politico, she is a “spiritualist” – whatever that means – who ran an independent campaign for a California congressional seat in 2014, and failed. That race was won by Ted Lieu, one of the most despicable Democrats in today’s congress, so maybe we should be wishing she had won instead. She certainly could not be any worse.
Williamson’s main claim to legitimacy in the political arena appears to be that she is a “pal of Oprah Winfrey.” Given that the two high-profile Democrat candidates Oprah campaigned for this year – Florida’s Andrew Gillum and Georgia’s Stacey Abrams – have been declared loooooooooosers in their gubernatorial races over the last 24 hours, it’s hard to see what value the Oprah seal of approval really has any more.
But hey, in case you’re interested and have actually heard of Marianne Williamson, she’s running. There you go.
Speaking of despicable California congressmen, Eric Swalwell did this on Friday:
Worst. Comeback, EVER. ??????????????? https://t.co/4zz4EJJlcs
— David Blackmon (@GDBlackmon) November 16, 2018
Yes, all you gun owners out there, Democrat Rep. Swalwell responded to a guy on Twitter who said that the government would have to kill him to take his guns away by assuring the guy that the government would indeed kill him, with nukes. This promise to nuke gun owners will no doubt play extremely well with the demented Democrat base voters and dramatically enhance Swalwell’s chances in his 2020 presidential run.
Can’t wait to get me one of them “Swalwell 2020: Nuke ’em for Peace!” bumper stickers.
Holy crap. You seriously cannot make this stuff up.
And since we’re speaking of despicable Democrat politicians… – The aforementioned Oprah acolyte Stacey Abrams “halted” her Georgia gubernatorial run on Friday, but made it clear she would never “concede” the race to the actual winner, Republican Brian Kemp.
In keeping with the Democrat Party’s 25-year campaign to declare every Republican win to be somehow illegitimate, Abrams blamed her loss not on the fact that she received more than 50,000 fewer votes than her opponent, but on “voter suppression”, which is her way of saying all Republicans are racists and she only lost because of their racism, or something. Because of course she did.
No, Texas is not turning blue anytime soon. – We’ve seen a lot of elections “experts”, i.e., liberals in the fake news media, offering sage analyses of the Texas election results and coming up with the conclusion that the state of Texas is going to turn blue as soon as 2020.
Let me assure you, as a 7th generation Texan, that ain’t gonna happen.
Yes, the Democrat Party made gains in Texas in the 2018 elections. The Dems flipped two congressional seats, 2 state senate seats and a dozen seats in the state’s house of representatives. It’s a BLUE WAAAAAAAVE, right? Um, no, not really.
What those results mean is that the Texas congressional delegation is now 23 Rs and 13 Ds. The Rs will hold a 19-12 edge in the state senate, and 83 of the 150 seats in the state house.
Oh, and here’s the other thing all these “experts” fail to mention: The Republicans won every statewide election held this year. Every one of them, from the governor’s office all the way down to the land office race. Yes, the winning margins were closer than they have been in the past 5 election cycles, but let’s think about why that happened.
I can explain the majority of it in two words: Beto O’Rourke. His race against Ted Cruz was the first race on everyone’s ballot this year. O’Rourke, thanks to a flood of money from Hollywood and New York, was able to pour about $80 million into that race, outspending Cruz by a factor of about 3 to 1. Just above the senate race on the ballot was the option to vote straight Republican or straight Democrat tickets.
O’Rourke ran a mostly-positive campaign that excited a lot of voters in Texas. And thousands of those voters, perhaps hundreds of thousands of them, who might have otherwise voted for many Republicans, expressed their excitement for Irish Bob O’Rourke and saved a bunch of time by simply marking the box for the straight Democrat ticket.
There is simply no question that the ability to pour such a gargantuan amount of money into a single statewide race heavily influenced every race down the ballot. If you think the Republicans in Texas are going to get caught flat-footed in the money race again in 2020 or subsequent election cycles, you are going to be highly disappointed when those years come around.
I first started working Texas politics in 1996, two years after George W. Bush had become governor by defeating Ann Richards. At that time, all the “wise people” in Austin, all the analysts and lobbyists and reporters, assured me that this Republican thing was just a temporary aberration and that the Democrats would sweep back into power in the 1998 elections. Instead, the Rs won every statewide office and took control of the state’s house of representatives and senate.
After that election, all these “wise people” kept assuring me that by 2002 or 2004, the state’s growing community of Hispanic voters would sweep the Democrats back into power. Here it is 2018, and it’s now a quarter of a century since any Dem won a statewide election in Texas. Why? Because the Republicans keep getting a higher and higher percentage of Hispanic votes as more and more Hispanics move up into the middle and upper classes of society. Republican candidates in this year’s election also saw a significant gain in their percentage of black voters.
Now, there is no doubt Texas Republicans have some work to do, especially with suburban and rural women, where they saw significant erosion of support in this year’s voting. Some of that is the Beto effect, but you sure can’t blame it all on that.
That is where the narrowing of the GOP majorities in both houses of the legislature could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, because those smaller margins are likely to force Republican leaders to focus on the state’s economic and budget matters in the upcoming legislative session, and leave all the social issues that tend to turn off those women voters on the sidelines.
In any event, any Democrat thinking they can just chalk up Texas’s mass of electoral votes to their party’s candidate for the presidency in 2020 or even in 2024 is just whistling past the graveyard.
Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon
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