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Predicting Trump’s Success Is Really Not Rocket Science

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

“How come you’re always right about Trump?” a friend asked me after he’d seen today’s news that the President had pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accord wealth redistribution scheme.  He was referring to my recent piece titled “For President Trump, Pulling Out Of Paris Is The Only Logical Move.”, which I wrote a week ago.

Well, first of all, I’m not always “right about Trump”. I’ve been wrong about plenty of Trump-related things since he announced his candidacy two years ago, and will continue being wrong about some things in the future.

Conceding that, I have had a pretty strong track record of being right about Trump-related predictions, certainly far better than the record possessed by those inside-the-Beltway “experts” who form what is held to be the “conventional wisdom” in the nation’s capital.  I told readers as early as October of 2015 that Trump was at that point pretty much a shoe-in to become the GOP nominee, due to historic trends in the GOP nominating process.  That was at a time when the George Wills, David Axelrods and every other DC pundit was writing him off because Ben Carson had assumed a temporary polling lead in the race.  I went into great detail as early as March 2016 about why Trump would beat Hillary Clinton in the general election, and held firm on that prediction through election day.

Since the election, I’ve also had a strong and very public record of predicting the things Mr. Trump would do and why he would succeed in doing them.  I still unashamedly predict he will serve a full first term and probably be elected to serve a full second term despite all the media-generated fake news hysteria surrounding his presidency thus far.  In fact, later in this piece, I’m going to tell you why that hysteria is most likely going to actually help him accomplish his major legislative policy goals.

But first:  why have I been mostly right about Mr. Trump where other, famous pundits have been almost unerringly wrong?  I’m afraid there’s no magic to it, no great genius on my part that accounts for it, and that the answer is really pretty simple:  I evaluate President Trump from the standpoint that he is an actual, fairly normal person, and I am old enough to be able to view first his candidacy and now his presidency through a lens of historical context.

In other words, it’s not exactly rocket science.  In fact, it’s very simple.

Dehumanizing a Person Clouds Judgment

Think about it:  the establishment, inside-the-beltway political class punditry have alternatively viewed Mr. Trump as either a) a clown (George Will, Charles Krauthammer, all the useful idiots in the NeverTrump crowd) or b) a monster (any liberal/progressive pundit/anchor/fake journalist you care to name).  To a person, regardless of their ideology, they view the current President as a freak, a complete outlier in the American political system, an illegitimate holder of the office whose every move is either stupid or outright evil.

They all immediately dehumanized Trump on the day he announced his candidacy, and by doing that, even the oldsters among them, like Will and Krauthammer, lost all ability to analyze his actions through the historical lens that they ordinarily bring to their public pronouncements.  Put simply, it is impossible to correctly predict the actions and potential of a man if you start by rejecting his humanity at the outset.

Now, the President does have a very mercurial personality, which makes it pretty much impossible to predict, for example, what he might decide to say on Twitter at 3:00 on any given morning, as with the whole “covfefe” thing.  On the other hand, when it comes to public policy, it’s actually very easy:  If Mr. Trump has made it a point to say he is going to do something, then he is almost certainly going to make a strong effort to get it done.  And if he makes a strong effort, his history shows he is very likely to win.  If one has the ability to analyze the political situation through an historical context, and has an understanding of how the political process works in Washington, it becomes fairly easy to predict whether or not he’s going to be successful.

Paris as an Example

The Paris Climate Accords is a good example of his doing what he has consistently said he is going to do.  If you read my Forbes piece, you know that my reasoning for believing he would pull the U.S. out of the Accords is due to the facts that a) he repeatedly promised to do so throughout his election campaign, and b) that he’s already gone about rescinding or rewriting pretty much every executive or regulatory action taken during the Obama years in their efforts to comply with the commitments Mr. Obama made on behalf of the country.   Thus, if President Trump had decided to remain in the Accord, the question would have become how in the world would he plan to bring the country into compliance with its demands?

Now, if you view Mr. Trump as an inhuman clown or monster who does things for no logical reason, then you can’t engage in the logical analysis necessary to reach that conclusion.  But if you view him as a human being – a pretty intelligent and wildly successful one, at that – then you already know that, where policy is concerned, he has shown a consistent bias towards acting in exactly this logical manner.  But he is human and humans make mistakes and often act illogically.  Paris could have turned out to be one such instance where Trump is concerned, but the smart money was always on his deciding to leave an agreement related to which he has already largely dismantled the country’s ability to comply.

Repeal and Replacement of ObamaCare

Repeal and replacement of Obamacare is another great example.  The “smart people” in DC largely expressed surprise that, upon assuming office, President Trump didn’t forget his promise to make it his top legislative priority and instead focus on easier things. Why?  Because they all believe he is an irrational clown or monster who doesn’t mean what he says.  But anyone who took the time to read Trump’s book and study his history had to conclude that he has throughout his life been someone who does basically what he has said he was going to do.  Yes, he’s open to negotiation over the details, but he has always worked to reach the overarching goals he has set.

Trump repeatedly promised during the campaign that repealing and replacing Obamacare would be his #1 legislative priority, and he has followed through on making it his #1 legislative priority.  Not tax reform, not anything else – Obamacare.  This should come as a surprise to…well, to no one.

When the first vote in the House failed, no one among the “smart people” in DC predicted that another, successful vote would take place less than a month later.  But it did. Why?  Because, right after the failed first vote, Trump issued a verbal “kill shot” at the members of the House Freedom Caucus, blaming them for the vote’s failure.  Not wanting to take that blame, it was the Freedom Caucus members who worked hardest to make sure a deal ultimately got made.

Again, that was all very predictable to anyone who had taken the time to actually observe how Trump influences people.

Now, we have Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell already complaining that he can’t see how he could ever possibly cobble together 50 votes to get Obamacare repealed and replaced, or on comprehensive tax reform, even though he and every other senate Republican who was up for re-election last year campaigned strongly on both promises.

Trump has been distracted recently by his international trip – a predictably very successful trip, by the way, despite conventional wisdom in DC that it would be a huge failure – and is now focused on getting his White House staff in order.  But it is a safe bet that, within the next couple of weeks, the President is going to begin to direct his kill shots and other means of persuasion on the Majority Leader, and that the Majority Leader’s rhetoric on those two big priorities will begin to “evolve.” In fact, he already began aiming tweets in McConnell’s direction on Tuesday.

The conventional wisdom in DC right now says that the President cannot hope to convince congress to act on major legislative priorities because of all of the leaks, impeachment talk and myriad other fake news that permeates the air waves.  This is utter nonsense.

In fact, the President obviously thrives on chaos, and has always viewed it as an opportunity rather than a hindrance.  Where congress is concerned, all of the sound and fury around Trump and the Democrats’ “Russia collusion” fantasy actually provides a great deal of cover for the legislative branch to get a ton of positive things done without attracting the main focus of a hostile press.  Despite all the false negative reporting about the President’s first 100 days in office, the truth is that congress sent more bills to his desk during that time than during the first 100 days of any recent president, more than twice as many as the Democrat-dominated 2009 congress sent to then-President Obama.

Why Scandal Talk Actually Helps

Where all the scandal talk is concerned, anyone with actual historical perspective would know that both Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton signed all sorts of major legislation during the periods of time when they were under threat of impeachment.  Those congresses, controlled by opposition parties, actually used those situations as leverage.  The reality today is that Republicans in congress have at least as much invested in both the Obamacare and tax reform issues as the president does.  Really even more so on tax reform, to which Mr. Trump was actually a late-comer.

Right now, pretty much all of the “smart people” in DC are telling you that Mr. Trump and the congressional Republicans will not be able to reach success on either issue.   They tell you this because their own de-humanization of the president clouds their judgment, and because of their lack of historical perspective.

Some Predictions

I’m telling you today, June 1, 2017, that President Donald Trump will, less than a year from today, have signed bills that repeal and replace Obamacare with a better system, and that enact major personal and corporate tax reform.  I’m also going to tell you that he will serve out his first term in office, be easily re-elected, and serve out his second term, unless the ongoing efforts by the Democrats and fake news media to de-humanize him and encourage violence against him and his supporters result in a successful assassination attempt, which is always a possibility.

But hey, who you gonna believe – me, or all those famous “smart people” who pop up on your TV each night?

This really is not rocket science.  Really.

Open post

CBS News Is Infested With Ghouls

Today’s Campaign Update

(Because The Campaign Never Ends)

  • And That’s The Way It Is…:  Shortly after last night’s bombing of the Ariana Grande venue in Manchester, England, CBS reporter David Leavitt, who is such a “professional” fake journalist that he has often bragged about how he is a proud part of the “resistance” against President Donald Trump, sent out the following Tweet:  “Multiple Confirmed Fatalities at Manchester Arena.  The last time I listened to Ariana Grande I almost died too.”  If you watch CBS to get your news, you are getting your news from a bunch of ghouls.
  • Oh, Noes!  Who cut off Maxine’s Mike????:  California’s African American Caucus is looking for answers right now about why the power to the mike was cut off right in the middle of an anti-Trump diatribe being delivered to their group by the supreme nitwit of today’s U.S. congress (which is saying an awful lot), Maxine Waters.  But no worries – Maxine could never be shut up just because the mike went out, as she told the crowd that “they try to shut me up all the time.”  No word on who “they” is, and why “they” are so damned ineffective at their job.
  • Of course, once you’ve sold your soul to the Clintons, “crazy” becomes a relative term.:  Well known spirit cooker and former campaign manager for The Most Corrupt Woman in America, John Podesta, gave an interview to a fake journalist at Politico in which he called President Donald Trump “absolutely crazy.”  He then went home to sacrifice his weekly goat.
  • Wait.  Someone needed Elton John to tell them this?:  In an interview with Variety, pop legend Sir Elton John told a fake journalist that the MTV era “produced many untalented musicians.”  In other news, water is wet.
  • Now that a special counsel is investigating, it’s the only reasonable action to take.:  Fake journalist heads all over the fake news media exploded on Monday when Mike Flynn’s lawyer notified the Senate Intelligence Committee that Gen. Flynn will not testify before that committee, exercising his fifth amendment rights.   It’s fair to remember that, when IRS scumbag Lois Lerner exercised her fifth amendment rights in live testimony, the very same fake journalists who condemn Gen. Flynn basically ignored the Lerner story.  Radio silence.  If fake journalists working for all these fake news outlets want us to stop referring to them as fake, the rank double standard by which they conduct themselves must end.  No one should hold their breath waiting for that to happen.
  • Speaking of Mike Flynn…:  Everyone does realize that Gen. Flynn is a registered Democrat, right?  Just thought that was worth repeating at this moment in time.
  • Meanwhile, in the realm of winning…:  President Donald Trump flew in Air Force One from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to Tel Aviv, Israel, marking the first time any plane has flown that route.  A truly historic moment in global history, which about 98% of the fake news media in America studiously ignored.   Pathetic.

Just another day in ghoulish fake news America.

That is all.

Open post

Today’s Campaign Update (Because The Campaign Never Ends) – 5.12.2017

  • Tired of winning yet?  Part I.:   Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reported on Thursday that its recent sweeps have resulted in the rounding up of more than 1,300 members of Mexican drug and human trafficking gangs.  The main talking point the Democrats and fake reporters in the fake news media were able to agree on was to focus on the fact that more than 800 of those arrested were U.S. citizens, as if anyone with functioning synapses in their cranial cavities gives a flying rat’s ass.
  • Tired of winning yet?  Part II.:  The Labor Department reports that new unemployment claims for the most recent reporting period fell to their lowest level since 1988.  1988, of course, was the last time we had a President of the United States who was not an integral part of the Washington, D.C. establishment.  Coincidence?
  • But the current President is getting bad, bad advice, and needs to shake up his communications team.:  During an interview with the sitting President of the United States on Thursday, NBC fake news anchor Lester Holt – the man with the highest forehead on the face of God’s green earth – chose to rudely interrupt Mr. Trump and repeat questions constantly in what was one of the most disrespectful interviews of any president in history.  Unfortunately, President Trump chose to sit calmly through the badgering without pushing back, something he certainly would not have done during the campaign.  This is an indication that he is taking advice from his establishment communications advisers, who are no doubt telling him that if he just plays nice with these fake journalists, they will eventually start playing nicer with him.
  • This is exactly the wrong advice for this particular President to accept.:  Donald Trump was elected largely because he refused to play nice with the fake news media, who have treated him as a political freak since the day he announced his candidacy.  He was elected because he was singularly unafraid of the fake news media, and he gave bombastic press conferences like the one he gave so well back in February.  That is the model of press engagement he should be following, not this model of trying to have calm, sit-down interviews with the preening, self-absorbed jack-asses who fake the nightly news.
  • But the people he has around him are all scared to death of the fake news media.:  They are all telling the President that if he doesn’t play nice with the Lester Holts of the world, why, he will get negative press.  And that tells you that they simply have no clue why Mr. Trump won the election in the first place, which was largely because he gets nothing but negative press.  Unfortunately, Mr. Trump is now making the same mistakes in this regard that every Republican president in modern times – with the exception of Ronald Reagan at times  – has made, accepting advice from communications advisers that is designed to work for Democrats, not Republicans.  It’s the only model these advisers know to teach, and it never works for Republican politicians.
  • President Trump desperately needs to fire most of his communications team, or move them into other jobs, and bring in new people who understand him personally.:  He needs to bring in people like Laura Ingraham, or Kimberly Guilfoyle of Fox News, both of whom have been rumored as potential senior communications advisers in the past, and both of whom clearly understand him as a person and as a political figure, and who would be loyal to the President.  A big shake-up needs to happen, and it needs to happen soon.
  • Here’s what he needed to do with Lester Holt yesterday.:  About the third time Holt interrupted him, he should have simply told Holt that he could either quit interrupting and show proper respect for the office he holds, or the interview would be terminated.  And then the next time Holt interrupted, he should have simply ended the interview.  Why?  Because instinctively, that’s what Donald Trump would do.  And Donald Trump, not these pathetic advisers, is who the American people elected to serve as President.  This is not rocket science.

Just another day in Fake News Media America.

That is all.