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The Eagle Ford Shale Finally Gets A Little Media Love

For most of the past year, the ongoing boom in the Permian Basin has sucked all the oxygen out of the room in terms of media reporting on the oil and gas industry in Texas.  The mergers and acquisitions frenzy of 2016 raised per-acre acquisition costs to $40,000, and that in turn led a rapid rise in the Permian’s rig count and subsequent drilling boom to take advantage of the higher oil prices that came about at the end of the year.  That story, which has resulted in the Permian’s becoming not only the nation’s largest oil producing basin, but also it’s second largest natural gas producing basin (more on that next week), is very compelling and needed to be told.

But the last year has seen another compelling growth story come about in the state’s other major oil play, the Eagle Ford Shale region of South Texas.  It’s a story in which the region’s rig count has more than tripled in a year, from less than 30 to more than 90, in which new-well productivity has more than doubled in less than two years, and in which the economic driver that turned this historically poor region into the nation’s hottest economic development area from 2011 thru mid-2014 has begun to rise again.

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Oil Prices: Expect The 2nd Half Of 2017 To Look A Lot Like 2H 2016

So here we are, right where I expected things to be last December, when I wrote my projections for 2017:  U.S. oil and gas drillers have activated almost 300 additional drilling rigs during the year’s first six months, U.S. oil production has soared as a result, offsetting much of the cuts implemented by OPEC and Russia, and the result is that the U.S. industry has drilled itself right back into a lower price situation , with the price for WTI hovering in the $44-$45/bbl range.

This very predictable response by the U.S. industry to the higher oil prices at the end of 2016 has effectively slowed the ability of the OPEC/Russia alliance to close the global supply glut, causing commodity traders to lose confidence.  Saudi Arabia is responding by significantly reducing its exports to the U.S., in the hopes of creating a few weeks of large storage draws, which they hope will restore investor confidence and cause the price to tick upwards.  They may or may not be correct – we’ll just have to wait and see.

In the meantime, U.S. rig additions have begun slowing somewhat over the past few weeks – although the week of June 10 – June 16 became the 22nd straight week of rising rig counts – as the industry begins to scale back its drilling plans for the 2nd half of the year in response to the lower price.  This again is no surprise to anyone who understands how the U.S. industry works, as I wrote in December:

  • But prices may rebound the second half of the year – Of course, a lower oil price will lead many producers to reduce drilling budgets during their mid-year reviews, and rig counts will cease to rise, and possibly even fall off somewhat.  With OPEC still at least making some effort to control production levels and global demand still steadily rising, a leveling-off of U.S. production should cause the market to rebound.

 

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In The Oil Patch Radio Show, Episode 114 – RRC Chairman Christi Craddick

Here’s our latest show featuring Christi Craddick of the Texas Railroad Commission! We also have the Associate editor of SHALE Oil & Gas Business Magazine, David Blackmon on the show to update us on where the price of oil is heading. Enjoy!

Listen to the Podcast Here:
Originally aired on 06/17/2017 – 06/18/2017 Episode 114 of “In The Oil Patch” This week on “In The Oil Patch”: host Kym Bolado and her cohost Alvin Bailey welcome Chairman Christi Craddick to the show.
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No, U.S. Shale Drillers Have Not Won A War With OPEC

  • More than 200 U.S. energy companies filing for bankruptcy in less than 2 years;
  • A commodity price about half of what it was 3 years ago;
  • Rig count half of the 2014 level;
  • An industry just now beginning recover from large layoffs during 2015 and 2016.

If the current state of the U.S. upstream oil and gas industry is what an industry looks like when it has “won” a war, then let’s not have any more wars, OK?

But that’s exactly what some in the energy-related news media would have you believe:  that the U.S. shale industry has succeeded in staring down the OPEC cartel’s effort to put it out of business and emerged victorious.  Several readers contacted me and ask me if that was not in fact the bottom line of the piece I posted last Friday, titled “OPEC Still Fundamentally Misunderstands U.S. Oil Industry.”

Well, no, that was not the point, but since some took it that way, I guess a fuller explanation is in order.

The point of that previous piece – one of the main points, anyway – was that the U.S. shale industry had survived fairly intact from an effort to kill it off. Still standing three years after the assault began, the industry is now leaner , more efficient, able to extract much higher volumes of oil from the same formations than it had been, and better equipped to withstand any future shocks, whether naturally occurring or artificially derived.

 

Read the Rest Here

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OPEC Still Fundamentally Misunderstands U.S. Oil Industry

A new report from OPEC estimates that crude oil production from non-OPEC nations will increase by 950,000 barrels per day during 2017.  This is a dramatic increase from last month’s estimate of a non-OPEC rise of 580,000 during the year.

This new, much higher estimate has raised concerns within the OPEC cartel that its efforts to balance the global supply/demand equation will require it to either extend its current production limitations into 2018, or to agree to even deeper cuts in its member countries’ own production levels.  Based on these concerns, the new report urges all non-OPEC nations to limit their own production:

A large part of the excess supply overhang contained in floating storage has been reduced and the improvement in the world economy should help support oil demand. However, continued rebalancing in the oil market by year-end will require the collective efforts of all oil producers to increase market stability, not only for the benefit of the individual countries, but also for the general prosperity of the world economy.

The report singles out U.S. shale producers as the main culprit for the lingering over-supply situation.  This is not surprising, given that overall U.S. oil production has risen by a whopping 800,000 bopd since last October, as U.S. producers have activated more than 250 new drilling rigs and implemented higher drilling budgets for 2017.

This expectation that U.S. producers are somehow going to join together with the national oil companies and controlled markets of OPEC, Russia and other countries to intentionally limit production betrays the same fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of the U.S. oil and gas industry that created the global supply glut  and resulting price collapse in the first place.

 

Read the Full Piece Here

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The Oil And Gas Situation – New Price, Production, Policy, Pipeline Targets Arise

Some thoughts on the domestic oil and gas situation as we move into May…

More rigs, more jobs, more drilling, but for how much longer…:  As I pointed out at the beginning of April, the U.S. oil and gas industry added more than 200 new active drilling rigs during the first quarter of 2017.  The pace of new rig activation slowed somewhat during April, but the count continued to rise as a total of 46 new rigs came online during the month.  The current U.S. domestic rig count of 870 is more than double the count of 420 at the end of April, 2016.

It will be interesting to see how much longer this upwards trend in the rig count will continue, given the softening oil price.  The corporate upstream companies have now implemented their capital plans for the first half of 2017, and are beginning the process of evaluating how those plans should be adjusted for the second half of the year.  The rising drilling activity and increasing demand for service companies and their products has predictably resulted in corresponding increases in service costs.  One would expect that, combined with a sub-$50 oil price, to result in a leveling off and possibly even a falling rig count for the last two quarters of the year.

But so much of that depends what OPEC does.: Will OPEC extend its current agreement to curtail production, which expires on June 30, or won’t they?  The answer to this question, more than any other single factor, will determine where the price of crude goes, and thus where the U.S. rig count and drilling budgets go for the second half of 2017.

 The 2017 capital budgets for the majors and the large independent producers who drill the great majority of wells in the U.S. were put into place in anticipation of a crude price at or above $50/bbl.  But the price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has recently fallen below that level due in large part to uncertainty about where OPEC will head beginning July 1.

 

Read the Rest Here

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In The Oil Patch – Mathusi Pahl (ep. 107)

In The Oil Patch – Episode 107: host Kym Bolado and her cohost Alvin Bailey caught up with Mothusi Pahl, Senior Vice President of Alphabet Energy! Mothusi and his team have taken huge strides in converting oilfield flares into a usable and extremely efficient energy source. You have to hear this interview!

As always, we also have our associate editor of SHALE Oil & Gas Business Magazine, David Blackmon with us to give us pertinent updates concerning the oil & gas industry.

Listen to the Podcast Here

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