Today’s Campaign Update (Because The Campaign Never Ends) – 5.20.2017

  • Democrats have now set themselves up with a big problem, thanks to their incessant, irrational talk about “Impeachment” over the last few months:  They now have a radical leftwing base that expects them to deliver the goods, and soon.  The trouble is, it’s a goal that is not deliverable any time in the foreseeable future.  In doing this, the Democrats have set themselves up with the very same conundrum that Republicans set themselves up with on Obamacare.
  • Why is it not deliverable?  First because, simply, the impeachment of a president requires there to be a crime.  So far, despite all the sound and fury and fake news reports based solely on unnamed “sources”, no crime has been identified.  Indeed, no crime on the part of President Trump has even been alleged, as confirmed by a series of former Obama officials, the now-fired Director of the FBI and every Democrat Senator who has been willing to opine on the question.  Hell, even the insufferable nitwit Maxine Waters was forced to admit this reality early this week.  No crime, no impeachment.  It really is that simple.
  • Second is the next reality that the impeachment process is managed in the U.S. House of Representatives, where the Republicans currently control a very large majority of seats.  The approval of articles of impeachment requires a majority vote in the house, meaning that, even if every Democrat were to vote in favor, dozens of Republicans would have to join them in that effort.  And getting to that point assumes that Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan would even allow such a process to begin on his watch.  Ryan has never been a fan of President Trump, obviously, but he is a loyal Republican, and it’s hard to imagine him allowing such a process to even begin on his watch, barring revelations that some real crimes have been committed by the President.
  • Third is the reality that Impeachment simply means that the house has voted to accuse the President of crimes that merit his removal from office.  The removal process is managed in the U.S. Senate, where again, Republicans have control, and where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has even more control over the process than Speaker Ryan does in the house.  Making things even more difficult, the actual removal of a president from office requires a 2/3rds vote of the senate, not a simple majority, so it is not something Democrats would be able to accomplish by simply having disloyal Rinos like John McCain and Lindsey Graham join them in the effort.
  • So basically, the Democrats, as the Republicans did seven years ago related to Obamacare, have now created an expectation among their base voters that they have no current way of satisfying, and let’s face it, the Democrat base is basically insane at this point in its overwhelming rage, and not known for its patience.  This is a segment of our society that behaves in such an irrational manner because it believes it is entitled to have its way.
  • The Democrats are now going to have to base their campaigns in the 2018 mid-term elections on a promise to impeach President Trump if they are given majorities in not one, but both houses of congress.  This is a promise that, absent the revelation of some real crime committed by President Trump, is likely to turn as many people off as it turns on.  It’s one thing to campaign against a piece of legislation, as the GOP did for the last 7 years; it’s quite another thing to base a campaign on the promise of never-ending chaos that is incredibly damaging to American democracy.  Democrat base voters don’t care about such things, but independent voters by and large do.
  • And here’s another pesky reality of life facing congressional Democrats:  they aren’t likely to win a majority in either house of congress in 2018, much less both houses.  House districts have been so expertly gerrymandered by both parties over the last 40 years that only a few dozen races will even be competitive, and Republicans will win their share of those competitive races.  Democrats might close the gap in the House, but odds are very remote that they will turn it completely.
  • The Senate is even tougher for Democrats, as more than half of their senate membership is up for re-election in 2018, and they will have to defend 25 of 34 seats that are in play.  Eight of those seats currently occupied by Democrats are in states that were easily won in 2016 by Donald Trump.  The most likely scenario for 2018 is that the Republicans will actually increase their majority in the Senate, not lose ground.
  • Where does that leave the Democrats in 2019?  It leaves them with an even angrier base of voters than they already have, though I know it’s hard to imagine that being the case.  Further, it leaves them with literally no way to placate that perpetually enraged base going into the 2020 presidential elections.  That in turn means that the Democrat Party will continue to migrate even further to the far left than it already is in its never-ending efforts to placate the rage.  That leftwards lurch will almost certainly result in a presidential nominee who is unabashedly socialist/fascist, like Bernie Sanders, who will be pushing 80 by 2020, or the Fake Indian Senator from Massachusetts, who will be easily marginalized as the nut job she truly is.
  • We have seen many Democrats now begin to back off from using the “I” word over the last couple of weeks, in part because of the appointment of a special counsel to investigate their Trump/Russia collusion fantasy, and in part because the smarter among them – like Sen. Feinstein – have worked through the same logical progression detailed above.  But this won’t last for long, because their base of perpetual rage-filled entitlement babies won’t allow it.
  • This is the house that the Democrats have built for themselves by allowing their worst nitwits to lead the party’s public messaging assault on President Trump.  Who knows?  Perhaps they’ll be able to manage it all to a successful conclusion.  But the odds are very much against it, because the process of impeaching and removing a president was devised by much, much smarter people than they are.

Just another day in premature impeachment frenzy America.

That is all.